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Do you think that the deployment of Air Marshals decreases or increases the chance of a successful terrorist attack?
Also, do you personally feel safer knowing there is an armed air marshal on the flight and if so why?
It seems that Air Marshalls will decrease the chance of success of a terrorist attack for the simple reason that almost
any security measure will reduce (by some marginal amount) the chance of success of a terrorist attack. It is one more element that must be accounted for and, hence, adds some level of complexity to the planning of any sort of operation. This is not to suggest that the Air Marshall program is the most effective method of protecting against terrorist actions on airplanes, nor that the amount of protection offsets the cost of the program. I suspect it will take some time to make informed judgement about these questions. I will say, however, that it's likely that the possibility of trained and armed law enforcement officers on a flight is a considerable complication and, while it may not deter terrorists out of fear, may make it harder to mount attacks and, thus, reduce attacks in number.
Terrorists can adapt to the presence of air marshalls. - Adaptation to security measures is a fact of life whether the security is for protecting airplanes from hijackers or protecting your home from burglars. Any security device can be accounted for and adapted to or worked around. This does not, however, suggest that these measures are useless. The power of security, it seems to me, lies in the combination of measures rather than in any single tool. As an analogy; when protecting your house, doors can be broken, locks cut, alarms shorted, and the police avoided, however all of these measures together make for a difficult time stealing your valuable collection of 19th century snuff boxes. The same is true for airline security. Air marshalls can be over-powered or blackmailed via hostages, metal detectors avoided or fooled, screenings skipped via the use of aliases, etc. But all of them together make it harder for a potential hijacker to do ill to passengers on a plane.
What is more important, to me, is the understanding of how air marshalls are to be used. I believe such officers are seen as the "last line of defense" rather than as the primary means of avoiding hijackings. I think it's fair to say that once a hijacker is on board an airplane, the battle is in great danger of being lost. That is even more true if the hijacker has managed to get explosives, a knife or a gun on board as well. Hence, an air marshall is a final chance at avoiding tragedy against poor odds. This thinking, it seems to me, answers, in part, the concerns around hijackers using force or trickery to get an air marshall's gun. A hijacker on a plane is dangerous, air marshall or no. The marginal increase in danger from overpowering a marshall (or marshalls, I believe they work in pairs or trios to avoid the tactic of one person creating a disturbance to lure out the marshall) seems small against the final chance to act against armed terrorists.
The pressure on foreign air carriers to allow the use of air marshalls is a more complicated issue. Certainly, it's reasonable to expect an appropriate level of security before allowing a carrier to use US airports and if air marshalls are particularly effective than I can understand the request. It seems, though, that any country should be careful about making demands like this on commercial ventures. What would happen, for example, the the UK government were to suddenly demand that US airlines begin profiling passengers for IRA ties before allowing them to fly (leaving aside the larger issues with profiling for the moment)? I'm less sure of the arguments listed here about cultural differences. I've only been living in Europe for the past 15 months or so (splitting time between the UK and Holland) but in that time I've seen armed UK police in the airports (my job requires me to fly weekly), the train stations, and even patrolling Oxford Street before Christmas. While I agree that many officers still patrol unarmed, the concept of the armed police officer is hardly unknown (at least in London) and, from what I could see checking in at Heathrow and shopping in Hamley's, didn't seem to be causing the locals a disproportionate amount of angst.
In all, I guess I think the air marshall program does decrease the chance of success of a terrorist attack and that seems a good thing in all. I'm not nearly informed enough to opine on the more specific issues of American law enforcement on foreign carriers and of the pilot's authority over an air marshall while the plane is in the air. I would think that these issues are details in how best to implement the air marshall program rather than fatal flaws in the program itself.