QUOTE(Eeyore @ Feb 18 2004, 02:59 PM)
Bush has decided to weigh in clearly on the issue of gay marriage in his reelection run for 2004...
The question for debate is:
Is Bush's stance a winning one for the coming election or is he more likely to get hurt by taking a position on a moral/social issue.
It is looking more and more like November will bring us a close election.
Scenario 1) It will probably hurt George W. Bush if the gay Republicans decide to vote against him on principle. It is less likely to hurt him if they simply stay home and don't vote on election day.
Scenario 2) Perhaps Bush is right, and there are no gay Republicans. Then all he risks is having the gay Democrats become activist, and working hard to get out the vote. As it is almost unheard of for either gays or Democrats to be politically active, Bush is likely discounting this scenario.
Is Bush's stance a winning one for the coming election? He is apparently presuming that if 10% of the population opposes him, that the other 90% will unite behind him. A policy of divide and conquer worked that way for awhile with the war on Iraq, and he may feel this is an issue that divide us just as effectively.
At one end of the spectrum are the homophobes, at the other end are the gays. In between? From my window, I can probably see a dozen or so homes. They are my neighbors. Who are they? I don't know. What is their life style? I don't know. Is it any of my business whether or not they are married? Not that I am aware. I am not a policeman, a lawyer, a doctor, a teacher, or a tax official.
I have known, over the years, a number of committed gay couples. I may not be a typical voter, but this is not an issue that is going to cause me to line up behind this President! Ergo, it will not help him to get my vote. In San Francisco, about 2,500 gay couples have been married in the past few days. I would have to count that as 5,000 adults who will likely not vote for Bush in November. How many gay couples were not ready to come out, couldn't afford to fly to San Francisco, felt a marriage license was an overpriced and unnecessary souvenir, or simply didn't get in line fast enough? How many of them will vote "Anyone But Bush?"

Who will line up to support Bush because of this "courageous stance" of his? Likely, this will help him get the support of the Religious Right, and it is possible that he thought they were faltering in their support for "Anyone on the Republican Ticket."
In the background,
Lou Dobbs Tonight Quickvote is asking:
QUOTE
LOU DOBBS TONIGHT QUICKVOTE
What do you believe is the most important issue in the 2004 presidential election?
Economy
Healthcare
Education
Iraq
Gay marriage is not even being viewed as a real issue in this election by the talking heads... If Don Quixote de Crawford wants to don his armor, climb aboard his elephant, and aim his lance at City Hall... He should be aware, there is a maxim that says, "You can't fight City Hall."