Full Version: Are we facing a deadly flu like in 1918/19?
The following questions are related to this and this article.
Do you think it is possible that the flu will mutate and kill millions like the infamous flu in 1918, costing 20 million lives?
What could be the consequences of such an outbreak and what could be done to stop it?
Do you know whether your government takes actions to obviate a massive contamination in your country? For I know that the German government has started to produce massive amounts of an anti-virus to the current flu.
Do you think it is possible that the flu will mutate and kill millions like the infamous flu in 1918, costing 20 million lives?
What could be the consequences of such an outbreak and what could be done to stop it?
Do you know whether your government takes actions to obviate a massive contamination in your country? For I know that the German government has started to produce massive amounts of an anti-virus to the current flu.
http://www.tagesschau.de/aktuell/meldungen...M1_REF1,00.html
Sorry, its in German, but its only 10 minutes old. Seems like it's already happening.
Content: Two German women seem to have been infected by the bird flu in Hamburg.
It's spreading like a wild fire.
Sorry, its in German, but its only 10 minutes old. Seems like it's already happening.
Content: Two German women seem to have been infected by the bird flu in Hamburg.
It's spreading like a wild fire.
Sevac - please avoid posting links 99% of us can't read. This is America's Debate. Consider your audience when debating here.
From what I have read about the Bird Flu, it will not become epidemic this year, but next year watch out. Strange how China continues to create all these Flu epidemics, 1. Asian flu, 2. Swine Flu 3. Sars, 4. Bird flu 5. Hong Cong flu and more i have forgotten, It all starts in the Pig pins in China, migrating birds, ducks, now chickens land or wallow in the pins, and then fly off to spread the germ or virus. Maybe they need to kill off the Pigs instead of the chickens.
I'm certain that we will have another deadly flu outbreak like the 1918/1919 variety. As I understand it, the flu virus kind of ebbs and flows in terms of strength. It still kills thousands of people, and thus cannot be ignored. I'm not certain what our government would do to protect us, I think they're more concerned about things like dirty bombs and anthrax, as opposed to the flu. 
On a seperate note, if you are interested in microscopic things that would kills us--you might want to check out: "Living Terrors:What America Needs to Know to Survive the Coming Bioterrorist Catastrophe" by Michael T. Osterholm and John Schwartz. A great read.
On a seperate note, if you are interested in microscopic things that would kills us--you might want to check out: "Living Terrors:What America Needs to Know to Survive the Coming Bioterrorist Catastrophe" by Michael T. Osterholm and John Schwartz. A great read.
Sooner or later there will be a serious flu outbreak on a par with the 1918 outbreak, or worse. However, it may or may not be this one.
I haven't seen any statistics so far to indicate that anyone has had this new bird flu variant and survived, so if it does spread it might have a very high mortality rate. On the brighter side, I haven't seen anything to say that there has been more than one case where it was transmitted between humans - all the other cases have been in close contact with birds.
The fact that the world is now aware of it's existance when there have been fewer than ten fatalities globally (at the time of writing) gives me some hope, however. SARS (the last global plague in waiting) was a very serious disease, but the quarantine regulations and travel restrictions introduced meant that it blew itself out fairly rapidly without causing too many problems. It isn't often we get a reason to be grateful for a global media, but it may just be able to help contain outbreaks like this for the foreseeable future.
Bioterrorism is, of course, something that such restrictions wouldn't stop, especially if the terrorists are smart enough to release the bug in many places at once.
I haven't seen any statistics so far to indicate that anyone has had this new bird flu variant and survived, so if it does spread it might have a very high mortality rate. On the brighter side, I haven't seen anything to say that there has been more than one case where it was transmitted between humans - all the other cases have been in close contact with birds.
The fact that the world is now aware of it's existance when there have been fewer than ten fatalities globally (at the time of writing) gives me some hope, however. SARS (the last global plague in waiting) was a very serious disease, but the quarantine regulations and travel restrictions introduced meant that it blew itself out fairly rapidly without causing too many problems. It isn't often we get a reason to be grateful for a global media, but it may just be able to help contain outbreaks like this for the foreseeable future.
Bioterrorism is, of course, something that such restrictions wouldn't stop, especially if the terrorists are smart enough to release the bug in many places at once.
If you want to be really concerned read this book on the 1918 Pandemic:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detai...=glance&s=books
The actual number of dead could have been as high as 100 million. The War and the less than accurate reporting of all deaths may have kept the reported death numbers lower than they actually were.
Yes the only question is when and will it happen. The “bird flu” could be the next wave since there seems to be some indication that the virus may have aquired the ability to be air spread. The WHO is asking for calm and says we should not panic,
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Living/ap20040203_1446.html
What experts fear most is the virus mutating into a form that passes easily between people a pandemic strain that is a hybrid of the bird virus and a normal human influenza variety.
"What we're saying is that we're not dealing with an imminent threat to public health, but we are dealing with a potential threat to public health," Ryan said.
The good news if there is any is that in this era we can produce an effective vaccine if we have 3-4 months notice which we get each year as the normal flu moves from Asia around the world. Of course SARS showed us that some viruses can move very quickly around the world. SARS is not the flu though – its worse, with a death rat as high as the 1918 Flu Pandemic and very infectious.
A sumit is being put togeather to address the "bird flu".
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3454717.stm
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detai...=glance&s=books
The actual number of dead could have been as high as 100 million. The War and the less than accurate reporting of all deaths may have kept the reported death numbers lower than they actually were.
Yes the only question is when and will it happen. The “bird flu” could be the next wave since there seems to be some indication that the virus may have aquired the ability to be air spread. The WHO is asking for calm and says we should not panic,
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Living/ap20040203_1446.html
What experts fear most is the virus mutating into a form that passes easily between people a pandemic strain that is a hybrid of the bird virus and a normal human influenza variety.
"What we're saying is that we're not dealing with an imminent threat to public health, but we are dealing with a potential threat to public health," Ryan said.
The good news if there is any is that in this era we can produce an effective vaccine if we have 3-4 months notice which we get each year as the normal flu moves from Asia around the world. Of course SARS showed us that some viruses can move very quickly around the world. SARS is not the flu though – its worse, with a death rat as high as the 1918 Flu Pandemic and very infectious.
A sumit is being put togeather to address the "bird flu".
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3454717.stm
Do you think it is possible that the flu will mutate and kill millions like the infamous flu in 1918, costing 20 million lives? Anything is possible, but I would seriously doubt it. Our knowledge of disease and the mechanisms of transmission today are light years beyond 1918. Penicillin wasn't even discovered for another 10 years, and many (if not most) certainly died of secondary bacterial infections.
What could be the consequences of such an outbreak and what could be done to stop it? Quarantine and vaccination. Quarantine seemed to work well for SARS, an airborne coronavirus that mutates very frequently. I don't think the deaths from that are up to a thousand yet...only in the hundreds, in a world with several billion more people than 1918.
What could be the consequences of such an outbreak and what could be done to stop it? Quarantine and vaccination. Quarantine seemed to work well for SARS, an airborne coronavirus that mutates very frequently. I don't think the deaths from that are up to a thousand yet...only in the hundreds, in a world with several billion more people than 1918.
Correct me if I am wrong but there has been only 13 deaths that I am aware of.
To me that hardly comes close to be an epidemic of any sorts.
West Nile Disease to me is far worse.
I forget the total people killed but it sure was more than 13.
People die all the time from flu related illinesses.
Will this be any worse than any other flu?
I don't think so.
I agree with Mrs. Pigpen.
To me that hardly comes close to be an epidemic of any sorts.
West Nile Disease to me is far worse.
I forget the total people killed but it sure was more than 13.
People die all the time from flu related illinesses.
Will this be any worse than any other flu?
I don't think so.
I agree with Mrs. Pigpen.
The flu this year actually was an “epidemic” in many parts of the country. Which means large numbers of people were infected at one time in a particular area. To date I believe 113 children have died. The flu kills about 36,000 Americans EVERY year.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,106923,00.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,106923,00.html
QUOTE(Ted @ Feb 4 2004, 01:33 PM)
The flu this year actually was an “epidemic” in many parts of the country. Which means large numbers of people were infected at one time in a particular area. To date I believe 113 children have died. The flu kills about 36,000 Americans EVERY year.
Sure...but how does that juxtapose with the several million dead from the 1918 pandemic? Immunocompromised people are likely to die from any serious illness.
Well, it looks as if this bird flu and the 1918 flu are somewhat related.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/.../020500324.html
At the same time, we have some good news from the WHO
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/.../020705141.html
Still too early to tell, has anyone heard anything more?
QUOTE
But the findings, to be published Friday by the journal Science, do highlight how important it is to monitor avian flu - because the research suggests it might take fewer genetic adaptations than once thought for a bird virus to begin spreading from person to person.
The research, conducted separately by scientists at the Scripps Institute in La Jolla, Calif., and at Britain's Medical Research Council, used lung samples preserved from victims of the 1918 flu to reconstruct a protein crucial to their infection.
"These were not little steps but big strides toward understanding, at the structural and molecular level, what it is about these strains that make them dangerous," said Dr. Gregory Poland, a flu specialist at the Mayo Clinic who reviewed the research.
The findings don't completely explain the 1918 strain's virulence, cautioned Michael Perdue, who investigates avian flu at the Agriculture Department's Agricultural Research Service. Other factors than the protein studied, called hemagglutinin, play a role too, he said.
But "this would put together several pieces" of that puzzle, Perdue said. Also, "it suggests the potential is certainly there for rapid transition from an avian to a mammalian strain."
The research, conducted separately by scientists at the Scripps Institute in La Jolla, Calif., and at Britain's Medical Research Council, used lung samples preserved from victims of the 1918 flu to reconstruct a protein crucial to their infection.
"These were not little steps but big strides toward understanding, at the structural and molecular level, what it is about these strains that make them dangerous," said Dr. Gregory Poland, a flu specialist at the Mayo Clinic who reviewed the research.
The findings don't completely explain the 1918 strain's virulence, cautioned Michael Perdue, who investigates avian flu at the Agriculture Department's Agricultural Research Service. Other factors than the protein studied, called hemagglutinin, play a role too, he said.
But "this would put together several pieces" of that puzzle, Perdue said. Also, "it suggests the potential is certainly there for rapid transition from an avian to a mammalian strain."
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/.../020500324.html
At the same time, we have some good news from the WHO
QUOTE
The World Health Organization said the bird flu virus that killed two Vietnamese sisters did not contain human genes, meaning there is still no sign the virus sweeping Asia has mutated into a new, more contagious form.
The women's blood was tested because experts suspected they may have caught the disease from their brother, who also died; but that link could not be proven because the brother's body was cremated. So far, there have been no known cases of person-to-person transmission in the current bird flu outbreak.
Health experts have been most worried about the possibility of the disease combining with the human influenza virus to create a more lethal version that could be spread between people - giving rise to a global pandemic.
The new data is "reassuring" evidence that the H5N1 bird flu virus that's hitting Asia has not acquired that ability, the WHO said in a statement posted on its Web site late Friday.
The women's blood was tested because experts suspected they may have caught the disease from their brother, who also died; but that link could not be proven because the brother's body was cremated. So far, there have been no known cases of person-to-person transmission in the current bird flu outbreak.
Health experts have been most worried about the possibility of the disease combining with the human influenza virus to create a more lethal version that could be spread between people - giving rise to a global pandemic.
The new data is "reassuring" evidence that the H5N1 bird flu virus that's hitting Asia has not acquired that ability, the WHO said in a statement posted on its Web site late Friday.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/.../020705141.html
Still too early to tell, has anyone heard anything more?
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