Kinda slow at work today so I was sitting in the customer lounge watching CNN reporting on the recall.

I thought I would start a thread based on what people think will happen in the election.

If the recall goes thru and Arnie is elected there will definitely be lawsuits brought by the democrats on the recall election itself and possibly the election of Arnold.

If the recall fails by a slim margin there will be a lawsuit by the republicans.

If the lawsuit against the recall of Davis and election of Arnold fails, then democrats will push for prosecution or investigation of the alleged charges.

I think it's a toss up. McClintock (whom I like) should have dropped out if he really wanted a Rep to win. And I read that Simon and Uberroth(sp?) are still on the ballot, so that may lend confusion.
Dang, I just don't know.
Here is a Web Site that will be tracking the results, updating every ten minutes, starting at 8:00 pm. (I'm assuming CA time)

Full Article



In a close race we won't know who is going to win until the absentee ballots are collected and tallied. There are still 1.2 million that are not accounted for.

Certification Time line

Monty

Nice link.

I predict Ahnold will win.

Here is a better question, will CA recover from this before the end of the decade? If Arnold wins there is going to be a rolling wave of continual recall referendums. CA's referendum structure is so screwy it literally asks for things like this to happen. Also as a former Republican, since when is it Republican to oppose tax raises in the face of a 10 BILLION dollar deficit. Thats not the kind of thing you can mend by cutting out free breakfasts for school kids. If they are that overstretched both the Republicans and Democrats need to stop squabbling and CUT programs while RAISING taxes. Their situation is so screwed up its no longer an either or proposition. They need to do both.

Sad you didn't hear anything about that in the run up to the election. If you went by Dan Rather's description the election was over Davis being too boring and Arnold liking to squeeze random women's breasts.

If you have your own question to pose, please do not hijack my thread. Start one of your own.

I've believed Arnold would win from the start due to name recognition. That didn't stop me from voting against him, however.

Get ready for the governator,

though i do fear that the democrats will be up in arms and try to get more recalls on arnold even before he has a chance to screw up (which is the reason you recall someone).
we shall see.
but my prediction is arnold (our very own, serial gropist, nazi loving, steriod using, joke of an actor) and i am very optimistic about his administration, i hope he can take us out of the rut, and i hope his advisors are as smart as they are supposed to be.



Quane

Stanford's Hoover Institute has a new poll out which indicates that Gray Davis will be recalled and Arnold will win. If Arnold repeals the tripled car tax, places spending caps on the state government, and reforms worker's comp like he says he will, then I think his governorship will be a success.

Perhaps a non biased poll would be better to determine the election results. Personally I am going to watch exit polls. I realize in my last post that I did not give a prediction. So, I predict that the Recall does not happen.

Monty

I think:

Recall : Yes, with about 55% voting to Recall Davis.

Arnold will then be elected, with around 41% of the votes. Bustamonte will have 30-35% of the votes, McClintock around 15%. The rest scattered on also rans.

Spending cuts are going to be needed. Arnold will need to reverse Davis's "drunken sailor-ism" and his vote buying efforts.

Since Arnold is not a career politician, I think he can make the tough fiscal decisions, unlike Davis (or any other candidate, for that matter).

He is being elected to the biggest job possible as an immigrant (unless you believe Senator is a bigger one...) Nowhere to go but retirement, so you might as well do a good job, Arnold.

EDIT to add: I am surprised that Davis has not played the "Immigrant Card", but the wild allegations of Hitler-worship are enough, I guess.

I think Arnold is going to win, and rather easily. His campaign has been brilliantly run, something we haven't seen from a Republican in California for quite some time. What's going to be entertaining is seeing what the Democratic party does next.

I don't think a recall will happen. But I feel it will and Arnold gets in.

My mind does the numbers: lots more Demos than Repubs in CA. Seventy percent turnout predicted, so no recall.

But my political guts say that Arnold will get in.

Then there's a little part of me that wants Larry Flint as guv of the porn industry state. It's a very small part.

I think you've pretty much called it right as far as your numbers go. I only disagree with the rest of your post.

Aquilla, I'm sure someone in showbiz is going to have a much glitzier campaign...that's a no brainer.

Escape is futile.

Arnold will win

You fear correctly. There will be a huge push for another recall almost immediately.
And define "screwing up," please. Since California state law neglects to confine recall votes to cases where there's any evidence of criminal misconduct, the way I see it, it's all fair game. One man's fiscal mismanagement is another man's sexual misconduct.
Incidentally, I think Arnold will win.

So the democrats would rather keep the state in recall turmoil, then allowing the man they newly elect a shot at fixing the problems?

eeeeeeeeh politics *barf*
democrats and republicans suk equally. there it is. I said it.

arnold will win (not that I mind) and he'll win by getting dem votes, repub votes, women's votes...yathink we would hate him right? No. and yaknow why? BECAUSE WE'RE USED TO MEN BEHAVING BADLY, that's why

anywhich, arnold got cruz's hispanic/latin vote (mine included).

my mistuh voted for cameho, the green guy. fool.

This is what I think on poly parties aside from them sooking. rather than having a token "socialist" party, which NOONE in America would vote for. THAT party should be renamed the "Liberal Democrat" party. Same thing with the Repubs. the "conservative" or "pro-life" side of the repubs should be renamed "Conservative Republican party".

The vast majority of americans do not like all these funny named parties. This is a fact and the reason why these parties get nowhere. Greens, Socialists...

However the vast majority of Americans DO know what a liberal dem is. They leeeeeeeeean left of Dem center. very similar in philosophy to the greens and socialists. They Do know what a conservative repub is. These folks leeeeeeeean right of repub center.

The Democratic party AND the Republican parties can no longer claim to be "one size fits all.

I am a registered Republican, yet I am for a woman's right to choose, for decriminalizing weed and medical marijuana (horrors for the conservative side of the republican party. I am for a strong defense and in favor of a healthcare somewhere in the middle of universal and private. in other words I dont favor socialized FREE healthcare but do see the need for the less fortunate to have something. and the list goes on where I agree with some party philosophies and disagree with others.

so where am I? I'm a centrist repub. which is why I voted for Arnold and not tom mcclintock. Tom didn't speak for all of what I believed. He was spot on , on some but not all.

Liberal Dem
Dem
Centrist Repub
Repub

Hopefully, one day.

As the results haven't started coming in here yet, I predict that Davis will not be recalled - by a very slim margin. I've been wrong before though - I predected Gore would lose the 2000 election.

damm

I hope not.

When Arnold wins though, there is already a recall AND criminal charge awaiting him. LOL

We have ......... The Governator

Actually, the Statue of Limitations on Sexual Harassment depends on the state and or employment:

Satute of Limitations on sexual harassment

Ha, funny.

Wertz, you CAN read the Constitution, can't you?

Gore lost fair and square.

Arnold is in, by the way.

Bustamonte is claiming a HUGE victory, because Prop 54 was defeated. (Oh, and by the way, (shhh) I concede the recall election... )

actually, I think the dems will have to wait six months before they can start another recall.


I personally don't think a recall is warranted, and it is still possible that davis might not lose. (last I saw only 13% of precincts had reported. that was about 20 minutes ago) there are at least 10 million in cali, and 13% is like 1.5 million people. I say we wait until ALL the ballots have been counted and verified.

While this is the stuff of another thread, I can, of course, read the Constitution. Apparently, the Supreme Court of the United States cannot. I have also read the Constitution of the State of Florida. Perhaps you should take another look? If you really want to flog this long dead horse, you know where you can go...

I personally hope the Democrats don't attempt a recall of Schwartzenegger, should he win. But that particular party has not been known for their wisdom of late.

27% of the precincts have reported in now and Arnold i still ahead.

Anyways, i think that the people will laugh at anyone who will try to recall the Governator. The people thought that this recall was a joke in the first place so anyone trying to initiate another one will be laughed out of the state and be told to stay out.

Davis lost. The Dems can't stand being stabbed AGAIN by the Repubs in an election. They will want revenge by taking out Arnold, and they won't get the chance!


Wertz:



The dems are the same way. Their filibustering has led to some hostile words from the Hispanic community over Estrada

Political guts got it, and so did Arnold.

I recommend we all give a listen to Madonna's version of Evita. Simply substitute "California" for "Argentina," "Sacramento" for "Buenos Aires" and it all fits. Oh yeah, "Arnold" for "Peron."

Will Arnold find job satisfaction in Paraguay?

Are Californians getting the government they deserve?

Subjects for future threads.

BTW Wertz, I get it

I hope for the sake of Californians that Arnold Schwarzeneggar will be an effective governor. They have certainly had a hard time during this recession.

I think they should wait to recall Arnold until they can get Susan Sarandon to run against him...

On a positive note, Gray Davis was exceptionally graceful in defeat. He said that the voters had spoken, and even told the crowd to get behind Arnold when they started chanting for Arnold's recall.

Davis's political career may be over, but at least he went out with a lot of class.

I'll wait and see on that, Amlord. It's not what Davis says so much as what he does that defines him. We'll see if he can actually show some class for once in his political life and actually handle the transition professionally. I'm not holding my breath on that though, there are rumors that he may take some sort of scorched earth action prior to leaving office and frankly, I wouldn't put that past him.

I am seriously worried about the next three years in CA. Schwarzenegger has made so many promises he can't keep, I don't think he will be reelected, but for three years we have to deal with a governor that hasn't taken a stance on much of anything, and that worries me. I almost wish McLintock had won because at least I would know what evil he would do. Who can predict what Arnold will screw up?

Don't worry too much...Arnold is only a fiscal conservative...he's liberal on everything else.

Um, I was referring to the Democratic Party, GA.

Sorry about that.

This thread is a little past its' prime but I felt I should weigh in on this question because it's a threat everbody keeps making. Most people might not know this, but almost every governor elected including Pete Wilson and Ronald Reagan and Jerry Brown, had attempts to recall them. I would actually say that it is the norm to attempt recalls in CA. The difference, no one could collect enough signatures because most people are okay with the government and don't support recalling officials, but here we had a dummy who just didn't get it. Davis' problem in the recall was the same as before the recall. He didn't listen to people. He made all the wrong decisions that the people didn't want and then continued to assume that the leftists would show out to support him, not realizing that he completely disenfranchised almost all of the rest of CA. The recall was a referendum on Davis and CA Democratic Party spending, not on a bad economy that bush caused, hence more recall attepmts are expected, but they probably won't go anywhere.

Quick! Somebody check to see if the sun rose in the West and set in the East today.

I actually agree with 99.9 percent of John Locke's assessment of what happened in the California recall.

I'd better go lie down now. I'm feeling a bit woozy.

I can't believe Arnold is going to try and take money from Indian gaming. Like life on a reservation is so great since the casinos have been around, the last thing Native Americans on their own land surrounded by California need is to be plugged for cash they don't owe.