"Knowledge is Power" (Sir Francis Bacon)
" All warfare is based on deception." The Art of War


One of the great 'what ifs' of history is:

What would have happened it the Germans had known the enigma code had been broken in WWII? The BBC last April in their 'What if' series asked this question and there are some profound implications. It has been my experience that a question like this takes on a life of its own so I'm going to keep it simple the see where it leads. What follows is an exerpt from the introduction to the program and a link to the BBC homepage. There you will find an audio feed to the 1/2 hour program as well as a link to other stories in the series.



What if the German's had known Enigma had been broken

I don't think that the outcome of the war would have been any different if the Germans would have known that the Enigma Code had been broken. All it would have done was make the war a bit longer. My reasons for this are as follows:

1. Hitler was fighting a two front war and that was taking its toll on the economy.

2. The US was giving the Soviets military equipment under the Lend Lease Act which was making things exceedingly difficult for the Germans, not to mention the Russian Winter and the resistance both of which had a devastating effect on the troops of the Eastern Front.

3. Numerous attempts on Hitler's life were taking place and many of his best generals were being killed as a result.

4. It would have only been a matter of time before the U-boat force was eliminated which was, besides Q-ships like Penguin, the only way Germany could raid Allied shipping.

5. The Atomic bomb was nearing completion and we probably would have dropped one on Berlin which would have probably speed up the close of the war in Europe.

6. The British might have put Project Foxly into action and assassinate Hitler which would have allowed resistance members in key positions to seize power and negotiate a close to the war.

One of the primary benefits of having this kind of intel is that they could find the u-boats. Most likely the invasion would have been postponed due to the inability of the U.S. to move men and material across the Atlantic. The war would have continued for years and the implications for the holocaust are staggering. In August of 1946 the death toll was well into the millions both from fighting and the wholesale genocide of the Nazi's.

The atomic bomb being dropped on Berlin is one other possibility. There was an Italian opera after the war that ended with Hitler dieing in a fiery blast at the end of the thing, supposedly from an atomic blast. While this has a very dramatic effect I am pretty sure that the conventional weapons used in WWII did far more damage then the atomic ones. Lets consider one other possible consequence or benefit, we might not have had to deploy as many troops in Europe. I'm not really sure what the implications of the Cold War might have been, it might have given the Soviets more control. Also the cost of rebuilding Europe after the war could have easily doubled and the costs of maintaining the War effort may have resulted in there being far less money available.

I agree that the outcome was unavoidable but the war was over in 14 months after the invasion. Postponing that invasion would have had a number of consequences related to the protracted battle for the Atlantic and the ongoing destruction of Europe.