I needed to go away and join a few other debating sites with the objective of seeing other facets of the world and the mess it is in.
I go walkabouts at times
One thing is for sure.....AD has few peers.

I offer these among many of the links I gleaned on this subject.

The reason for Invasion?
http://www.feasta.org/documents/papers/oil1.htm

Iraq/Oil/Euro?
http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/2000/11/01112000160846.asp

The Euro
http://www.wsws.org/articles/1999/jan1999/euro-j21.shtml

My prime question is this..........
Is the yankee dollar in danger being replaced by the Euro as an international oil and commodity exchange unit?

Regards....Alan

Wow- a whole new perspective on this for me- but as far as the Euro really going to war with the dollar- not bloody likely until the Europeans themselves start accepting it- didn't Sweden just turn it down? I am a US patriot, but I think we have an artificial economy because of the stated dollar standard and a couple other things that bother me, foreign dependence on oil, possible expansionist empire building etc- so I am working my butt off trying to make sure I am collapse proof financially. BTW- my Grandfather saw the depression coming the same way, and was filthy rich at the end of the depression because of it- after being teased and called a fool for not investing in the stock market prior to 1929-

So the answer to the question is no- I do not think the Euro has a chance until the European becomes more than just a fancy idea and REALLY is homogenous in nature. Then the competition will really begin. The southern European countries are a real drag on the northern European countries as well- Spain, Italy, Turkey, economy wise, and horrible buearacracy wise- so until the rest of the Union drags them up, there will be problems there as well IMO

Take a peek at the way the Europeans are starting to agglomerate.

America has no longer anything unique to offer the World that cannot be got from Europe and Asia...cheaper.
The Euro is always been backed by a gold reserve wheras the yankee dollar has not.
The US is US$1.5 trillion dollars in debt, and increasing wheras the European community is in surplus.
The euro has a gold reserve wheras the yankee dollar has non.

I suggest you thank president Truman and the Rothchilds for losing out
http://www.www.natreformassn.org/statesman/98/gold.html

Sadly America is dying, and may not even rate a historical spot in the top twenty empire list.
Throttled by its own political incompetance and monstered by its own brand of public apathy America never stood a chance.

So sad and such pity.

Regards..Alan

I wouldn't say that America is dying, but what I can assure you that it will go one step down from its position of current dominance to become 'a superpower among superpowers' (like Europe, China, Japan and others that are to rise).

Completely false. Both the European Central bank and ours have gold reserves, but neither currency is backed by the gold standard. The Euro is just as much (arguably more) a 'statement of account' as the American dollar.


link

Thanks for your sympathies, though.

American dollar is dying?

The American Dollar is currently being replaced as the currency of choice....for now. But once the American economy starts to re-strengthen, the dollar will become superior again. The Euro is being held on by a thread of luck for now because of some crippled economies in Germany and France.

From what I remember reading while in France, its not the French and German economies that are crippled, but Spains and Italy's. They have a higher unemployment rate, and a more stagnant job market. But that was five months ago, maybe something's changed.

And Im not sure why you think that dollar isnt threatened by the Euro, for over a year the Euro has been worth more, and it doesnt seem to be declining. Well, there was one glorious day when it was .90 to the Euro, but now its back down to .88

It makes little difference, both currencies are freely traded. A sinking dollar is not neccesarily a bad thing. Tends to be bad for the consumer but good for the worker. Makes American goods less expensive abroad. I see no signs of rampant inflation on the horizon.

I think the English pound has been worth more than the dollar for over 200 years.

The US was burdened with a much greater debt to GDP ratio following WWII. We can get over this. The demographics do not favor the EU in the long run. They are stuck with an aging population with insufficient population growth. pension funds in much of Europe are in even worse consdition than our Social Security.

France Unemployment: 9.5%


I don't know about Spain and Italy's numbers, but here is France's

In my opinion, yes the there is a dollar/euro war being waged quietly on the sidelines.
See my post in last night's thread for links http://www.americasdebate.com/forums/index...opic=2623&st=45

This has covered all the links listed minus your last one Al. As spectators to a world dilemma we must be content in watching from the sidelines. I think people should take the time to monitor the markets at a time like this. Money or a loss of influences political behaviour. A better perspective of what is happening can't hurt.

http://www.gata.org/ and http://www.usagold.com/ covers market commodities and
http://www.allamericangold.com/ ties stocks in with daily political life.

You'll have to dig and frequent the sites often but when has war ever been presented accurately and fairly in history?

Regardless of political stance the amount of censorship and obscurity being touted from american media is stunningly bad. There is a serious effort to keep information out of public hands. Have fun diggin'

Trouble

Yeah, I know what France's unemployment rate. Interesting that you could find frances rate on the internet, but couldnt find it on Italy or Spain

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/Fo...abor/flseur.txt

It says that Spain's unemployment as of June 2003 is 11.4% and it's not available for Italy (but in 2003, the only stat for Italy says 8.9% ( ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/Fo...abor/flsjec.txt )

Most of the EU has a higher unemployment rate than we do, its been that way forever. But I dont think that it means that the euro is going to collapse

The dollar drops like a stone whenever a bad economic report, especially bad jobs data, comes out, so the Euro is sure to do the same.

I really don't see the reason for the argument between the € and the $. It just makes no sense at all! So what's this idea of a euro/dollar war???

Actually, in a longer term, there could be consequences. First of all, the Euro is probably somewhat more stabile, as a currency, since it's dependent on several countrys, whereas the dollar is only depending on changes in one (although that one is huge), so that any changes in one country, doesn't nescecarily meen as much for the value of the euro as the same changes would in the US.

Another point is, that Pres. Bush have lost somewhat prestigue, after begging the UN for help in stabilizing Iraq. A lot of arabic countries are most likely even less satisfied with the US now, than before. So if they, in cooperation with the EU decide to start measuring the oil value in Euro, rather than in dollars, it could very well be the start for the rest of the world as well.

_________________

Bruce

Definitely not.
America did , however have an advantage after WW2 with the massive lend-lease payements made to her from the UK and its allies. These payments kept the British economy under restraint for over 50yrs.
There are still 25yrs remaining on the lease of British bases.

I am sure the vision Europeans have of overweight, lazy Americans is just as false as your aging population with insufficient growth.
The demographics are very much in favour of the Europeans.
They have everything on their doorstep.
Sufficient oil, sufficient food, sufficient technology....etc, etc and last but not least when Russia joins the ECU, a considerable nuclear force under arms.

I can, however, agree with you on one point. Their pension funds are in as much of a mess as yours.

Regards.....Alan

I doubt Russia will wish to join the EU.

However I do agree that there is a currency war taking place between the EU and the USA, but I think its rather only a single aspect of a far greater struggle between the two.

America has enjoyed its position of power for a long time, and does not wish to relinquish it. Having won the cold war, it seems elements of the American power elite have consolidated their efforst to reap the 'benefits' of their dominance.

Europe in the mean time has had to suffer for the past crimes of Germany (and Italy) and I think a feeling of resentment has been smouldering for years beneath many of the EU's leadership.
I find there is a definite feeling that we in Europe should be the worlds foremost power. That we have the experience, the culture, yadda yadda yadda

So, (IMHO) we have these two large players, one still strong, but the other gaining strength and both trying to be polite to each other, whilst all the while battling each other on almost every issue under the sun; The UN, Iraq, GM foods, Steel trade, trade talks, the third world, the environment, AIDS and the list goes on...

And I think the this is a direct result of voter laziness. In America for example, voter turn out in the last election was the lowest since the second world war, and in Europe we are bombarded with referenda trying to assimilate every nation into the EU, with scant regard for the results. (vote NO and you'll get another chance three years later)

This mess will continue for as long as people let it. For as long as middle America and Middle Europe continues to allow corrupt politicians to come to power, and lets not beat around the Bush, they are all corrupt, (Just look at Prodi) then nothing is going to change.
This world needs a reform in its way of thinking. We need to agree on such issue's as over population, the environment and how to avoid war.

The only way we can do that is by turning away from our entertainment for a day or so, and give some serious consideration to what sort of world we wish to pass on to our children... and their children.

Moif.

Of course it has broader connotations.
Nothing is ever black and white but our comments re: Russia and the EU: merits further thought.

regards..Alan

I've read that next year, the EU will expand to include the Baltic states, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Malta, and Cyprus. If this is true, I believe absorbing those economies will cripple the Euro. It would be astounding if it were any other way.

moif


And if this is true?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031008/energy_russia_euro_3.html

Mrs.Pigpen


And just why would this...will... cripple the Euro?
And just why are you astounded?
Nations have certain criterias to meet before being absorbed into the EU.
I know them, you find out.

Try first searching the 'coalition of the willing' and check how many are unacceptable to the EU.

If you think this bad news the following is worse.
The 'Dinar' and Gold.
http://www.dawn,com/2003/04/21/ebr5.htm

US Gold reserves @April 18 2003=147.3 million ozs.
US Foreign Debt @October 9 2003=US$6,811,733,039,215.......increasing.
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
Current value of Gold @09/10/2003= US$375.7 oz

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure it out.

History is littered with the carcasses of powerful nations who thought themselves right, and invincible, Mrs. Pigpen.
My hope is Americans look close and dont let it happen.

Regards..Alan

/sigh

Isn't capital a terrible thing! I couldn't really care less about which currency is seen as standard, although I intend to vote for the UK to join the euro whenever the referendum comes. This has more to do with my terrible arithmetic making trips to the continent confusing at the exchange office than the belief that the Euro could be the strongest currency in my lifetime.

Can't we all just be friends?

Robin,

Dont I just wish mate.

See...........
I don't give ten shades of technicoloured Roo poo wether you are richer or bigger than me.
Nor do I care if you think yourself better than me.
However..............
I DO care twenty shades of Roo poo what the bigger and richer do to me, my kids and my family.

Regards....Alan

Your gold/dinar link didn't work, but I don't know how it's relevant since neither the US nor the EU uses the gold standard for their currencies.

Yes, our debt is bad. I'm betting Europe's debt is bad, too. The question is, as a percentage of GDP, which is worse? You are perfectly willing (throughout numerous posts on this forum) to ascertain that the US is morally bankrupt because they give less than other countries towards humanitarian aid. In fact, we give more in humanitarian aid than any country in the world. The only way you could say we fall short in the comparison is by percentage of GDP or contribution per person. You cannot maintain an honest argument and change your standard everytime it suits your purpose. Either we're the most generous country in the world deeply in debt, or we're quite ungenerous but our debt isn't so enormous compared to much of Europe.

Yes, absorbing crippled economies is bad for a currency. There are reasons for this and "it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out". Hint: Anyone can be a Turkish millionare.

Edited to add: Why you're pointing your finger at me as thinking we're "right and invincible" I have no idea. I would like to see a strong Euro, that would be good for everyone IMO.

Edited (again) to add: Oh, yes, I forgot to add that almost all of the new countries I listed are in the Coalition of the Willing.

My apologies for putting a , where a . should be.
I am afraid it is very relevant and for that reason will post it again.
http://www.dawn.com/2003/04/21/ebr5.htm

The dinar constitutes a fairly big slab of the World economic powerhouse and their wish to move away from the US dollar into a gold based trading commodity may have serious implications on the US economy.
How many offshore US companies are within the dinar zone?


I am afraid I cannot give you the current Euro GDP but I also assume it's not so good.
The pre-occupation with GDP's is a little misleading, a focus on the on-going foreign debt increase is more relevant where the US's has been increasing for the last few years and the Europeans managed to control theirs.
It is this lack of control in debt spending and the American absolute belief in themselves that has created this situation.
I can only put this down to a difference in philosophic outlook between Americans and Europeans regarding saving and borrowing.


I don't think I ever actually said that the US was morally bankrupt, but now you mention it
You certainly do give more in aid as a nation, but much less as individuals, I thought I made that clear as well, and posted comparisons.
I think Denmark came into it somewhere.


Mrs.P
The first sentence of this is really most unlike you and untrue.
Because my honest arguments are not your honest arguments makes mine wrong?
I have never seen yours as wrong...just patriotic American.
Please explain if I have changed my standards, and when.


No not at all.
The EU has certain criteria laid down before membership ( I may have already mentioned this) and this has to be met before joining. The American ally, Turkey, has a problem with the EU concerning human rights and I would suggest you either look in 'Amnesty International' or 'Outstanding UN resolutions' to discover why.
Another of these criteria is to have a foreign debt below a certain level.

Take care...........
Regards...Alan

The unemployment in europe is worse than the United States. Sweden and Italy have double digit i believe as well as France and Germany is close. Absorbing more developing bloc states will drive the Euro into a tailspin dive

Really? Check out this link

A little info from the above link:

European and Japanese populations combined are twice that of the United States, but in 50 years the U.S. population is expected to be larger and younger.

"The total population of the European Union plus Japan is expected to shrink by more than 10 percent," the paper said. "More important from a security perspective, the working age and youth populations are expected to decline by 27 percent and 34 percent, respectively."

Commensurate with those changes will be a need to provide pensions and health care to a dramatically larger elderly population.

In Germany alone, social security costs absorbed 50 percent of the national budget in 1996, and pension costs have increased 25 percent between 1992 and 1997, the paper said. (end of quote)

May I ask what is false about my contention on the demographics of Europe? In the long run Europe will not be a major power. That does not mean they cannot have a thriving economy, superpower status is overrated.

Alan Wood



If its true, it still does not mean that Russia intends to join the EU.

But I can imagine that this is exactly the sort of idea that Donald Rumsfeld and his neo con friends seek to 'pre-empt'.


Mrs Pigpen



It will certainly place a heavy burden on the EU economy, but if you look at the example of Germany, you will find that although the Germans are paying a stiff penalty for the incorporation of Eastern Germany into the Federal state, with an ailing market and severe unemployment figures. The nation itself is not failing in any spectacular way and once they weather the next few years, Germany will doubtless rise up, as strong and powerful as ever, to become the central economy of the EU.

Most of the incoming nations are poor, but they are intact with regards to state infrastructure and government spending (what little they have) and they have more or less been told not to expext any hand outs from Brussels. France in particular was adamant that they should not have to pay for the new comers.

The new comers will have to pay their own way, and will face a long hard slog, but there is nothing to indicate that they cannot do this. I fully expect that within the space of one generation they will be fully integrated into the EU as equal partners.


GoAmerica

Sweden's unemployment figures are at 5.4%, but at the same time, their industrial output capacity is expanding.

http://se.news.yahoo.com/030821/76/19iv4.html

Must be thinking of someone else

Thanks for the correction

France's is 9.6%

I'd hate to be a pill but could we please not refer to Americans as yankees, that's really a northeast coast thing.

Well i tend to disagree on alot of things that have been said, one of them being the Euro will fall, with European exports bigger then the US exports can ever be, i dont see a fall in the euro with the 10 new member but i see a rise in the euro so it would be like 1euro = $1.50, or something close to that. Now once all these countrys are with the euro, and i hope the UK joins to as well, it will make Europe the biggest exporter, and other countrys outside the eurozone will want to buy products from europe because they are cheeper than the US. Now i have also heard talk about russia joining the EU, but not anytime in the next 5yrs, but again such a move would shift the balance of power even more. And as i have said a few other times, Iran is going to sell oil in euros and so is veniswayla, sorry i cant spell it, anywho europe doesnt have a massive trade deficit of more than $200 billion unlike the US. where Europe has trade surplus with the rest of the world and is owed about $1 trillion. see my point, once things switch to the euro, it would mean a decline in the dollar much like the decline in the pound, but being a small country the UK didnt have that much trouble, but the US will. With all that money flying home and people wanting to be paid, it would be a bad day for the US when it does happen.

Nota,
I didn't say it will fall. I said it did fall. It's vaule is currently only 85 cents to the dollar. It may recover, but not for a while. I tend to think the value of the dollar will increase as well though, so we'll just have to let that play itself out.

As has been pointed out in another thread, that number is wrong JL.

The U.S. dollar is worth .8465 Euro's as of friday.

1 USD = 0.846717 EUR

1 EUR = 1.18103 USD

As you see JL, the dollar is weaker to the Euro, im not sure where you have got you numbers from? please explain your answer.

I'm sorry mate, I was referring to the dollar not the person


The link didn't work but I managed to track it down.
In reference to an ageing society and care costs I find these snippits very odd.
............with about 1 million more men under arms, Europe spends only about two-thirds as much on defence as does the UnitedStates
Could it be because the Europeans see their army as just that, a defence force, wheras the US military is becoming increasingly an aggressive force?

.......they simply will not have the resources to increase defence spending in the decade ahead.
Why should there be a need to?
The Europeans have already shown a prerogative to avoid America's ill-concieved jaunts, they now have a choice and have chosen.

Regards...Alan

ok i have seen this site and all the info on it is from the fed reserve. so i thought i would give you all an eye opener to how much america would be in debt, if everyone stoped using the dollar.

$34.47 Trillion

that as far as i know is 2times over GDP

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/nat-debt/debt-nat-a.htm

so as you see, where the world owes the EU over a trillion Euros, america in affect is bankrupt.

most chart are from the fed reserve, but some are from other sites.

Notarealme.

A great site and interesting reading.
Heres one thats been around a while.......

http://www.toptips.com/debtclock.html

I think its fairly obvious that the US is in a very sorry condition.
It seems many countries are trying to dissociate themselves from the dollar by buying gold or Euro's.


Regards..........Alan

My God! You two are right! We need to take the advice of those website owners and cut government spending drastically now. We need to return to a libertarian government.

It is if we don't immediately cut government spending drastically. Eliminate SS and limit defense to protecting our borders and we will put a big dent in the deficit that so endangers the dollar.

Nearly right Hugo

Regards........Alan

To help get back on track, i don't think the dollar is about to be dethroned as a commodity exchange unit because there are still many who still use dollars and still want to use dollars. Also, if the U.S. economy collapses, so does the entire world....the disadvantage of globalization

The world economy didn't grind to a shuddering halt back in 1933 when America abandoned the gold standard and the world followed it. Nor did it collapse during the "Wall Street Crash", although the tremor was felt.
As long as the majority of the solvent major trading blocks prefer a particular currency as a standard there will be no world turmoil.

Both the US dollar and the Euro are "fiat" currencies with the Euro being preferred because of the critical situation of the US economy and the consequent instability of the US dollar.
The following links go partway towards explaining just why the the world economy will not collapse.
This site gives a fairly good description of the reason for paper currency.
http://www.halexandria.org/dward299.htm

And this helps explain the "fiat" currencies, dollar, Euro and the gold situation.
http://www.halexandria.org/dward305.htm

The whole site is worth browsing.
Regards.....Alan

The dollar has only fallen 10%, after gaining 35% between 1995 and Feb. 2002. I don't really think the dollar will be thrown out of the ring because the Euro, once people decide it has gone too high in value, will not want to take risks and go back to the cheap to buy Dollar.

Besides, a strong Euro doesn't mean a strong economy. You should note that since the dollar started to decline, the US economy has recovered. More companies are reporting profits and jobs are improving. Jobs are a determined factor in the Dollar value as well.