QUOTE(quarkhead @ Mar 4 2004, 06:50 PM)
Giving the US government the benefit of a doubt, we can conclude at best that the use of the atomic bombs was a horrible mistake, reached through bad vetting of intelligence - intelligence which was incontrovertible, even at the time.
I have posted at some length of this topic before in this thread, and I must ask where you come to that somewhat unsupported conclusion.
Firstly, with regards to the survey you cite, I find it baffling. It is an accurate and intelligent summary of the war, and then goes into great detail to explain how the cabinet was not about to surrender, there was a deadlock, and only the atomic bombs combined with 'other factors' (such as the invasion of Manchuria by the USSR) allowed the Doves to intervene with the Emperor and agree to surrender. The document explains this quite clearly, that surrender was NOT going to happen, and the events of early August made it possible for surrender to happen.
Then, it makes the completely unsupported declaration: "Nevertheless, it seems clear that, even without the atomic bombing attacks, air supremacy over Japan could have exerted sufficient pressure to bring about unconditional surrender and obviate the need for invasion."
It is most certainly not clear, in fact the Survey itself goes some way to explain why surrender was not inevitable. Earlier in the survey they mention that while morale was low, there was no popular unrest at all about the war, and the entire population of japan would probably have quietly submitted to death in war had the Emperor asked it of them.
I have spent a great deal of time going over the transcripts of the cabinet meetings, and it is very clear that surrender was not going to happen. The Hawks in the cabinet could NOT have been overcome, as they outnumbered the doves, held positions of greater power, and both army and navy had the ability to dismiss the cabinet a will, which they had done in the past when they were disagreed with. Only the interference of the Emperor, the first time that had happened in 5 years, broke the deadlock. Even then, several Hawks launched a coup to place the Emperor in protective custody and reverse the decision, the coup narrowly failed. While the general population took the news with shock, then releif, the military objected as a whole, many pilots flew out on kamikaze missions after the broadcast of the surrender against orders, and over 120 ranking oficers committed suicide.
Not only was the surrender not inevitable, but the survey does a good job of showing exactly why the surrender was not inevitable. How the bomb can be classified as a "horrible mistake" baffles me, the survey also does a good job of pointing out just how the relative power of the bombs stacked up: the two bombs were a total of 24 kilotons of explosives, but in the 18 months before the bombs, the US had dropped over 160 kilotons of explosives on other Japanese cities, and another 494 kilotons on Japanese targets outside the home islands. In addition, 2.7 megatons of bombs were dropped on the Germans. Individual conventional bombing raids of Japanese cities had produced results of greater damage, and greater loss of property and life than either of the atomic bombs.
Lastly, I am further puzzled by your blaming the dropping of the bombs on bad intelligence, or ignoring incontrovertable intelligence. What evience was ignored exactly, and what exactly did this evidence demonstrate which showed that the dropping of the bombs would be a 'horrible mistake'?
You speak of clear signs that the Japanese were about to surrender: what signs exactly? A Japanese ambassador in Europe sent out peace feelers days before the attack, the Japanese government condemned him to death as a traitor. was that a sign? The japanese were mobilising and training for the great Ketsugo plan to efend the home islands to the last man. Was that a sign? No communications suggesting anything like an upcoming surrender being possible had come to the US or its allies from the Japanese. Was that a sign? Following the dropping of the first atomic Bomb, the Japanese still did not surrender. Was that a sign?