I love a good debate as much as anyone else. But lets try to keep it on an even playing field.

Yes I replied to your post when I saw the latest figures. But if my memory serves me correctly you also posted a reply(dec. 1) to this debate after those figures had been made public. Now please tell me the difference between my post (which was chuckled about) and your post

We both replied to this debate when we saw facts benefical to our cause. I only stated mine as a matter of fact with no snide remarks about the other AD debater. On the other hand it would be helpful in a debate to get ample respect from my fellow Ad debater. RESPECT is a two lane road.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?...%7D&siteid=mktw



It seems the improving economy was a little short here,too.

Because I find it humorous. It is quite obvious there are people who just can't wait for negative news so as to effect this administration negatively.

Think of this economy like a football game and you are driving down field. We are making big gains, but we are suffering a few penalties along the way.

This economy IS recovering overall. And if you don't admit that you are only kidding yourself, or you are just saying it to keep the negative spin going to harm the administration.

I am still looking for an answer to why my post is humorous and yours isn't.

As for reporting negatively: I let the facts speak for themselves.

I don't feel a great need to get very excited until I really see GREAT NEWS.

After all the recession has officially been over for 2 years,but in the meanwhile we lost 2.3 million jobs. That is great great news

The adminstration has been promising us a great economy for the past 2 years. Only it is not here yet. It appears to me that individuals such as you are the gullible ones.

I may be wrong. What if I give the adminstration another 2 years? YEAH that is what I will do.

I didn't figure it was a Jobless Recovery.
I said it was a play on words!!

What facts that speak for themselves?

With in the last 8 months there has been FAR more positive news and figures released on the economy than negative.

I understand you are joyous over your 11,000 jobless claim increase this week.

So you are honestly saying that the economy is not better than it was 2 years ago?

You are very trusting of your government & media.
Maybe what is important is what is NOT released.
What you may actually have to dig to find.

No-one has commented on the lack of energy.

WHY

I am sure the 2.3 million people that have lost their jobs since 2 years ago can give you a good answer. But beware it made not be the answer you will enjoy.

I don't understand this: As long as there is some sort of job growth, there is no big deal. So why are people making it a big deal? Just because, in one month, the number doesn't go up a 6 digit number doesn't mean there is something wrong.

job growth after a nasty recession TAKES TIME. Don't expect excellent results in one month.

I didn't expect results in one month. If you read my post I quoted a period of 2 years. How many years do you think we should give him? 2 or 4 or 6?

Hmmmmm Doesn't it take time for economic and fiscal policy to take effect?

I don't want to ask those people you keep speaking for popeye, I am asking you. Based on the recent economic trends in the past few months are we in an economic recovery or not?

Anyone involved in Economics will definitely tell you no decisions can be may on the economy with 2 or 3 months statistics. Just take the statistics the last few days.

Non farm payroll jobs added in November was 57,000
It has been agreed by economists that it takes 150,000 just to take care of individuals entering the job market. 57,000 is sliding back,not even keeping pace with the economy.

First time jobless claims was 365,000 for the latest week.
Economists agree that 350,000 is the figure needed to keep unemployment from going up. So 365,000 is only enough to keep unemployment from going up.

In both cases the facts point out that economy is definitely not improving.

Even taking into consideration the past 3 months. The areas talked about are still at or below breakeven points.

Give me 6 months or more of under 350,000 jobless claims
and also 6 months of 150,000 non farm payroll jobs added monthly
and I will agree with you.

Until then, There is no reason whatsoever to agree with you.

Unless you want everyone to throw out Economics 101 out the window. Which it appears that the adminstration has attempted to tell the people.

Here's your answer that popeye posted 2 weeks ago.

And let's define terms for a moment: does "economic recovery" mean growth in GDP or does "economic recovery" mean that those 2+ million jobs that were lost have been gained back? You might vote the former, but if you're out of work, the latter looks more correct. You see the difference in viewpoint?

Wow you must be a new economist. Because you changed the number from 400,000 to 350,000. Oh wait that is because it is just right for you to tout it negatively.

The actual number is 400,000 Jobs.

To quote:



Taken from www.money.com

Just do this take all the economic indicators from 6 months ago and look at them now. See any positive gains? Yes.

I know anecdotal doesn't mean much in debate. But on a personal level the economy is fantastic for me. Since Bush has been in office my income has gone up 4 times what it was. I don't attribute it all to him, because I had to work hard to get there(infact I was laid off during his term ). At least I pay less taxes because of his policies.

I guess since I worked hard and turned it around for myself I don't pity anyone who is able.

If you will look closely again I did not use the term 350,000 for IMPROVING ECONOMY, I used it for the amount needed to keep even with people coming into the job market.

If you don't understand the basic principles of Economics 101, there is no use discussing this matter any farther. I have spent more time than usual trying to get you to understand,which is hopeless.

I keep giving you the answers and you still ask the same thing, even after AMF helped.

I consider our debate between us closed.

Enlighten me on how you did that. I truly am curious because my income since Bush came into office fell dramatically to poverty level. It's a good thing I live with a kind hearted woman.

And BTW, I'm not looking for sympathy. The story might become part of my next book.

It's about working your tush off for peanuts and getting stiffed along the way, among other things.

Yeah, and since Bush came into office, my income has gone up a bazillion times what it was. I had a small business that got started in Jan 2001 that never paid me a dime for two years and I finally walked away and went back to consulting this year, which at least pays the bills. Going from 0 to something more is an infinite increase. On the other hand, in the last two Clinton years, another business of mine was sold for an absurd amount of money.

Clinton had little to do with why my first business sold so much, nor did Bush have much to do with the last two years. Like he runs the economy or my business.

Can't you just see that... hand on the wheel, ocean breeze in his face, steering the economy through the scary shoals and storms.... almost looks like an RNC commercial.

You can consider the debate closed, I just consider your eyes are closed.




First thing was, I did not listen to the doom and gloom around me, I did not let it become a part of me. I moved thru a few jobs looking for a place that I could find opportunity. I would never work for a place where I had no hopes of moving up.

If you have any more in-depth question AM do not hesitate to PM me.

As for popeye and amf. I see both of you as part of the problem and not the solution. Your constant negative outlook only harms a situation. What if you had a child struggling in school and he started doing better, but he would also slip up sometimes and bring home a bad test score. Would you berate him on the bad test, focusing on the negative, or would you encourage him through positive reinforcement?

At this point I don't expect an honest answer, because it has become clear it is all about politics.

That may be true but it could also mean that there is a possibility that retailers and other companies are waiting for the first couple weeks of the x-mas shopping sales to come out before doing any irrational added expenses. They are just being cautious. If, like predicted, this year's holiday shopping sales show better than last year, then retailers and other companies will pull out their wallets to pay for some new employees.

I take all the official statistics with a grain of salt.

For example, unemployed is defined by the BLS as:
"Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work."

This leaves out a lot of people in my opinion. Anyways, statistics are statistics.

One thing I wonder about is how people are personally experiencing a recovery. Like I said in my first post, I don't see it around me. Those who think we are in an economic recovery, how are you experiencing it? Is your company growing and giving raises? Are your friends more employed now? Is your standard of living improving?

Of course, you'd NEVER consider that your inability... no, wait, that'd just be perpetuating the same type of stupid statement that you just launched at us.

Try not to take it so personally, though. It's not about you.

I agree with you Otseng. Its whats NOT reported that matters, theres an election coming.

Sleeper, Oh? So you think the unemployment rate was 1/10th of 1 percent better last month by those figures released on Friday? Hogwash! When you look at the alternative measures of unemployment - the U-6 table which captures under employment, like MBA's flipping burgers - you see unemployment actually went up 2/10th's from 9.5 to 9.7%. See: HERE. Election Year = Bigger Lies.

PERSONAL ATTACK REMOVED

And still no comment on energy depletion as the trigger.

The unemployment rate did go down one-tenth of a per cent. I see no lie there.The only lie is yours when you state that unemployment went up two-tenths of a per cent and use a statistic that measures unemployment and under employment.

Statistics aside, peoples' perceptions of the economy are influenced the most by what happens to them personally.

Ask the IBM employees who will be losing their jobs to people living in India. We're not talking about sharecropper jobs. We're talking about jobs that require technical degrees.

Lou Dobbs on CNN was compiling a list of the US companies outsourcing their jobs. I plan on getting a copy of it.

The corporate bottom lines surely increase when there are foreigners willing to work for wages comparable to those of their countrymen. Increased automation in industries can produce more products while relieving experienced workers of their livelihood. These bottom lines are among the indicators used to figure the economic recovery.

Jobless claims only show people who are still drawing unemployment. After the unemployment insurance stops, these people are no longer part of that statistic. They drop off the radar. It doesn't necessarily mean that they found work, so the statistic is skewed.

It was Mark Twain who said, "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." It's not hard to figure out what he meant. Until average (people who don't own their own business but work for someone else) citizens who were accustomed to working 40 hours a week can find work and not strain to keep the bills paid, the recovery will be, in their perception, just talk.

People will complain if they keep getting a non-english speaking person or someone they can't understand when they call technical support and if the complaints get too high, they will just do what Dell did and bring em back to the States.

These companies are getting stupider and stupider.

Why fire a person who knows what he or she is doing and can actually sound like a human being then go along and send that same job to India where the person who gets this job doesn't even understand your language or can't even talk without making the person calling for help think that person has been sniffing some illegal substance because his grammer sounds atrocious??



Here: A record not to be proud of

Overt racism aside, you would be surprised how often it is hard to tell where the person on the other side is from. For starters, Nova Scotia (a province of Canada) is the home of many American call-centres. At the same time many of those jobs filled by people with what I guess you would call funny-accents are actually local; as with menial labour immigrants are more likely to take tedious low-skill jobs like that (and believe me, it is tedious and low skill) than your average white-American. So next time you think you know where the person you are talking to is sitting when you have trouble understanding what they say, stop and think, you may be horribly wrong.

And perhaps a little bit of reminder for you GoAmerica... you cannot assume that humanity=American. Just because somebody speaks differently doesn't make them any more or less qualified, or more or less of a person. To someone from India you probably sound just as unintelligible.

Why? So that they can price their computers as cheaply as possible, which is the main criteria people use to make their purchase decisions. Foreign labor is simply much cheaper; this is as prevalent in the technical fields as anywhere else. A couple of years ago our company (Compaq) was bidding on a services contract where an Indian firm wanted $15/hour. Our regular rate was around $240 ($15 didn't even begin to cover our overhead). Now, you tell me, if you were faced with such a situation, which company would you choose? Also, keep in mind that by outsourcing these jobs to foreign labor, IBM and others are able to stay competetive--which actually creates or preserves jobs. No, if you want to keep your job from being outsourced, you have to demonstrate an ability to generate more for your company than they will save by going overseas. If you can't do that, you SHOULD be outsourced.

Hobbes, I think you've nailed it on the head. Quality doesn't matter as long as revenue generates, eh? Eventually though, quality does matter as US auto manufacturers found out.

Service is a trickier one than manufacturing for determining quality. I think GA has a point about customer feedback, but what if the service happens to be an internal thing like systems support? You'd think a corporation would want to keep that away from outsourcers due to the risks of losing critical systems, yet outsourcing goes on. Some of it even goes overseas.

This can become a national security issue, especially if system support of infrastructure such as Internet backbones heads overseas. Also financial systems.
The hardware support has to stay here but not the OS and applications support.

I guess we'll have to experience some major crises before the trend reverses. I'm not the only one familiar with the systems support side to be worrying about this either. The trade press is full of dire warnings that nobody is heeding.

I should not have said that. Normally, such words would not come from me but i guess when seeing someone's job taken away because it is expensive and given to another individual from somewhere else because it's cheaper, i get upset. I think it is stupid and unethical to do such a thing.

Maybe i should re-phrase it so it doesn't make me sound like some sort of bigot:

Why fire a person here who knows what he or she is doing and gets an excellent wage and send that same job to India or China where they can find someone with less experience and then pay that person or persons there a lot cheaper but not give the same satisfactory service as consumers would get from the experienced people back here??


AuthorMusician:


Or companies will have to experience major consumer losses before they figure it out and reverse their ways. Dell was smart. They fixed the problem before it dealt a deafening blow to them.

At what point did I say anything about neglecting quality? However, since you brought it up, and to continue the IBM analogy: Exactly how much extra will you pay for a PC to be able to get tech support that is more fluent in our language? $60? $40? $Nothing? The real point here is that companies that make these decisions are doing so for reasons the marketplace puts in front of them--nothing else. So, if you don't like it, don't direct your ire at the corporations. Instead, speak out to all the consumers--they're the ones causing the problem. How foolish of them to continue to base purchase decisions on price

To continue with the quality reference--this is exactly how domestic workers can save their jobs. Obviously, it can't be on price--foreign workers are clearly willing to work for far less than American. It could be on productivity--but it is likely that that advantage will also dwindle. That only leaves quality. This is particulary true in the service sector. The way to keep your job (or at least your wages) is to be far enough ahead of foreign competition in your skills (ability to do quality work) to justify the difference in wages. The point still being, though, that if you can't justify that wage difference, you should expect to be outsourced. For, why should people continue to pay a premium for your service when, in effect, they don't receive any extra benefit for it?

Sounds good Hobbes.

Just beware that Dell responded to *corporate* customers, not consumers.

And just beware that consumers don't understand how dependent they are on our IT infrastructures. Your basic utilities can go belly up creating a national crisis.

Kinda like the electrical grid showed us not so long ago.

Consumers, on the other hand, will respond to quality when it becomes important to them. PCs are not the only consumer goods that depend on IT.

Think Toyota and Honda.

How much extra are consumers willing to pay for dependable Internet service?

Or cellular?

Or financial?

Help desk service: Nobody I've talked with has liked to deal with heavily accented help desk providers. That's a small sampling and meaningless for its size.

But you try it and see if you're satisfied. You know, since we're down to the personal level here.

Now imagine your company's critical mission systems being programmed by folks from India. Gives yah a warm fuzzy, no?

I understand your argument, but the thing is that corporations are *only* looking at the bottom line and sacrificing quality. This can't continue on without crisis.

This also isn't anything new. It's a characteristic of corporate think (shoot self in foot syndrome).

But I do agree that the individual has to perform in order to make a wage or salary. That's cool. Now if only rent was $2 a month and the food bill $0.50, maybe Americans could compete.

I may be going out on a limb here. I am not an economist. I am simply an American who is trying to make ends meet.

I would like to believe that the economy is growing and that we are coming out of a recession. However, I fear that we are being duped into believing that our capitalist system will provide for all Americans.

Let me put it another way. Without inflation, the amount of money in the world (let alone the United States) is finite. Therefore, anyone who has money need not worry about making money. The task of making money is put onto the shoulders of people who don't have any. Those of us without money borrow from the rich and are charged interest on the money that we borrow. We are forced to create money that doesn't exist. Common sense dictates that eventually there are going to be people at the end of it all who are left with enormous debt and no real assets. It almost begins to feel like a game of musical chairs.

In response to the good news regarding our GDP:

Is it possible that this is merely a result in the enormous deficit spending by Congress and our President that is being funneled into corporations from government contracts as a result of two wars in less than two years? Congress authorized over $80 billion...twice - for the war in Iraq alone. Assuming American companies are only receiving a modest percentage of the money being spent by our government, we are obviously going to see incredible gains from those companies that profit during war. The only problem is this deficit spending is like getting approved for a credit card. Just because you have a credit limit of $50,000 extended to you, doesn't mean you made $50,000 that year.

Again, I'm not an economist. These are just questions that I have asked myself. I would love to hear from anyone about how an economic system such as this survives.

Yes, they will--but they'll respond to price first. Which is the point we're at with the outsourced tech support. This lets the companies (Dell?) sell their product at an attractive price, which drives revenue. Of course, if it doesn't meet expectations once its sold, this will certainly start to have a negative impact on sales. But it's the same as it is with many environmental issues--everyone says they want something done, no one is willing to sacrifice or pay for it. Quality tech support is one of those things. Do I like it? Heck no--I've had the foreign run-around just recently, as a matter of fact. Which would have been bad enough, but our customer also called in to the same number, and received more of a run-around than we did. However, it isn't Dell that put them in this situation--they did it to themselves. You keep demanding a cheaper product, and often that's exactly what you'll get--a cheaper product. If that's a problem, base your purchase decision on something else. But don't blame the companies for giving exactly what the consumers keep indicating they want.

As for the Indian programmers--what makes you think they aren't as skilled, or even more so, than many of their American counterparts? Of that, if they're not, that they soon won't be? Don't think I like this trend--I'm one of the ones that pays the price (I work in the IT industry as a consultant). However, that doesn't mean I can't understand what's driving it...

Hobbes,

Right. Many consumers want low cost and don't care about quality. That's why WalMart does so well.

That's because these consumers are making low incomes. Their good paying jobs, if ever they had any, have gone overseas.

It's a vicious circle.

Only the corporate customers have any clout these days.

Hope you enjoy working with heavily accented folks. I was doing that as an IT consultant too and insisted on email communications. We're not talking PCs and LANs here either -- major telecom systems (IBM, Sun, HP).

Whatever happened to needing more than just tech skills to make it in IT? Remember communication, people and business skills? Huh. Guess that all goes down the tubes for the bottom line.

Just thought I would post some more signs of economic recovery.

Jobless claims reach 3 year low.

Manufacturing growth.

I don't think the economy is recovering anymore. I think it has recovered and growing at this point.

Agreed!!

The US economy is once agan showing it's strength with the rising indicators that were reported today. BUT...Just because claims go down, it doesn't mean a thing. Thsoe claims probably fell because it was a holiday week. It will probably rise next week.

Also, there is still the little matter with the unemployment numbers, which will be reported next week. Will jobs be added or not?

As someone still *** NOTICE: THIS WORD IS AGAINST THE RULES. FAILURE TO REMOVE IT WILL RESULT IN A STRIKE. *** at the Administration's fiscal irresponsibility, I'll take a swing at this question:

Yes, jobs were added in December.

Unfortunately, these jobs will have been a spike to handle the Xmas season and many of those jobs will start to disappear in Feb. as demand slacks off again. Unless Bush can engineer to give everyone more of a federal debt-driven chunk of cash, like last July, there won't be another wild surge like last Q3's numbers.

Hope I'm wrong.

I would be a little skeptical about the numbers being published including the Stock Market, the people doing the publishing want Bush re-elected, and all of this can easily be manipulated to show favorable signs, Remember Arthur Andersons accounting, and Stock price inflation scandals I am not saying for certain we are being mislead ,only don't take it to the bank as yet.

I am cautious and curious as to economic growth so highly acclaimed that is not producing jobs, to increase production to result in growth you must have more workers and I see no improvement in employment numbers, less layoff does not equal more workers. Are we to assume the current workforce was setting around doing nothing, but now are doing 20% more work at production.

It all seems a little fishy to me, and I agree we should all wait a month to see what happens, the Retail sector will have massive layoffs starting next week and those numbers will appear in February.

Already reported was Toys 'R' Us, closing stores nationwide, and laying off 3800 people. The Auto Industry was offering discounts up to 4500 per vehicle to spur sales, thats quite a big discount. Interest rates are also likely to climb and will cut into the only sector growing the past few years, Housing.

The Auto Industry has competition to deal with. China, besides buying more than 30 Boeing 737's worth over $1.2 billion, signed a deal with Detroit's Big Three that would allow the Big Three to export thousands of cars to China, which will help the profits of Ford & GM and help our trade deficet with China



Not surprising. That always happens. But i think that some Retailers will keep some on because of the "better than last year" shopping season, and December was not even the highest point. People still ahve gift cards and money they got to spend



The death of the housing boom was bound to come sooner or later. It was inevitable.



Always remeber: Things get worse before they get better

Considering your answers to all of the quoted people here, GA, how can you possibly reconcile that with your previous comments, agreeing with Sleeper that the economy is not just recovering, but already recovered and booming?

Durable goods sales (washers, refrigerators, computers) are down.

As noted above, housing starts have already fallen, and interest rates are likely headed back up, which will cause a further drop.

It's no longer enough to offer car financing at 0% interest, now auto makers need big discounts as well, to keep sales from dropping.

Yes, some retailers may retain some employees hired in November and early December, but most will be laid off again.

As noted elsewhere, a drop in the rate of those applying for unemployment for the first time does not equal a rise in employment, or even a lowering of those already unemployed. And don't forget, as long as many of these have been on unemployment, they are now falling off the rolls, and no longer being considered by the government as "unemployed", simply because their benefits have ended.

So which is it GA, are we recovered and booming, or is it (as you stated above) to get worse before it gets better? From where I'm sitting, despite November's numbers, we are far from booming.

One month, or even one quarter of good numbers don't mean much. 60,000 or 100,000 jobs a month is nowhere near where job creation has to be to even account for everyone entering the job market for the first time. Let alone those who have been laid off or terminated in the last three years. When I see Job growth of 300,000 to 350,000 per month, then I'll believe we are recovering. When I see auto sales increase without artificially low loans, and durable goods retail sales increase, then I'll believe we are booming again.

Just some numbers concerning unemployment:

It was last reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that the unemployment rate is 5.9%. This is out of a total workforce of 147,277,000 people. This number counts both people that are employed and those actively looking for work. A little math work out to be (lessee...carry the one) = 5.9% of 147,277,000 means that 8,674,000 Americans who could be working are out of work – 8.67 million.

In September 1994, it was also 5.9%. Then the workforce was 131,421,000..... Over 15 million workers have appeared. The United States is adding well over a million workers every year. This makes the 5.9% of today a lot worse than the 5.9% of 1994.

Just to keep the rate steady, the same number of jobs - over a million - have to be created each year to match the growth in bodies.

I won't deny that there is a recovery going on.....but there needs to be a whole lot more work done concerning that unemployment rate....

CNN Money Article



So Jobs cuts are slowing. That can only mean that comapnies are gaining better profits which would prevent layoffs. So the Economy must be improving. And this article agrees:

Another CNN Money Article

I cannot give but my humble opinion on this subject.
For the first time in avery long time I have begun to get interveiws again.
Related to my education and training instead of temp warehouse work.
Have I gotten a job out of it yet?
no
However it has been SO LONG since I have even seen my resume even reveiwed that I am confident the economy is indeed on the upswing as my specialties are generally budget luxuries.

(Although any intelligent company recognizes the value of quality training methods to allow the continued education of their employees allowing unmeasurable ROI and more loyal and dedicated employees)

Information and Educational design. High quality fully immersive and interactive education and/or training systems along with the implementation of custom mission specific simulators. Mostly IT but some engineering/electronic projects
It is something companies can do without and I aint cheap. So I would use my example to say the economy is doing better.

Well, i knew this was gonna happen: Jobless Claims Rise

2 weeks ago, there was a reported dip. That was because there was a holiday and snowstorms.

But the good news is that retailers are all smiles (except for Circuit City, which reported a 2% drop in December sales): Article

Yes, but the real rise is going to not really start for another month after all the returns and gift cards have been handled. THEN... look for jobless claims to spike.

Depends on how much money the stores took in. If they get a decent profit, then they can hire more workers.

I read somewhere once, but can't find the reference now, that 70% of a store's revenue comes during the Xmas season. I'm assuming it's not a DIY-type store, but if that number still holds (and I have no doubt that it does), then why would they NEED those workers past January?

Come on, GA, you're not so disingenuous as to believe that if you post a link some of us won't read through the whole story and call you on your inconsistancies, are you?

You say that retailers are all smiles, except for Circuit City, and lead us to believe that they were the only ones that didn't post a gain. But that's not the case. Let's look at all the losers listed in your link, shall we?

Sears, down 0.8%
Kohl's, down 1.2%
Gadzook's, down 25.2%
Abercrombie & Fitch, down 13.0%
Wet Seal, down 7.3%
Christopher & Banks, down 7.0%
Wilson Leather, down 6.8%
Pier 1 Imports, down 4.9%
Toys R US, down 4.9%
American Eagle Outfitters, down 5.7%

I'm sure there are plenty of others as well, that we haven't had reported yet.

I also noted that, with the exception of Wal-Mart and Costco, it was mostly upscale stores such as Ann Taylor, Nordstrom's and Sharper Image who were up. The story even had an explanation for that:


Oh well, at least some stores are doing better. Let's hope the new year is as rosy as some of the economists predict, but i wouldn't hold my breath just yet.

Just to add some more info, my mom who works for a retail store and thru all this has had a 40 if not more work week is now down to 32 hours a week as of last week. Plus I remember when this thread was started people that thought that we were on an upswing in the economy were pounding their chests trying to disregard all the people that did not believe in the economic recovery. Then all of a sudden holiday time comes and some people get jobs and we were all saying that is was for the holiday times and would decline once again, hmm guess we were right about the holiday jobs.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/09/news/econo...dex.htm?cnn=yes