President Putin will attack America when it becomes clear to the Russian public and the broader international public that America has gone to far and is a threat to world stability. Although already the Russian people are increasingly fearful and distrustful of America they aren’t bloodthirsty and I would argue that for European, domestic opinion and the rest of the civilised world, the Russians will try to cause the least “collateral damage” – to use that lovely Pentagon phrase.

In other words, tactical nukes will be used as sparingly as possible, while long range non-nuclear missiles will be used to wipe out American military bases. Of course, there will be unfortunate casualties in highly densely populated areas near military bases, but that’s an inevitable result. The destruction of the Americas carrier fleets which is the essential means for the global projection of America power will be the potent result of this grand Pearl Harbour assault in the near-future.

The American reaction to the economic collapse and the military destruction of their military will be stunned shock, outrage, fear and impotence. It will be like 9/11 except without the worldwide sympathy and a thousand times worse. From then on, the decades of built-up anger, hatred and desire for revenge from peoples across the world, which the Americans are blithely ignoring even now, will terrifyingly retaliate.

The invasion of Iraq was a de facto declaration of World War Three on the European Union because Saddam had dared to trade in Euros, on Russia because Iraq has always been a long-time ally of the Kremlin and on China because Beijing needs Middle Eastern oil. In other words, the United States started the new Hobbesian clash of the great world powers since they all know that national or continental survival is at stake.

The best historical comparison would be the decline of the British Empire at the start of the twentieth century where new powers are competing in a transition from a Britannica unipolar world order to an emerging multipolar world order. Like now, the worlds superpower was hated and respected by everyone, but the difference lies in that Britain successfully managed the decline of its international power while America is going the way of Classical Athens to self-destruction.

Moreover, when will this mega Pearl Harbour occur? The earliest time will probably be 2006 once America destroys its remaining MX missiles and Putin knows that he can attack America without any threat of retaliation. What will this monumentious earth-shattering destruction of American power mean for the world, including the European Union? Well, the first direct consequence will be that New Europe, all those new nations joining will face a brutal choice between accepting the Franco-German-Brussel nucleus of the United Europe or withdrew into the claustrophobic embrace of a neo-soviet greater Russia. Even the most anti-EU pole will prefer the Europeans to the danger of a renewed Russian hegemony over their countries.

The British Eurosceptics will lose their main anchor in international relations and will be forced to embrace the European Project. Other nations will clamour to join the booming European superstate with its mammoth continental European economy and the protection of the new European Army from the hypothetical Russian threat. The Russians and Europeans will carve up eastern Europe into different spheres of influence, Russia will reunify with the traditional Slavic nations of the Ukraine, Byelorussia and the Caucasus with the Baltic States probably becoming satellites of the informal Russian empire. Similarly the American presence in Central Asia will be expelled and the Russians (with possibly Chinese competition) renew its hegemony in that desert region.

China, with a new Fourth Generation of military and civilian leaders, not caring about Communism but rather building a strong China, they are already preparing the ground;

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/EC22Ad01.html




The Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) in particular are war gaming and preparing for a clash with the Americans, but the Chinese are a highly intelligent and subtle race and their strategy will be to create a informal hegemony over East Asia. With the taking of the oil-rich Spratly Islands, China will probably become oil-sufficient and will be first-among-equals within the new East Asia. The North Korean hermit state, if it hasn’t been dissolved by the Americans, will either have unified the Korea, or it will be destroyed by the Chinese, since its use will be ended. As for Japan, its only rational choice will be to develop an alliance with China while trying to remain independent by closely aligning with the Russians.

The state of Israel, without American economic and military support will become bankrupt and will face total destruction by the combined Arab armies bent on annihilation. United Europe needs Arab oil too much to intervene, while the Russians will supply and support their Arab fraternal friends in their holy war. Whether the old ideal of the Nasserian pan-Arabian state is finally created, or whether the collapsing discredited regimes are replaced with a mash of different ethnic statelets is impossible to know at this stage.

Without America, will the Europeans manage to unite or will they dissolve into nationalistic squabbles? That is clearly a danger but since power is transferring to the supranational agencies and institutions, a new European elite which genuinely see themselves as European, may and should emerge. Remember 11,000 children of Eurocrats are now being educated in special European Schools throughout the Union, these are the next generation of European leaders. Unlike the older generations, this elite strata will view themselves as European first and there particularly nationality very much second in terms of personal identify. Of course, the masses will remain far more traditionally nationalistic and there is a remote danger of civil disorder. Already, Brussels is preparing for “non-military civil management” exercises in anticipation for these xenophobic elements of the masses.

However, I am confident that the new Europeans, which are going to lead the first united Europe in the 21st century, will remain strong and not given to these old-fashioned bigots of the dying age. Nothing can stop the European Project. With the destruction of the United States, there will be three superpowers in the world, the United States of Europe (USE) in the Euro zone, the neo-soviet greater Russia within the Rouble zone and a greater China within the Yuan zone.

Question: Presuming that the Americans are eliminated as a hyperpower, how will the world evolve?

You seem to totally neglect the principle of Mutual Assured Destruction, Thomas. Any nuclear attack launched against the United States from any country will assure that country of complete annihilation. It also doesn't take into account that a strike against the United States would not immobilize intercontinental U.S. forces. And we haven't been above secretly storing nuclear weapons at our bases abroad, incentive for remaining nations not to attempt any kind of coup de grace were we to be attacked.

Ignoring these lapses in your scenario and moving onto the question at hand:
Probably no differently than it has in the past with a new hyperpower claiming the throne over other nations, over extending itself and creating enough powerful rivals to topple them in the future, presumably repeating the cycle until we have the technology and recklessness to eliminate our species from the earth once and for all.

"It does not pay a prophet to be too specific." — L.S. de Camp

The fact is Abs, with the unilateral disarmament of America since the end of the Cold War, Russia has openly and secretly built up its nuclear forces. The MAD formula doesn’t work anymore, since when the MX intercontinental missiles are destroyed by America, it will be possible for the Russians to destroy American nukes.



http://www.ng.ru/politics/2003-05-14/1_vvs.html

http://www.cdi.org/russia/257-8.cfm



The destruction of American military power will occur, whether you like it or not.

For the most part any sane nation in this world is going to keep its nukes, i do think that the former soviet union is destroying its submarines, even though it wants to keep its main nuke research facility running. The u.s wants to pull away from missile accords and develop a anti-missile defense net, i think swords make swords so is that a good decision. From the collapse of the u.n and rampant pnac running about, the economic power is all you have to look at,
there you will find the basis i think for any strategic decisions being made. This is again the reason for nuke acquisition today, as to keep super powers away. Nukes seemed to make world war go away, but now you have them in the politics of power on all levels, its scary to say the least in a shrinking world.

http://www.tfd.chalmers.se/~valeri/Ajax/wt2.html



http://www.vectorsite.net/twcruz5.html

The expansion of conventional missiles by Russia.

These seem to concur with my own conclusion that Russia will avoid as much as possible the use of tactical nuclear weapons in favour of conventional missiles, at least against Great Britain.



Not only that, the avoidance as much as possible of atomic weapons will mean that politically the US Administration will find impossible to justify a nuclear attack on Russian civilian targets.

This article (http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/040103_what_if.html) explores the powerplay of the growing energy crisis, Europes burgoning emergence as a superpower (in alliance with Russia), and how major centres of power are planning the economic destruction of the United States.

We don't have a missile defense for them to defeat. Even if we did, and they were capable of defeating it, that doesn't mean that they will attempt to. Being able to strike the United States still says nothing about the ability of the United States to strike back.

The unilateral disarmament? For all the links you've cited you've left out those which detail the reported covert actions of the United States as well. It wasn't but in a report last year that the current administration was making pushes for more, newer nuclear technology. To my knowledge American nukes could easily be launched in the time it would take a Russian nucler attack to reach and destroy the missile silos here in the United States.

The Russians appear to be no more sneaky than our own American government. Simply strategizing and having the ability to strike, again though, does not mean that either country will strike the other.

Yes, that is true. That does not, however, mean that it will happen as a result of a Russian attack or an attack by any single nation. For all we know American military power could simply fall from the ranks without being destroyed, only to face destruction at a later date at such a time when American influence has already declined significantly.

Getting back to your specific question for debate:
"Question: Presuming that the Americans are eliminated as a hyperpower, how will the world evolve?"

I still stand by my original speculation (take note that's all it was, Bikerdad). Working specifically with your fanciful notion that Russia will be the nation to bring America to its knees, and my speculation that a Russian attack would likewise cripple Russian military forces, China seems the obvious candidate to fill the power vacuum immediately after such a hypothetical situation.

China, by the way, seems much more the likely candidate for launching a random nuclear attack upon the United States, having recently established in a military report that they would be willing to exchange nuclear attacks, surrendering the hundreds of thousands of lives to defeat America in such a war.

According to the PDD-60 the Clinton decision directive (to the military) to absorb a nuclear first strike and not rely on Launch on Warning, a powerful deterrent to nuclear attack. Note, that has not been resceded by Bush.

So, the fact is that current procedure accepted by Bush means that America would absorb a nucleur strike before retaliating - and by then it will be too late.

Presuming that the Bush Administration succeeds in its fraudulent reelection next year in the presidential elections, how will the strategic realities of the world evolve? Clearly, the fascistic Patriot Act II which Attorney General John Ashcroft wants to install would end the remaments of American civil liberties and the Bill of Rights. Domestically the Bush regime will expand its oppressive domestic security apparatus: Homeland Security to deal with potential public disorder as socio-economic pressure on the ruling elite strengthens.

The American national debt, which is bubbling along at the top of the US Treasuries legal right to float new debts is one of the greatest financial problems facing the Bush regime. Authoritative sources appear to suggest that the planned privatisation of Social Security and Medicare, where hundreds of billions could be unlocked into the stock market. The resulting boom and than ensure that the US government could repay much of its national debt, at the expense of ordinary folk.

Overseas, the invasion of Iraq ensures that one of the largest oil-producing nations is now under American occupation, and thus can be withdrawn from the oil-cartel OPEC. Since OPEC is considering the shifting from the dollar to the Euro, it is a economic imperative for the present US regime to use military force to end that potential threat to the economic basis of American global emporium. Furthermore, through the control of the oil production the threat of an Arab embargo of Americas increasing energy needs can be avoided.

Unfortunately however, for the neo-conservatives, the growing guerrilla resistance movement, dominated initially by Ba’athist networks of die-hard supporters of the old regime have proved to be a hard struggle to destroy for American soldiers. The sabotage of oil pipelines by presumed Ba’athist supporters clearly shows that a quick recovery and end to insecurity as imagined by the strategists in Washington has broken down on the ground of Mesopotamia. Even more worrying for the American authorities is the recent growth of non-Ba’athist armed resistance movements, which appear to be the start of a mass resistance in the coming years. The efforts to install a pliant pro-Western regime which will accept the fundamental requirements for the American authorities (sell in Dollars, withdraw from OPEC etc) appears increasingly unlikely.

The second term of a Bush Administration will almost certainly lead to a revival of rumours of a Al Quieda terrorist atrocity on the American mainland, and only the political shock of a second 9/11 could the Bush regime force through regressive passages like a diluted Patriot Act II. The growing divergence of the American national consciousness, contributed by the ever more ultra-patriotic US network media’s competing for more viewers, to the rest of the world community will continue to widen. The effect of this will almost certainly be either a regional war in North Korea or the Islamist regime of Iran, or conceivably both.

A war whether started by an increasingly paranoid Kim Jung II in the bizarre hermit kingdom of North Korea or a covert US involvement in an attempted popular uprising in Tehran would have severe strategic implications. North Korea has cultivated relations with the strategic behemoths Russia and China, and neither would like to see American troops on the border of Manchuria. Similarly within Beijing, there is a growing consensus among the Communist ruling elite and among the populace that America has designs of Chinese sovereignty, which must be repulsed. The Chinese armed forces are aggressively planning for a war either directly with America or with Taiwan, the “rebel” province supported by the American navy.

Even more potentially dangerous would be a blatant American intervention within Iran, to support the democratic reformers and destroy the nuclear ambitions of Tehran. Iran is a close ally of Russia, and President Putin would see an attempted “regime change” in Tehran tantamount to a declaration of war on Russia. The removal of Iran would be easily justified to the American masses, particularly after a second terrorist atrocity, but it is highly unlikely that either Great Britain or Europe as a whole would support America. Such a US intervention would heighten international tensions to a high degree, and severely test the “special relationship” between Washington and London. Without Tony Blair to smooth over relations, the new PM by then (probably), Gordon Brown, in greater need to gravitate himself with the Labour Left, would shift closer to Europe.

Russia and China are strategic allies, as shown in their treaty they signed under Yeltsin and Jiang and both see the United States as a malevolent threat to their national sovereignty and geopolitical interests. Putin, to the anger of many nationalists within the state bureaucracy and the military has been forced to accept the vast expansion of American military bases and influence throughout Central Asia since 9/11. Since Russian strategists see Central Asia and the “khan” states as part of the “near south” and a natural part of Russian hegemony, a window of opportunity to remove the basis of American hyperpower will be taken advantaged off.

Similarly China, under a Fourth Generation of leadership obsessed with seeing a strong, mighty Middle Kingdom regaining its traditional cultural and political “soft” hegemony over East Asia, including Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam and Indonesia see America as a regional rival. For China, the objective is to make China seem like a benevolent hegemon compared to a gangsterish America, and more importantly destroy America’s naval ability to project its global power.

For both states, the window of opportunity will be between 2006-2008, when the Americans will destroy their MX intercontinental missiles and before the missile defence initiative comes into fruition. Whatever international crisis occurs, Iran, North Korea or potentially another state, it will be used as a pretext for the liquidation of Americas military basis. However, for the new twentieth-first century strategists, military strategy is only one part of a multi-strategy that includes economic warfare, currency battles and cultural influences. The great Achilles heal of the American “Empire” is the dangerously vulnerable “dollar hegemony” to use Alan Greenspans phrase.

The European Project was foundered on a desire for Europe to end its subjection to the whims of the superpowers, the Soviet Union and the United States. Although the growth of a distinct European identity has been a rocky one, for the first time since end of the Roman Empire the majority of Europe now as a economic and monetary union, through the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Euro. With the planned enlargement of the EU into Eastern Europe, where “New Europe” will join the Euro, a massive economic superpower is being born. By 2006, when Britain, Denmark, Sweden and Greece are likely to have joined, the addition of these four states (along with the first wave of enlargement), the Euroland will have a estimated 430 million inhabitants, and a economy of 8 trillion dollars. This will be 11 per cent large than the US economy.

Presuming that the European Constitution (which will rename the EU the United Europe) is passed by the member states, a confederal state will emerge based on majority voting. With the military moves by Washington to intimidate the Arab world into keeping the dollar, there is little need or desire among Europe’s architects in Brussels or Hamburg to sustain the transatlantic alliance. With the growing anti-Americanism throughout the world, the pressure among their respective governments to punish American unilaterism by switching to the Euro is only going to increase, ironically as a reaction to American efforts to stop that market movement.

Throughout Europe, opposition to the Bush Administration and their destructive policies is growing and with NATO irrelevant, the main traditional basis of the relationship between Europe and America is broken. The growing strategic partnership with Moscow is based partly on a shared fear of American unilaterism, but also on economic needs. Europe is now importing vast amounts of Russian oil, and because of this France and Germany both desire to become closer to Russia. Since these two countries dominate the United Europe in a showdown between America versus Russia, Europe will plump for the Kremlin for sound economic and geopolitical reasons.

The change from the international reserve currency from the dollar to the Euro will have devastating consequences for the American economy. Capital and foreign investors will flee America and this will lead to banking crises which even the Federal Reserve will find difficult to manage. Moreover, in retaliation the Arab world will inevitably move to punish America for its arrogance in invading Iraq in 2003. Supported by Russia, China and Europe (which will be supported by Russian oil), a oil will be used to punish the American economy. Without oil, the US economy will grind down, causing unprecedented crisis among the markets, which will lead a mass financial panic out of the American financial system. With more than one leading American bank facing bankruptcy, the efforts of the Fed to bail them out will be impossible considering that the whole banking system will be facing financial meltdown.

However, even the collapse of the over-confident bubble American economy will only be part of the strategic assault on the United States. For years, Russia has been planning a surgical strike against America’s military bases worldwide and its navy in its long-term desire to humble and destroy their superpower rival. Using conventional missiles American military bases in Britain will be destroyed, Russian submarines will use tactical nuclear weapons to destroy America’s naval carriers, its leading military bases like San Diego in the Pacific Ocean, while conventional and nuclear missiles will destroy military bases on the American mainland and overseas. With the American economy in financial meltdown, the destruction of the military of the United States of America will be the final touch in the systemic liquidation of the hyperpower of America.

As I have repeated before, the violent end of the American Century will result primarily in the Euro becoming the world reserve currency. Moreover, a genuine European superstate will evolve, a new greater neo-soviet Russia regaining its traditional hegemony in the “near south”, Ukraine, Byelorussia and the Baltic States while China will absorb the “rebel” Taiwan province and becoming the dominant regional power in East Asia. The beneficiaries of the Second Pearl Harbour will be the European citizens who will become part of a economic, political and military superpower, the Russian elite which will regain mastery over the former Soviet Union, and China which will re-establish its traditional hegemony over East Asia.

The reaction of America will be to return to isolationism, and to slowly rebuild her military strength. With millions unemployed the wealthy elite will face grave socio-economic unrest among an angry populace; the optimists will argue that the American people will demand a return to the traditional republican virtues of their Founding Fathers. The pessimistic will argue that a fascist oligarchal dictatorship will be imposed on a frightened middle class fearful of their property from the anarchic disorder of the unemployed American underclass. Either way, America will become a second-league great-power determined to avoid foreign entanglements as so prophetically warned by President Washington.

South America, ravished by decades of huge foreign debt, IMF imposed programmes which have devastated the populace will become under the control of neo-Marxist leftist populists who will consolidate their hold over their political, economic and social systems. President Lulu of Brazil through the Workers Party, Chavez in Venezuela and others who have been elected to power that will develop anti-American alliances opposed to American influence in south-central America. Despite the potential of Brazil, a socialist economy will frustrate rather than bring forth the economic potential.

India will develop closer relations with its traditional ally Russia in fear of China and her ally Pakistan. Presuming that a suicidal nuclear Armageddon is avoided by the respective nations India will develop into a strong economic power in the 21st century. Pakistan without the American support will become closer to her traditional supporter China, and thus a cold war will emerge once other unifying enemy of America is destroyed by Russia and China. In conclusion, the post-American world will be a trilateral global order with United Europe, greater Russia and China the three great superpowers. The second-league of powers will be the United States, India, Japan and the Brazilian led south-american neo-Marxist bloc.

Thomas,

Don't you think, given the current situation, that most world leaders (Putin included) would not risk overtly attacking the United States, especially the US homeland?

I can see where such a plot might "fly under the radar" given our current focus on international terrorism (rather than monitoring the Soviets as we did during the Cold War).

But think about this: Bush is much more the cowboy than Clinton ever was. Clinton's order may stand, but if ICBMs are launched from Russia, I think we would have about an hour to make a decision over retaliation. During that hour, we would most likely be able to identify the location(s) of the launches. And I am sure that the US military has an appropriate "relatiation" plan already in place (they probably war game this one alot). Bush does not seem to me to be the type to hesitate on returning fire in such an event, even given somewhat limited evidence and a limited time frame.

In short, I do not think that the US military would be so easily decapitated. For one, the US nuclear submarine arsenal is one of the great unknowns. They would also need to nuke several carrier groups to ensure no retaliation from that front, since Russia does not possess the appropriate maritime force to destroy our Navy.

Besides, NATO is still in force. Attack on the US by the Russians would necessitate retaliation by our European "allies", unless they were in on the whole thing. If they were, I don't feel that such a plan could be kept secret.

An interesting "what if?" scenario, but not much else...

So we should all appease to Bush than? No thanks, I think you'll find that Putin and others are determined to destroy America before America attacks them. In case, you think thats over-the-top first recognise that Putin and his circle are Chekists brought up on the fear of America as a enemy of Russia and secondly the expanionist plans of the neo-cons and the PNAC document.


Sure about that? Anyway according to this link, even if the Pentagon wanted to, they couldn't do anything against the Russians:





Hmmm, if Russia doesn't declare war, Europe will probably prefer to sit quiet. Anyway the Europeans will so dislike America by then that a NATO slip of paper will mean nothing, just like how international law is irrelvant to the US.

For once, I'm inclined to agree with Amlord...(what is the world coming to?)

All of Thomas's links focus on Russia's strike ability, but none of them seem to look at the many alternative ways by which global power... even military power can be maintained.

....especially by the US



http://www.knoxstudio.com/shns/story.cfm?p...06-24-03&cat=AN

Given the type of research, being done in America today, it is not long before we see unmanned aircraft, using directed energy weapons, (which not even a SCRAM jet could out run) patrolling without pause over America.

At the same time, America dominates the world's economy, dominates its trade and military ally the EU, and is years, even decades ahead of its military opponants.

The thing that I am wondering is simply this; In the years directly preceeding the F117's emergence into the public eye, there were all manner of rumours floating around as to what the new aircraft looked like.

But no one got it right.
My point is, its easy to speculate and dismiss the USA's future role, but the truth is, none of the journalists we quote here, or even the Russian analysts Thomas quotes, have any idea what is about to emerge from the dark research labs in Nevada.

I wonder just how well would Moscows defences do against armoured, laser toting stealth, robotic nukes?

As for the original question.

I doubt Russia will emerge as the new 'hyper power' should the US fall. Quite frankly, I don't think the Russians have ever demonstrated the ability to successfully run even their own nation, let alone the rest of the world.

Should America fall though, I suppose a new world order would emerge with Europe helping the USA back on its feet to oppose the Chinese.
Should the Russians attempt to dominate Europe though, I imagine that such a course of action would only tie Europe down in strife and disorder and allow the Chinese the breathing room to envelope and assimilate all the other Asian powers. Japan would be first.


here are some related articles;

US UAV’s demonstrate interoperability; http://www.spacedaily.com/news/unmanned-co...combat-03d.html

Lockheed teams up with Northrop Grumman for unmanned fighter project; http://www.spacedaily.com/news/unmanned-co...combat-03f.html

US back in nuclear making business; http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/04/23/...0777304686.html


editted to add:



I seriously doubt that. If Russia launched a strike against America, then NATO would swing into action. The military infrastructure of the European continent is still in place against a possible attack from the East.
If the attack was a surprise then granted it may take longer than it ought for a counter strike to be launched from central Europe, but the nations of this continent, would not sit idly by and let the Russians attack a NATO member.

Moif I don't doubt that the Americans are developing their own secret technology but despite the weak economy of Russia, its military-industrial complex is still strong and Russia itself is developing laser weaponry and goodness knows what else.



http://www.afpc.org/rrm/rrm272.htm

This source confirms that the Russians developed a Star War programme, it would be fantastically naive to think that they are not developing now such weaponry.

http://www.flug-revue.rotor.com/FRheft/FRH...012/FR0012e.htm

Read this and cry:



Let us not forget that Clinton (because his 1996 election was funded by the Chinese Communists) gave vast amounts of military secrets to the Chinese under his presidency.





Since Russia and China are working together we can presume that Russia has developed such programmes, and considering that they were developing such things during the Cold War, they may be more advanced than the Chinese - let along the Americans.



Guess who gave them that?! Clinton! it also explains now the Chinese and Russians will destroy US nucleur submarines.



http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article....RTICLE_ID=15233

er... aren't you derailing your own thread here?

Moif I was only trying to explain how this will occur.

Now presuming that this Second Pearl Harbour does occur successfully, what do you think will happen? How will ordinary Americans react, considering that America will be in a deep recession by then?

This article by a leading historian who predicted the downfall of the USSR during the 70's is very interesting:

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/a...article4381.htm



This is what I argue, and even Americas strength in its military will soon be demolished in the next three-five years.

on the US economy:

Thomas.

Unfortunatly, I have run out of time. I was reading up for a larger response, but alas, I shall have to make this brief.

I believe Putin is gearing up for negotiations and future issues, and intends to use the old Russian strategy of arguing from a position of strength. I really doubt Russia would profit from a nuclear strike against America.

Here is an article which you may be interested in, given your studied reflections on this issue;

http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/2003/ja0...a03webster.html

Back to the original question, while I do not think that the US will fall as a military power very soon if ever, if it happens I think we can say good bye to Palestine, I think Britain could potentialy rise as a power, so could North Korea . But Russia, I doubt it, aren't they pretty poor right now. Aren't we one of their major trading partners? Without us who else do they have [now that we've taken our Saddam ]?

CP

Fascinating article Moif, but Russia seems to be gearing up in terms of defence spending and missiles, implying that some form of strike on America will be on the cards.

So it seems to me that the opposite is the case, Russia will strike when it can from a position of strength before the Pentagons MD programme gets up and running. Secondly the traditional Russian strategy is to talk from a position of weakness, and take advantage of their enemies weaknesses, in this case the United States.

As for laser technology, I imagine that Russia and China are developing countermeasures to anything the Americans are developing.

Conservpat, firstly Britain will never develop into a renewed global power, it is now part of the European Union. Secondly, Russia may be poor in terms of consumer and the masses standard of living but its miltiary-related industries and arms industries are booming. As for trading partners, France was Germanys biggest trading parter in 1939... so that argument is illogical.

See http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0...,992246,00.html

As for Saddam, the benefits of growing anti-Americanism in Russia, Europe and the rest of the world vastly outweighs the loss of the Hussein regime.

Wha? Who said anything about Germany and France? Sorry I'm misunderstanding you.

CP

CP, he's drawing a parallel between today and the world right before WWII. The fact that Germany traded with France didn't stop them from invading.

I want to remind you, Thomas, that the U.S. was in a recession at that time as well. In fact it was a recession so severe it's called The Great Depression. The war was the best thing that could have happened to the American economy then, and who's to say World War III wouldn't have the same effect? And despite all the military secrets we gave to China, I find it hard to believe that they could have caught up to us, especially since they have a much poorer economy. The same goes for the Russians. If they developed all this technology, where did the money come from to fund their research?

Over the course of the next 15 years, only a deliberate decision on the part of the United States would prevent the "glassification" of any nation that delivered a massive nuclear strike on the US.

The MX missile system was merely upping the ante, the real "throw" lurks below the waves. We have 18 Ohio class SSBNs, each with 24 Trident missiles. Each Trident missile carries 8 warheads. Do the math 18x24x8 = 3456 300-475kt nuclear warheads, accurate to within 120 meters over a range of 4,000+ miles. Assuming that 1/3 of the Ohios are in port (and thus destroyed in a massive first strike), another 1/3 are destroyed by OpFor ASW, that leaves 3456/3 = 1,152 nuclear warheads to delivered.

This assumes that the entire land based strategic missile arsenal is destroyed, all the B-1s, B-2s and B-52s are destroyed, all sea and land based tactical nuclear weapons are neutralized or destroyed. Otherwise, given the trademark American lunacy (Doolittle's Raid, anyone?), you can be sure that your friendly neighborhood F-15 will load up with tactical nukes, meet a KC-135 somewhere, and continue on a one way mushroom run to the offending party. Los Angeles class SSN will pop up launching nuclear tipped cruise missiles, and, as noted, there's still the carrier groups, able to "reach out and touch someone."

But, let's play the game and assume that SOMEHOW (pay no mind to the man behind the curtain), the American military is utterly neutralized, and America is no longer a "hyperpower", but instead just a really big, really sassy cow ready for the milking.

Blood, fire, war, pestilence, disease and death will stride across the globe as it has never done before. The Four Horsemen will have a fine old time. Between squabbling over the spoils in America, settling old scores, and just basic ambition, the world would plunge into a long dark night such as it hasn't seen in more than 5 centuries. Billions of people will die.

Every tinpot conqueror's ambitions today are clearly circumscribed by "what can I get away with without attracting the American's attention?" The foundation of the world economy is America. The vaunted 'international culture' is, at its core, 70%+ American. The European Union would fall apart faster than a house of cards, unless Russia were a really significant threat. Hopefully, they would fight their wars by proxy, in foreign lands, otherwise the forests, plains and cities of Europe will once again see massive armies clashing. Asia would descend into vicous competition between China, Japan, and the Asian Tigers. Africa would briefly explode, then succumb to a new wave of 1st world colonialism, while the Israelis would make very short work of those who threaten them.

Mexico would collapse into anarchy, as the economic support that millions of illegals sending gringo dollars home dries up. Further south of the border, things wouldn't be much different, except that the 1st world powers of Asia and Europe would be looking very hungrily at the unprotected resources of the New World (no more Monroe Doctrine!). Oceania would, on the short term at least, be least affected, although Australia and New Zealand would find themselves in the peculiar situation of having to actually provide for their own defense against the regional ambitions of India, China and Japan.

America is the keystone of the modern world. Remove it, and it will all come tumbling down. Over the course of time, as the modern world gradually changes, so to will America's role. In the short term (20 years) though, all roads lead to America Long term? Who knows, but lets plan on finding out.

Power abhors a vacuum, and the sudden removal of American military power will lead to a substantial reduction or outright elimination of American economic and cultural power. That equals one hellacious vacuum. Anybody every see "wind tunnel" experiments with big vacuums? Looks just like a tornado...

How does this effect your ideas Bikerdad? How would the destruction/neutrialisation of Americas military satellite fleet effect the Pentagon in such a crisis?



The Russians plan to destroy those carrier groups using tactical nucleur weapons.



Again, Moifs and my links all confirm this aggressive build-up of the military. The rational question is, considering that there are so many things (education, health, crime etc) that Russia could be spending, why are they expanding their nuclear and missile programme? Clearly there is a rational strategic plan and vision behind this military strategy which should be of interest for informed observers.





A successful strike against the political and military leadership of America could paralyse any efforts to counter-attack the Russian nuclear strike.



Clearly, the Russian General Staff have been planning for such a strike for YEARS



How true. A nuclear and conventional strike against military targets, with the Russian leadership sending messages in the Hot Line (?) that sylvan targets are being avoided as much as possibly. This will make it difficult and near politically impossible for the Americas leadership (presuming that are still alive) to strike against major Russian cities .



This was a number of years ago, with the new technology of laser weaponry being developed to bring down American missiles, Russia should be protected from any hypothetical counterattack.

Of course this all presumes that Putin and his circle of nationalist, anti-American, Chekist and neo-Communist military leadership remain in charge of Russia in the coming years. The oligarchs, led by Mikhail Khodorkovsky are engaged in a ruthless power-struggle at the moment with Putin and Khodorkovsky is supposed to be pro-American and pro-Western who wants to improve relations.

Considering that Russia has had a AMD system in Moscow since Stalins time, and has developed laser technology - according to that article - I would imagine that it has defence systems designed to destroy any incoming missiles. Secondly its air fleet would attack any incoming US aircraft.

On Asia, there are signs that many of the Asian Tigers are starting to accept Chinese "soft" hegemony over the region and traditionally that has never been problem. I doubt, with the possible exception of the Spratla Islands, any war between those powers. Apart from the economic devastation, (and China needs high growth rates to remain socially stable) of such a war, it would go against all the trends of growing co-operation between the major powers.

Without US influence India and Pakistan may go nucleur, but that would be a regional conflict, I would find it highly unlikely that Russia and China would directly intervene in such a situation.

Africa would be no worse of than now, apart from more civil wars, ethnic cleansing etc, but frankly those are inevitable, whether America is the hyperpower or not.

Japan although it is starting to develop its "self-defence" army is in no position in the near or medium future to start a regional war against China. At worst you may see a Cold War between Japan, China and Russia but I doubt that actuall warfare will occur.

On the European Union, with the destruction of America, the main plank of the Euro-sceptic position in Britain would end, meaning greater support for the European Project. France would be happier to support intergration, in other words the EU would strengthen, not collapse. Moreover the "new Europe" nations would clamour to be part of a growing intergrationist Europe, in fear of the Bear to the East. The federalist vision of Europe would strengthen although you may see a more Fortress inward looking Europe, fearful of the chaos outside the West.

The Bush Adminstration seems to be aware of the Russian and Chinese threat:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?...09/MN124394.DTL



The growing crisis in North Korea could lead to the massive strike against America which the Trans-Asian Axis are planning:



in other words, if America attacks North Korea, China and Russia will attack America and forcibly stop the growing fascistic Amerika.