QUOTE(Vermillion @ May 26 2004, 01:13 PM)
QUOTE(logophage @ May 26 2004, 07:29 PM)
I have to disagree here, Vermillion. Traditionally funded (i.e. government funded) manned spaceflight has been very expensive; this doesn't mean all techniques of manned access to space must therefore be expensive as well. Tourism is proving to be a viable money-making proposition. It would behoove government space agencies to get in on the action.
Firstly, I think you massively overestimate the potential viability of Space Tourism with current technology. A single shuttle launch costs $280 million dollars or more. A single Soyuz launch costs $75 million dollars, but offers significantly fewer options in space, and is about 3x more dangerous.
(EDIT: Odd statistic drawn of NASA homepage, considering there has never been a disaster with the modern Soyuz module, and there have been 2 shuttle explosions: furthermore there have been MORE Soyuz launches than shuttle launches...)
I don't believe that I've overestimated anything. I think you've underestimated the viability of cheap orbital access. I do agree that what we have today is very expensive. It is mostly derived from ballistic missle technology motivated largely by military applications.
I strongly recommend you read some of the links I've given. Access to space doesn't have to be hugely expensive (just moderately so). Tourism is the primary motivator for cheap, manned space access. There are other motivations, such as science or manufacturing, but these do not have immediately tangible returns.
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Even ignoring the above stats, those are for orbital launches, which mankind has more or less perfected. For any kind of further venture, the cost muliplies by several factors.
Manned flights are always FAR more expensive, as people are fragile, have to be kept alive and most importantly have to be recovered. Unmanned probes are hardy, do not require atmosphere food or water, and can be left on the target.
I agree that manned space flights will always have the life support issue to factor in. On the other hand, unmanned probes are not as versatile. And some types of operations require versatility. Probes do exactly what they're told even if it means crashing into a planet rather than landing softly. There are trade-offs. I don't disagree, however, that for exploration purposes unmanned space probes have the advantage.
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For serious exploration space tourism is obviously not an option:
-Firstly bringing tourists along on a first-time exploration is incredibly dangerous and foolhardy, and increasesthe cost in space, food water abnd safeguards for what is essentially a useless crewmember.
-Secondly, given the VAST prices of manned space travel, even at $10 million dollars a head, you would still need a school-bus full of people to even defray a part of the cost, and half of that 'profit' would be spent keeping them alive and expanding the vehicle to take more than a core team.
Umm....I don't think I've mentioned manned exploration being the driving force behind manned spaceflight. And I agree that manned space exploration is pretty much a non-starter at this point. However, manned outposts for tourism, manufacturing, mining and so on, could be viable economically. It is really too soon to tell. Once access to earth orbit is sufficiently inexpensive, then we can continue the debate.
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Conservative estimates of a trip to Mars are between $5 and $15 billion dollars for a single trip (nobody is sure yet). Round trip would be close to 2 years long. Space tourism could not hope to cover even just that one trip.
Thats just a guess. The last actual cost estimate of a trip to Mars was done in 1989, and it produced a cost over 10 years of $400 billion dollars. Obviouslym that was 15 years ago and technology has improved, but nobody really knows how much a manned mission to Mars will cost.
Eventually, I can see space tourism making a small difference in costrs for local trips, but extra-orbital travel is not viable for tourism and is FAR more expensive.
Yes, I think a manned trip to Mars while having a high cool factor has a low return value. If there is sufficient evidence of Martian life and our political/social/scientific will is great enough, then I could see where a manned science mission to Mars may be worth it. I think it is too soon at this point.
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Unmanned exploration: safer, FAR cheaper, faster and with far less risk to life, is the only viable alternative right now. Manned exploration at our current level of technology is national posturing descended from the Cold war.
You mentioned the Mars stuff. Manned spaceflight into Earth orbit does not equal a mission to Mars. Nor is the only justification for manned spaceflight exploratory.