From where I'm sitting, I don't see any economic recovery happening. Last week, my dad got layed off. At my job, there is a company-wide hold on pay raises for this year. And friends that I know are still having a hard time finding a job.

The only thing that is not recovering is the job market. That is a major concern. But i have one problem: If companies are posting profits, why are they firing people? Because there are greedy CEO's.

Anyways, other than the Job Market, i think the United States economy has recovered very nicely from the lumps it took after the 9/11 attacks.

I think any economic recovery that may be posted in the months of August and September are a little misleading, as it was during that period of time those of us with children recieved our "rebate" checks....I'm sure a lot of americans used their to get caught up on overdue bills, as I did.

I understand there are more jobs opening up, but it seems the rate at which people are getting laid off haven't slowed down a bit in the last two years....I think the number of unemployed since 9/11 is upwards of 4 million now.....getting these people back to work are going to be the biggest indicator for me.

Preach it brother. My boyfriend has been out of work since being laid off, with no employment opportunities in sight. Several friends of mine have also been laid off.
Any recovery that may be occurring has yet to be seen by the working man.

What are you basing that on? The lack of job growth, poor retail numbers, or the three-headed monster of a growing trade deficit/rapidly growing budget deficit/currency concerns?

The financial rags are doubting recovery, too. Seems that trading on margin in tech stocks has spiked and there's a trend of posting profit gains while revenue remains flat.

Outsourcing jobs overseas and layoffs have to do with that, but the suspicion is that more "creative accounting" is going on.

The fake profit stuff is what started the slide in the first place, and over speculation in tech stocks made it worse.

Meanwhile, crooked corporate officers are being discovered even still, even after Bush got tough and Congress passed legislation (of little consequence).

Sources: Barons, Business Week, Entrepreneur op eds.

Unabashed non-commercial plug: Concerned? Visit TORAW Website

The increased GDP, the retail numbers that have been fines and a few other things i will probably think of later

Increased GDP was mostly a result of military spending. Take out military spending, and GDP would be practically flat.

I think the main key indicator of a healthy economy is actual employment (not the unemployment figures the fed puts out which are bogus). Since there's no real way to measure the actual unemployment figure for the entire country, another way is to just look around where you are. And again, it's not pretty from where I sit, and I don't think it's too different across the country.

My own personal indicator of growth is in three areas: Hard core unemployable employment (those that really don't look that hard for a job and still find one, was evident in the tech boom)- overall national housing market (NOT regional)- labor shortage indicators (NOT job specific, like the current nursing shortage). I follow these due to my own business (real estate investment) and they are what caused me to pull all my stock portfolio investment about a year before the tech crash (okay, so my financial genius uncle also warned me, but hey, I listened LOL).

Boy, you sure are one of the few lucky ones...

So, do you think now is a good time to get back into the (stock) market?

The county I live in was at 10.7% unemployment a couple of months ago. Now it is at 11.3%. It's important to keep in mind that these figures do not include the unemployed who are no longer receiving benefits and who have given up.

Guess you can figure out how I voted in this poll.

You know, if you knew me personally, with my very conservative thoughts on how to run a business, you would think I am a republican accountant LOL- but the answer is heck no, it is no time to get back into the stock market UNLESS you have some (legal of course) insider information on the goings on of some stock or another.

Unless you have more than 20thou in disposable income you should never invest in the stock market, real estate has a higher return, lower capital gains tax, and better return with lower taxes with inflation in nearly every way. You have to have a very steady "performing" income portfolio with things like life insurance interest, real estate income, bonds and some kind of gauranteed return money market or savings hybird with at least 20thou a year to be a real stock market player if you want to do tax loss in case of downturn.

Since IMO the average investor knows this stuff if he/she is successful, that is why it is a bear market now, because it has become too much of a gamble with this economy, so there is not a large amount of venture capital activity going on, and this is one of the reasons we have such a jobless economy right now, the middle class, the largest increase in jobs in the Clinton era, is totally flat.

Actually, profits are the key to future job growth. A couple of months ago, I was looking one chart that compared aggregate US profit margin and new jobs and another that compared aggregate US profit margin and capital spending. It is amazing to see the correlation, although admittedly the correlation is tighter with capital spending.

When profit margins increase, companies either expand or competitors step in for them. Again, this is not just economic theory, it is what is actually happening in the economy. I don't know how to post charts otherwise I would post them from an email I got.

I know this is only my first post so you don't me for Adam, but if you doubt me, send me a note and I will email the information which came from an economist.

Based on the recent employment numbers, I think we are in at least a mild recovery. It is too soon to know if things will go like gangbusters next year or we will have more moderate growth.

Jeff

That was the case for 2nd quarter, but not for 3rd quarter GDP. Here is an excerpt from one report I found:

Federal government spending, which grew at a 1.4 percent rate, was only a minor contributor to GDP in the third quarter. Spending on national defense was flat. But in the second quarter, military spending on the Iraq war - which grew at a whopping 45.8 percent rate - helped to catapult economic growth.

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,3...1733591,00.html

I do think the tax cuts had a big short term boost however.

Jeff

250,000 people added to payrolls over the last two months...we have been recovering and now the employment figures (which are always the last to be changed) even bear that out.

Yes, indeed, we have been recovering... for the last two months.

The problem remains, though: is it sustainable? Will those same 250,000 jobs disappear after the holidays when retail settles back down? And what about the increase in personal bankruptcies to their highest level ever?

Only questions. Check back in February for answers.

I don't think we have an economic recovery yet.



Since the recession officially ended(government figures) in November of 2001, the nation has had 2 false starts.

We have lost over 1 million jobs in each of the years 2001,2002,2003. We have to have at least 150,000 new jobs each month to keep up with new people entering the job market for the first time.

I think it will take at least one good quarter to even make me consider that the possibility of economic recovery is at hand.

The tax rebates and refinancing of homes helped skewer the final figures for the third quarter. There will be no tax rebate and no more home refinancing to prop up the figures for the fourth quarter. Then we will know the true figures

It's sustainable because as the 250,000 who have gotten jobs over the last 2 months will be spending more, thus giving companies more profits, thus increasing demand, thus the need for more employees to help increase productivity for the demand. It depends on how much consumers spend this holiday season. If consumers spend more than last year, driving profits up, then maybe they can help sustain the jobs. Jobs will increase in Nov. and Dec. because of extra cashiers. Hopefully, if consumers spend a lot, then some of those jobs will hold.




Blame idiots who use too many credit cards and spend spend spend then find out they can't pay all their bills.

I don't mean to sound critical but this is the worst simplification I've yet to see on these boards. Personal finances are riddled with complexities and challenges that are not easy to foresee, and not everyone is capable of handling bumps in the road. Living from paycheque to paycheque is a reality for some people which has nothing to do with reckless spending, unless you consider rent and food wasteful expenditures.

Heh, I'm one of those idiots! Went from a salary of near $80,000 a year to unemployment comp at about $24,000. Then to zippo once that ran out. This year I'll be lucky to gross $6,000 from freelance work, but things look better for 2004. That's not due to economic recovery as much as establishing reputation.

However, I am now on my third year of unemployment. Well, call it "forced self-employment." In any case, I started bankruptcy proceedings about 18 months ago and my hearing will be in December. Ironically, I have a current $350 gig to write about bankruptcy!

Not so surprising. Principle #1 for writers is to pick subject areas that we know something about.

For all those who think people doing bankruptcy are losers, you'd better take a good look at yourself. Most people are not that far away from the street.

And please look into the facts about bankruptcy. Even the wealthy use this method of starting over. Obviously, corporations do too.

Regarding foolish moves, what is more foolish than granting a $50,000 line of unsecured credit? I have never gotten that, but know of folks who have. Let's face it, greedy lenders charged high interest rates on unsecured debt, and now that a jobless recovery has extended unemployment periods for record amounts of time, people are forced into bankruptcy to start over.

Creditors get stiffed. Hey, they took the risk, right? Nobody is guaranteed an income in our system. Meanwhile, my lawyer warns me that once the bankruptcy is over, these same greedy lenders will be clamoring to offer me all sorts of unsecured debt.

Too absurd for words? You betcha.

Before I leave this subject to do some productive writing, might I point out that consumer spending is what is required for economic expansion?

Think about *that* for a while.

AM:

I agree with you 100%. There have been statements concerning deadbeats that file bankruptcy and charge on charge cards. Each individual is a different case. Such as yours,AM.

The charge card companies are definitely to blame for sending out cards to anyone,anything and anyplace. They don't have the slightest idea if you have the finances to repay. They are only worried about charging a high interest rate of 20%+.

And you are correct, the consumer spending is 66% of the economy. But how much do they have left. That is question that needs answering.

Even though this thread is going off topic about bankruptcies, I will address the above statement:

What about taking responsibility for your own actions? You still have to accept the credit card agreement and activate the card. Then you have to actually make purchases with this credit card. Is anyone forcing these people to use them?

Back to the topic of the thread.

Yes we are in a recovery.

I voted neutral because I haven't been effected either way and don't have any investments. Heck, 3 years ago I was scraping to get by and I'm still scraping to get by.

As some of you foolishly like to believe we are in a recovery and all these new jobs being created at the sametime new jobs are being created others to this day are being layed off still. I saw of last week on MSNBC that there were still layoffs at several companies and just yesterday Toys R' Us are going to be closing there clothing stores so there is more layoffs. Woot we in a recovery if that is a recovery leave me out if it.

I love countering spin.

Toys R' Us is closing some of their Kids R' Us stores not 'their' Toys R' Us stores. Also one of the other branches of their other divisions, can't remember name off the top of my hand.

But that's all besides the point. I wouldn't be basing the countries economic condition from a toy retailer.





Too bad we don't have grammar check.

Since I would be willing to show more evidence since Sleeper seems to need evidence of Toys R' Us which I never said Toys R' Us was closing rather their clothing line stores which at the time I could not remember the name of their clothing line stores here's an article that will show how many insignificant those job losses are.

http://www.silive.com/news/advance/index.s...66778253420.xml



Then here's some unrelated evidence of how the job losses are for others.

http://www.iht.com/articles/108413.html



http://www.bayarea.com/mld/myrtlebeachonli...ews/7180644.htm





http://www.moneymag.com/2003/11/04/news/economy/challenger/





Here are just a few links and quotes I found while most of these links did say we had some sort of economic recovery they also said that economic recovery is not just the GDP going up but also jobs hiring people is needed in order to fully say we have a economic recovery.

Sleeper:

I was getting ready to send you some examples of other companies laying off people,but Cadman has already answered your question. Everyday there are numerous companies laying off people.

Have you ever considered that the unemployment rate is going down a small amount because of people that are unemployed have quit hunting for a job and are not being counted anymore.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm



1.6 million people are not being counted. I would think that is quite a number.




Also the average workweek is only 33.8 hours. That is a long way from 40 hours.

So are we in a recovery. Not enough facts are in yet. It will take 3-6 months of positives figures to convince me and most of the American public.

It takes a little more proof than a few months of figures thrown around.

I will just let my posting from this thread speak for itself.

Dept of Commerce report for Q3, What does it mean in real terms?

In this thread you will see evidence of the economy growing, jobless claims dropping(for 5 months now), payrolls increasing.

I know it saddens you that this turn around is happening under a republican controlled presidency and congress, but the economy is turning around.

Couple more links:

Growth

Growth

But it was down this past 2 months because of added jobs. Once profits start to come in more and more, we will see more hiring. Yes, the job market is still a little volatile but that will soon end

I am sorry,but I don't see where jobless claims have dropped for 5 months. Maybe I overlooked it but I didn't see it in the link you provided. Maybe you could put it in quotes.

And everything isn't that rosy. In the first link you provided, it states,

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/07/news/econo...dex.htm?cnn=yes



In your source it states "job growth is still not strong enough to keep up with the 150,000 or so new entrants to the labor force very month".


GA:



It sounds like you are a spokesman for the Bush adminstration. They have been giving us false promises for the past year. I won't believe it until I see it.


Sleeper:



I will be the first one to admit you are correct when the economy is definitely in good condition. No, I want all people to have a job that want a job,whether it is in a democrat or republican adminstration.

The only reason I am debating this is because it is too early to declare the economy has finally turned around. I hate to see people told everything is rosy and then they get disappointed again.

Since it seems some have overlooked some very debateable information I will repost it.

http://www.moneymag.com/2003/11/04/news/economy/challenger/



I know this might be hard to interpret but the information contradicts your claims Sleeper that jobless claims have dropped for the last 5 months when you see US companies set 172,000 cuts last month the highest in a year. As well as some people have stated that some people are either no longer collecting unemployment for several reasons like the time limit that they can collect has run out, people have just given up looking in this hard economy or several other reasons.

You forgot one piece of information from your source popeye. Here let me state it for you.



WOW! Eight straight quarters of economic growth. No way the economy is growing, can't be.

Granted we have lost jobs. But not because of lack of economic growth, which this thread is about.

And I did err when I said months, If you refer to the other thread about 3Q findings it was 5 weeks, I apologize for misspeaking.

Then see this:

IBM to hire 10,000 over next couple years

Yep, and I just read this month's Fortune rag about what is to happen in '04.

Consensus? Nobody knows.

You've got indicators going this way and that, and in the past some of this movement indicated growth. But growth doesn't necessarily mean work for Americans.

Cuz you see, times, they have been a-changing.

Trying to politicize this doesn't matter. Doesn't matter if Repub or Demo has power. This is bigger than both.

What happens to the fishies when the pond dries up? Move, evolve, or perish.

Our biggest best bet is to evolve, i.e., innovate. Create. Make things happen that have never happened before.

Neither of the Big Two parties are talking this way. They need to start.

Yes,eight straight quarters of economic growth.

But what do the experts in this field say. It takes 3 to 3.5% growth just to stabilize unemployment and to keep the economy from sliding downhill. How many of those quarters were above this percent? Anything less than this percentage is nothing to write home about.

Then see this, from www.gnp.org/india.htm:

IBM plans to move jobs from the US to India & elsewhere
Senior executives at IBM told subordinates that it planned to move jobs overseas to India and other countries. The appropriately named Tom Lynch, IBM's Director of Global Employee Relations, said in a conference call that "Our competitors are doing it and we have to do it."

Lynch also told staffers that he was aware that US politicians are feeling the heat from their constituents, and that there is a growing backlash against the trend by companies to move jobs overseas for low-cost labor. "It's hard for me to imagine any country just sitting back and letting jobs go offshore without raising some level of concern and investigation", Lynch said in the conference call. (end of quote)

I am sure the government of India is thrilled.

What can the government do? Fine companies who move their jobs overseas to get cheaper labor? The Unions can complain and then complain to politicians, but that's it.

What they could do would be to tie corporate tax rates to employment of US workers, and impose tariffs on goods produced by non-US companies to ensure that offshore relocation to evade the taxes isn't worth it. This would provide incentive to hire domestically, and also make domestically produced products more cost-competitive.

Should the government do this? There are many reasons - from the ideological (market distortion) to the long-term practical (protectionism only postpones the inevitable) - why they should not. I happen to believe they should not. That's a topic for a different thread, though.

I think I know the solution to the problem. All the people in India working for IBM and other American companies will buy our low priced goods produced by people in foreign countries, with companies that have offshore addresses. That is the only solution that I know.

Oh yes, there is one other solution. The very few American citizens(flipping hamburgers or shining the CEOs shoes) that still have a lower paying job can take up the slack and buy,buy,buy.

The economy will never fully recover if U S companies are allowed to continue using offshore addresses and not pay any taxes. An example, is numerous subsidiaries of Halliburton,which was the practice when Cheney was the CEO and is still the practice today.

I am thrilled too! They claim 1/4 of the world's poor live in India. I see nothing bad about a country who under new economic reforms is in fact growing stronger and more capable of caring for it's populace.
The United States lives in a world of many countries..all of which are bound together in a world economy.
One of us grows, betters and gains financially we all do. We are all connected and you can not continue to believe that we in someway can survive and flourish without one another ...because we never have have we?

If even they do benefit the world, it doesn't benefit American workers who get laid off. And it doesn't do too well for politicians either

Good story in Time this month:

Freelance

Other stories spoke to finding employment through unconventional means, moving to the Midwest, and moving to follow the jobs.

But of special interest to me are the freelancers. One point especially: You can work your tush off on a project and not get paid.

The term that will become part of the common vernacular is "shyster." That was used in reference to illegals who do day work and the business folks who take advantage of them (NPR news report, maybe two weeks ago).

Well, it's happening to legals, too.

So what can the government do? How about some legal aid to get shysters to pay up? How about some freaking help for citizens trying to scrape out a living?

I swear (and often), eyes have to open up here. Some politicians are listening, and I'm proud to say that a Colorado senator (Wayne Allard, R) is one of the first to recognize the problems. I even forgive him for being a Republican

Once again jobless claims are lower(week of Nov22), the stock market is nearing 10,000, businesses are increasing their inventories again.

Are there those out there who still do not think the economy is recovering?


Edited to fix a double negative.

Its a real play on words isn't it - "The Jobless Recovery".
So who is recovering? Not the average joe six-pack obviously.
I believe there is a small (very small) improvement, due to fierce intervention by the fed and the tax cuts. But can it last? Not likely IMHO.
It has just extended the inevitable, and probably will make things worse in the long run. More and more debt is being run up, both by govt. and personally.

I'm surprised nobody has discussed the coming energy shortages in relation to this economic recovery. The basis of the US economy is growth. What creates growth, but energy, cheap energy, without it growth will retract.
That is what I believe to be happening. Of course we will all be affected by this, but because the US uses a quarter of the worlds oil, they will be affected greatly.
China functions on a whole lot less oil per capita, so a cut in their supply would have less effect on their economy.

Storm Tactics - Energy & Power




There is limits to growth, and because the US fiat monetary system and indeed capitalism relies on growth we will have some very interesting to say the least, years ahead of us.

Jobless recovery? How do you figure? And who is Joe Sixpack?

cusbilla

Cusbilla,

Joe Six-Pack ['sıksˌpæk] noun (U.S.) (slang)
an average or typical man

How do I figure what?

I'm so glad you picked out the important points to debate

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ...dlines-business



It looks like your improving economy doesn't know which way it wants to go.


And YES there are individuals who still think the economy IS NOT IMPROVING.

Pretty simple question..how do you figure it's a jobless recovery?

cusbilla

LOL I knew this was going to happen. Popeye watches the news sites and as soon as any bad news surfaces he goes "WOO HOO, Yesssss! The economy is in a downward spiral"


11,000 Job difference in a population of 280,000,000 is not a big move but it was an increase.

But you forgot to mention the line in the story about economists mentioning that jobless claims under 400,000 are considered a recovery.

Try again.