QUOTE(DesertFox @ Dec 24 2003, 12:55 AM)
Personally I believe that FDR had sufficient evidence to know that the attack on Pearl Harbor was coming. Everything pointing the the "disappearance" of the Japanese Carrier Fleet points to an attack on American Bases in the Pacific, including Hawaii.
FDR had met with Churchill a few times by now regarding the war in Europe. I believe that he wants to use the Pearl Harbor attacks to declare war on the Axis, and hence get in the action in Europe, therefore not putting the fleet in Hawaii on full alert.
Also by a surprise attack, FDR wanted the Japanese to be seen as villains in the eyes of the world, as attacking a nation without a declaration of war isn't justified.
Forgive me, but thats a bit silly. Firstly, there was no reason to assume there would be no declaration of war by the Japanese, in fact there WAS a declaration of war, but due to a clerical error it was not delivered until AFTER the attack had taken place.
Secondly, as I already stated, a sneak attack from the Japanese would put the US further from a war in Europe, not closer.
Thirdly, it is true that the Japanese carrier fleet being lost was a cause for concern, but this is not the days of sattilite imagine and high altitude spy planes. Those carriers could have been anywhere, even just around the corner or still in Japan. Even if they knew the carriers sailed with hostile intent, it was very reasonable to assume they would head for British or Dutch or Chinese interests, and EVEN if people knew they were moving against the US, the obvious choices of targets were Wake, the Phillipenes and Midway, to name a few. The fact that their spies and radio traffic could not find the carriers for a few days meant nothing.
Lastly, even if all the above was not true, why leave PH unprotected and unready? Why not spring a trap or at least prepare your forces to fight back? The attack still takes place, the war is still on, Japan is still the aggressor, and the US does not risk losing its entire Pacific fleet and main Pacific naval base, and in fact possibly even deals a serious blow to the Japanese Navy.
Instead the US 'cleverly' left itself all but defenceless in the Pacific (Remember, doctrine at the time was for Battleships, supported by carriers, not for carier war. To the Navy, the Battleships were the biggest prize) for months, leavign japan free to consolidate and expand, and take other US posessions in the pacific without reinforcement.