QUOTE(goamerica @ Aug 12 2003, 10:16 PM)
QUOTE(Paladin @ Aug 12 2003, 11:57 AM)
Normally I would support the U.S. intervening in Liberia, but I think the timing is bad. With large numbers of troops already in Iraq and Afghanistan, and with North Korea and China remaining security threats we risk being strected too thin.
Since when has China been giving us trouble? Not since the U2 plane incident.
China has drastically increased military spending, and much of that has been spent on modernizing the PLA and purchasing ballistic missiles. They still view Taiwan as a rogue, breakaway province and have not ruled out pre-emptive action against the state. While I don't think war between Taiwan and China is imminent, it remains a possibility in the future. As such it is important that the U.S. does not stretch itself too thin and maintains a large military deterant. It is the same situation with North Korea.
Pentagon Details Chinese Military Build-Up
Aviation Week & Space Technology 08/04/2003, page 22
Robert Wall
Washington
China is boosting its military intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capability while fielding increasing numbers of ballistic missile and modern fighters, the Pentagon's latest report on Beijing's military capabilities indicates.
One of the more significant revelations is a looming shift in the strategic balance of power in east Asia. For instance, while Taiwan still maintains twice as many fourth-generation fighters as the Chinese air force, the PLAAF, last year's Pentagon assessment put that advantage at three-to-one. Moreover, the Pentagon now believes Chinese fourth-generation fighters "eventually will surpass those of Taiwan," while last year it merely noted that the gap between the two was narrowing.
The development is closely related to significant military spending by Beijing, in particular to import modern equipment. The Pentagon notes that for the fourth year in a row China is spending $2 billion on Russian hardware, double the average of the 1990s. Although Beijing claims it spends only $20 billion on defense, the real amount is $45-65 billion, the Pentagon estimates in its most recent version of the congressionally mandated report released last week. By 2020, the funding level is expected to increase by a factor of three or four.
One of the main beneficiaries of the willingness to spend money on Russian hardware is the PLAAF, which has bought Su-27s and Su-30s, and is license-producing the Su-27. Modern fighters in Chinese inventory are now estimated to be 150, a 50% increase over last year's estimate. The Defense Dept. report also indicates China may have overcome problems with Su-27 license production. Previous reports highlighted that the effort was progressing only slowly, but that caveat was dropped this year.
The number of modern fighters in China's inventory continues to represent only a fraction of the overall force of 3,200 fighters--last year's inventory was estimated at 3,400. China has been trying to retire some of its obsolete fighters as more modern versions are fielded.
The capabilities of the new fighters are further enhanced with the fielding of the Russian R-77 (AA-12) radar-guided air-to-air missile. China is using elements of the missile for its indigenous Project 129, also designated the PL-12 (AW&ST June 3, 2002, p. 26). Moreover, the Pentagon's review refers to, but doesn't confirm, Russian reports that China has agreed to buy a naval-strike version of the Su-30.
The U.S. assessment also directly mentions for the first time the Chinese-developed J-10 fighter, also referred to as the F-10. Although Chinese reports have indicated a small number may already be in service, the Pentagon asserts the J-10 will only become operational "in the next few years."
The Pentagon believes the Chinese air force will operationally deploy the J-10 fighter "in the next few years."
There are several other new twists in China's modernization plans. For instance, China is now able to increase its arsenal of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) more rapidly than before. Not only has the number of missiles deployed opposite Taiwan grown to 450 from 350, but the rate with which new ones are added has increased to 75 per year from 50. Additionally, the Pentagon now believes China is developing versions of the CSS-6 SRBM that could use satellite-aided guidance and, thereby, be able to strike Okinawa, where U.S. forces are based. The upgrade would also allow China to strike Taiwan from places farther inland.
The ballistic missile trend poses "a growing and significant challenge" to the U.S., Taiwan and allies, the Pentagon notes.
Chinese military (PLA) officials appear concerned that U.S. missile defense efforts will undermine their nuclear deterrent and that the shield would be extended to Taiwan. However, the Pentagon observes that resistance to Taiwan becoming a partner in missile defense efforts is more muted than before.
Despite the increasing numbers, Beijing's missile efforts appear to be suffering development problems, as well. The next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile, the DF-31, should be deployed "later this decade," the Pentagon said, after estimating earlier that it would be in the field by 2005. Moreover, the submarine-launched JL-1 is slated to be fielded only this year, after having been set for deployment last year.
For intelligence collection, China for several years has bet heavily on unmanned aircraft. However, the Pentagon study indicates the country is ready to pursue technologies to develop an unmanned combat aerial vehicle, a more sophisticated, armed unmanned aircraft.
Deployed reconnaissance drones include the ASN-206 and ASN-207, the Pentagon said. The ASN-206 has a 110-lb. payload capacity, 8-hr. endurance, and an 80-naut.-mi. range. The AN-207 doubles those performance parameters, although range could grow to as much as 325 naut. mi. when using a second AN-207 as a command-and-control relay. Payload options are believed to include electro-optical and infrared sensors, signals intelligence, jammers and decoys.
China also may have two surface-wave over-the-horizon radars for long-range surveillance, the Pentagon now asserts. Previously, it merely discussed the probable existence of the three sky-wave OTH radars. The country also plans to add Russian-made tethered aerostats with a sea-surveillance radar along its southeast coastline.
The Defense Dept. also is detailing new PLA efforts to bolster its information warfare capability, including "an unusual emphasis on a host of new information warfare forces." Augmenting that thrust are new specialized reserve units that are trying to create centers of excellence from which to grow "a corps of 'network warriors.'"
In addition to computer warfare, the military appears to be strengthening its electronic warfare (EW) skills, with units established to test new equipment and develop employment concepts. One of the more recent additions to Beijing's EW coffer is the Israeli-developed Harpy loitering anti-radiation weapon.
China also has long shown interest in directed energy, in particular, laser weaponry. Here, too, Beijing appears to be making progress by augmenting the existing laser blinder with a system to produce a false target to thwart laser semi-active-guided weapons. Another laser capable of blinding naval personnel may be in development.
In the space realm, the report notes that China is working on direct-ascent anti-satellite systems that could be fielded in 2005-10.
On the space-launch side, the Pentagon highlights China's development of a new, small solid-propellant launcher, the Kaituozhe-1 (also known as the Pioneer-1, KT-1, or KTZ-1). The effort is seen as only the first of several to allow the country to launch small satellites, possibly from mobile platforms. The country's goal by 2007 is to possess the ability to put 25 tons into low-Earth orbit and 14 tons into geosynchronous orbit.
U.S. anti-submarine forces in the coming years could also be facing a more formidable foe as they patrol near China. The country in the next two years is expected to deploy a new vessel, the Type 093-class submarine, that could eventually be equipped with the JL-2 next-generation submarine-launched ballistic missile. It will also serve as a cruise missile shooter. The Pentagon also confirms that China's contract to buy Project 636 Kilo submarines from Russia includes the 3M-54E anti-ship cruise missile. The subs would carry wire-guided torpedoes and the 53-65KE wake-homing torpedo. China already can fire the YJ-82 Exocet-like missile from its indigenously-built Song diesel subs.
The PLA continues to lag in army aviation, despite last year's acquisition of 40 Mi-17V5 helicopters. The Pentagon notes Russia and China are discussing the acquisition this year of another batch, these in the Mi-17V6 configuration. But "China still lacks a heavy-lift and a dedicated attack helicopter," the report states.
The Pentagon so far sees no clear signs what lessons China may have learned from U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, although it points out there has been much attention paid to the heavy use of special operations forces and mobile warfare. In the past, Chinese military thinking has been heavily influenced by U.S. military activities. Observations made during the 1991 Persian Gulf war shaped Chinese planning in the 1990s, while the 1999 Kosovo air campaign has significantly impacted military thought in recent years.
The Pentagon assessment highlights that in addition to buying arms and developing its own, China continues to run an active program to collect technical know-how from overseas by drawing on its huge diaspora. One cited example was an effort by two Chinese students to collect information on Terfenol-D, a rare metal developed by the Energy Dept.'s Ames Laboratories, which is used in aerospace and naval systems. These collection attempts are orchestrated at a high level, the report points out.