Musharraf: 'High-value' al Qaeda target surrounded
Edited to add:

Well, it's almost official...Osama's Deputy Ayman alZawahri is cornered. Musharraf
said they will go in with attack weapons in that area. Unclear whether U. S planes will go in on a search mission.

The Associated Press and Reuters reported officials believe it may be Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri. Willing to bet Osama is not far from the area of his deputy.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/03/1...aeda/index.html

http://www.cnn.com/




Just heard the above news on CNN, Aaron Brown reporting from Pakistan. The reason Musharraf believes they may be surrounding someone of HIGH VALUE is that for several days, intense fighting has been going on with many casualties of Pakistani troops. At first they thought not too much of the al Qaeda group, but as time went and the fighting became more intense, Musharraf was told that the alQaeda group's intense fighting may be because they are protecting someone of significant value.

The HIGH VALUE person is the deputy, Ayman alZawahri. Do you think Osama is in the area?

What importance do you think alZawahri's capture or demise plays in the al Qaeda organization?

If Osama is trapped in this attack, is it important that he be captured rather than killed?

What significance will Osama's capture or death play in the WOT?

How I hope OSAMA is nearby and is included in the air attacks. If Osama is captured (don't believe he will surrender as Saddam did), I think he will not be a co-operative informer other than gibberish. So, whether he is captured or killed doesn't really matter IMO.

Unlike Saddam's capture, Osama's followers will continue the fight and it will not end the WOT by any means. In fact, Osama's demise may cause the acts of terror to intensify all in the "name of Osama." What his end may do is further squeeze the flow of money to the groups of cells and reduce the al Qaeda organization's capabilities. As Condi Rice said on a Sunday talk-show, "The al Qaeda's world is growing smaller and smaller."

Condi Rice said that catching Osama or Ayman alZawahri would be significant, but not the end of the al Qaeda. The al Qaeda network must be destroyed.

Yes, I saw on CNN the breaking news about an unusually pitched battle on the Pakistan/Afghan border.

I sure hope it's Osama!

As far as whether he is better off dead or alive,

(1) If he dies, the head promoter of martyrdom becomes a martyr himself, and terrorists will continue to do what they have been doing to innocent people all along, except maybe they might try in earnest to duplicate something of the magnitude of 9/11/2001. I don't think they will pack it in, but wouldn't it be wonderful if they did?

(2) If he is captured alive, he can be interrogated and brought to trial, but his followers might decide to take hostages in a desperate attempt to get him freed.
It would be better to capture him alive so he could divulge some badly-needed information about terrorist cells.

Those are my thoughts which, with about five bucks, might get you a cup of fancy coffee somewhere.

Everyone has a right to be tried, including Osama.

If it is Osama, the significance of his capture will not be an end to terrorism (and in fact maybe be a recruitment factor as a "martyr") but it will probably help GWB in his election bid since it will be a great media moment for GWB.

The reports I'm reading are saying it's the #2 guy in Al Qaeda....



This from MSNBC.

I hope we get him, dead or alive is of little consequence to me personally although he may be more useful alive as a source for information. I'm not sure what this means politically and quite frankly, I really don't give a darn, Scarlet. The important thing is that we continue to dismantle Al Qaeda by whatever means necessary. Getting this guy would be a big step forward in that process.

If it is Osama, its important that he is captured and not killed. The whole world should have the opportunity to see this guy on trial for all of the horribles crimes he has planned and committed.

The significance of his capture on the WOT will send a clear message to terrorists from the US that there is no where to hide or run and that there is a price to pay for terrible crimes committed. It will obviously help Bush in his re-election bid but it won't seal it. The WOT is so much bigger than Bin Laden, so if anything I would expect to see more terrorists attacks against the US and other countries.
But the symbolic capture of him would be huge.

I hope it is Osama for sure, and that he is captured alive. It will be a far more significant capture than even Saddam Hussein, and will be a huge boost for the WOT, plus this is someone that the American people have a direct quarrel with.

In that respect, it will be a major milestone in the WOT. Some may say it has taken a long time, but it is just 2 and a half years since the terror attacks in New York and Washington - thats no time at all really. If Osama is captured and is shown to the world alive on video (in a tasteful manner of course) the terrorists will see that they havent caused as big a rift in the west as they think. Most people/nations/organisations who opposed the Iraq war will be quick to offer praise and support for the US, hopefully bringing the West back together to continue the WOT on the same side.

First of all, it's probably NOT Osama and maybe not even his deputy. The situation is completely speculative. Certainly a lot of well-trained fighters in the area, but that could just be leftovers from the Taliban or something else. Hard to know the players without a good scorecard and Arab nations are notorously poor at giving out scorecards.

However....

Osama (or deputy) should be caught alive and taken to, say, Saudi Arabia or Israel, where we'd get the most information value from him.

Taking him off the playing field doesn't significantly help the War on Terror, because Osama's only a minor player as he hides in his cave somewhere. But he made a good "bad guy" for the politicians to rant about. Why is he only minor? Because although he's at the top of the AQ, AQ tends to operate its cells pretty autonomously. Kill the head, the cells still operate. The information on the downstream contacts, though, would be useful, but only for a short while.

Al Qaida is religiously motivated.

In order to have such an negative inspiring effect on individuals, a highly charismatic figure must be there forwarding the message of hate. It was true with Hitler (German resistance after the demise of Hitler did not last very long...) and it will be true with Osama.

Lopping off the head of the snake in this instance is very important.

The capture of Osama, on the other hand, will serve as a lightning rod, outraging enough fanatics to inspire reckless suicide attacks. This is my appraisal of the situation, of course. Al Qaida is currently not reckless when carrying out attacks, which makes preventing them somewhat achievable. Fanatics who want to free Osama may not need the organizational support that Al Qaida provides. I would predict a dramatic rise in terrorist attacks should Osama be captured rather than killed.

I too hope they quickly get Usama (although I'm not counting on it just yet....). Maybe Usama was in the area, but that certainly doesn't mean he is there anymore

As to capture or killed, I think captured is better. I follow the reasoning of Robin Scotland on this:

,

not jenrieautter:



Remember, this is a War on Terror, not a Criminal Investigation on terror. In my mind, Usama's rights don't enter into the picture in the slightest--he has none. It's all a question of what the best course of action is for the US and other concerned parties. If a trial is deemed to be the best path forward, to display his actions and demonstrate that even for people like him we'll follow that path, then so be it. But if its decided we're better off if someone just walks up and puts a bullet in his misguided brain, I don't have a problem with that, either. Maybe we could compromise--put him on a plane and fly it into the side of a courthouse?

I would also like to emphasize, as shown in the below quote from MSNBC, that this is a very significant undertaking by the Pakistanis.



No room there to question their commitment to the cause...and we all know Musharraf is taking a beating politically for it. Kudos to him, regardless of the outcome.

I think Osama is probably in the vicinity but i think he and al-Zawahri may have split up far from each other just in case either one of them is captured


If he is captured, he will be a great book of information on cells in the US and abroad and plots being hatched as we speak. It would be an intelligence coup!


It would be better if he died. If alive, his incarceration will be a focus point for attacks. Al-Queda members will be blowing things up and demanding his release


It will be a big victory in the War on Terror. BUT the problem is...if he is captured or even killed, Al-queda will still be blowing things up either for revenge in his death or will be killing and demand for his release if he is captured alive


I sure hope they do get him. He probably won't give up his boss no matter what because of his loyalties but he could be a good source of information on Bin Laden's health and other al-queda members

Hobbes:

Well....at least the Pakistani military are well equipped to fight this battle. I hope they are successful. I heard on Fox News that they may start using air strikes soon.


I would agree with that. It would also put Iraq on the media back burners for a week.

With the capture of Dr. al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden will probably lose his health caregiver. That will be a significant blow to a man with renal failure.

Remember, if (and I dearly hope when) the Pakistanis capture al-Zawahiri, he will be a prisoner of Pakistan, not the United States. I hope that will not present problems, considering that a large number of Pakistanis have been determined to be sympathetic to bin Laden.

What importance do you think al-Zawahri's capture or demise plays in the al Qaeda organization?

I think this question is more of how Osama goes down (if it is him)- if he is shown meekly surrendering to soldiers, and then submitting to a US trial, it will be seen by many as a coward and weakling, which is very significant in a society/culture such as Osama's, whereas if he is wounded/goes down fighting, it will probably only strengthen the Al-Quaida network.

I am with Aquilla though, I really don't care on that front, I think it is better for the morale of the troops and the US population in general to see this guy dead or in jail, and that is more important to me anyway.

The bad side of course, is it is good political fodder for GW, whom I despise almost as much as OBL himself.

I agree with Amlord on this. I think AlQuaeda will lose much in the way of motivation and recruiting ability with either of the top 2 being brought down.
There will always be crazies out there willing to kill for their causes but if we deal in the harshest possible terms with those we will discourage others from following them. You cannot reason with madmen. Ever since Reagan failed to do anything about the barracks bombing in Beruit we have been on the course to 9/11. Bush was exactly right in going after AlQuaeda and trying to decimate them.

I'm starting to think I'm becoming a conspiracy person. I think this will end up another empty search, until there is any confirmation. Every single news agency so far says they "suspect" Al Zawahari is there but there isn't any concrete evidence. You think one solider would have a pair of binoculars there with them or maybe a spy satellite. I think this is another case of a rabid media and an administration bringing up how well they are handling the WOT. Call me a pessimist but I believe half of what I see on the news and nothing of what they "suspect."

If this weren't an election year, this idea probably wouldn't even come to mind. For your statement to be true, it would mean that Pakastani President Musharraf, the Pakastani military, our military, Aaron Brown of CNN in addition to all of the major media organizations....just for starters... went along with President Bush just to make him look good!

It is beyond my belief and frankly beyond my scope of time to argue such a statement.

If you were bin Laden or Al Zawahari, would you personally be peeking out the window at the soldiers?

They are guessing at the importance of the camp based upon the fierce and persistant resistance. Of course there is nothing concrete.

Yeah, maybe I went too far with the Bush comment, but look at all the evidence they have so far. "They are fighting really hard." Of course they are, they are surrounded, and who fights a war just a little bit.

Yup, because they are fighting for their life. It's not like the Pakis are going to surrender when they have them encircled. I doubt these guys give up because the are "extremists" and believe in their cause. This sort of reminds me of the Alamo. Remember The Alamo!

If the Pakistani troops don't start storming this fortress or whatever they are at soon, there WILL be nothing there. Al Zawahari might be gone by now for all we know. If they would let the US come and help, our troops could start a gun battle on one side of the place while on the other side, a bunch of troops start tearing down the door

And BTW: Pakistan does not have a spy sattilite at their disposal!


Rabid media is right. They wouldn't continue onto something new on Fox News. I swear, if someone would've declared war on someone, Fox News will still have the "FOX NEWS ALERT: Pakistan troops have 'high valued target' cornered" and would be talking to some "expert".


Reminds me of Tora Bora


Amlord:

Well, even when Bin Laden had left Tora Bora, the militants were fighting like there was no tomorrow. Like i said: If Pakistan doesn't storm this place soon, the "high valued target" will be long gone!

Sorry I was referring to the US SpySats. Just because we can't go in, it doesn't mean we can't look in. Well I don't think they can escape. I read on one of these many press releases that they are surrounded by thousands of troops. Though if nothing does turn up, I wouldn't be surprised if they say the HPTs must have fled.

This is an extremely delicate situation for Pakistan I think and I am sure they are getting whatever help they need from the United States, including a spy satellite moved into position. More likely we would send a Predator, but that's beside the point. The important point here is that Pakistan, a primarily Islamic nation, is taking the point against Al Qaeda and that is a pretty remarkable thing. If they are able to catch this guy, or to kill him, that's great. If not and he slips away, oh well, we'll eventually get him, but the help we've received from Pakistan in our War on Terrorism should not be overlooked.

I agree. Pakistan has arrested more Al-Queda members (including a couple biggies) then any other nation in the world (besides us in Afghanistan and cells here in the states).

Pakistan should be more recognized for their effort

As far as pro-war coverage goes I wouldn't call it a pro-bush bias... Just a pro-establishment bias and pro-american bias (naturally) on the part of our media.

As far as the surrounded high value target goes, I just hope the pakistani special forces are more competent than the american brain-trusts who didn't surround Osama at Tora Bora.

They surrounded Osama at Tora Bora...they just allowed him to get away by calling for surrender then giving them more time to surrender

Maybe, but he's 6 feet under the area (IMO), so what does it matter?



None. If anyone thinks it would have a significant impact, they don't understand the compartmentalized construct of Al Qaeda organization. Read up.



See response 1, above.



See response 1 and 3, above.

As far as those great fellas in Pakistan being a bunch of regular guys, you might want to read today's posting on Whiskey Bar titled "A Friend in Need". Also, if you want a little light reading, try In Kaiser Wilhelm's Shadow from the same site.

Occam's Chainsaw: Opening your eyes won't blind you unless you're looking at a nuclear fireball.

On the news tonight it looks like the Pakistan goverment is going to get some help via airpower very soon. Seems we are starting to task some of our resources to them right away. EVery body is now talking Al Zawahari - I bet he is dead real soon.

Congress voted today to up the reward on Osama's head from 25 million to 50 million per link to article:


http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/03/18/...d.ap/index.html




Let's hope Al Zawahari and his fighters stay put. I heard one former special forces agent say the terrain in that area is unbelievably dangerous and virtually unknown to the Pakastani troops because it has been "off-limits" to outsiders for decades by various tribal factions until President Musharraf talked with them and said, "This cannot go on, you must let us in there!" Like looking for a needle in a haystack or worse!

Rather than a victory for a sitting President, if we catch #2 and better yet, Osama, it will be a "checkmate" for their mistreating and killing thousands of innocent people around the world. It won't stop the network of al Qaeda, but it certainly will be two less whales in the mix of a whole lot of fish! Their demise will be a psychological impact on the network, IMO.

Although there are tapes and pictures of Osama and Al Zawahari walking and traveling together, they don't know if Osama is in this particular group. Somehow, I feel that Osama is not too far away from his good friend and doctor, Deputy Al Zawahari.

I just wish they would take the place now. It is very irritating that they have yet to breach this place. It seems Pakistan should have involved us in the beginning and this thing would have been over with sooner.

I also heard that the rebels are using women and children as shields....typical

I don't think that criticism of Pakistan is particularly warranted at this time, nor is it helpful. Pakistan has been, and continues to be a steadfast ally to the US in the war on terror and this operation is just one more example of their help. We don't know what the US is really doing there and we will probably never really know. It's an extremely sensitive situation for the government of Pakistan and the absolutely LAST thing we want to do is cause more problems for them. They are going to have to do things in their own way and I'm sure the US is fully supporting them in whatever fashion they need. I have read where there are elements of Task Force 121 in the area, on the Afghanistan side supporting the operation, and believe me, that is some major league support. These cretins aren't going to slip away.

While I'm also some what frustrated with their inaction, sending in our troops would just destabilize the situation. The only reason why Pakistan is supporting us is because the "with us or against us" statement. The vast majority of the Pakistani population disagree with Musharaf, and he is trying his best to appease both sides. If he were to lose control of the situation not only would we lose a critical ally, but put their arsenal (conventional and now nuclear) into the hands of extremists.

Musharaff is involved simply because he can take the wind out of the extremists sails. Also they've been trying to kill him. The military is firmly behind Musharaf although there are always wildcards in any organization. If Musharaf falls another of the military will take his place.
I for one am glad India is behaving right now and not attempting to muddy the situation although I'm fairly sure we have probably warned them it would be unwise to do anything right now.
I hope to hell that it is the 2nd in command they have bottled up in there and they get their hands on the sneaky SOB. Osama is the money and the "Face" of AlQuaeda but this guy is the brain.

I hope Osama's 2nd in command is in there also. It would almost cripple Al-Queda. It would also hurt Osama because he needs this guy is his doctor

Musharaf is a dictator and should not be an ally. He is not legitimate. He is in power by doing a deal with conservative Islamic members of his parliament and he originally took power in a coup. In my opinion he is a Saddam waiting to happen. Look to the 70s and 80s and see the parallels between Iran and Iraq (and the US alliances) and India and Pakistan. The US played both sides for a while but in the 80s settled for Iraq. It seems the US may be doing the same here but may not fall so heavily against India as they did with Iran. But should a war break out (just like Iran and Iraq) then we will see how the US decides to align allegiances. Perhaps Musharaf thinks he'll win the support if he gets OBL and then, in a few years time, goes for Kashmir. Still, there's alot of second guessing going on here. However, the historic parallels (though there's no oil involved) are quite striking.

India is behaving at the moment because it owes the US for letting them buy military equipment from Israel: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3145301.stm

It's just a bit of give and take so Pakistan can forget about Kashmir for a bit and chase OBL.

Musharaf has received $600m in military aid and this is the main reason he can go more whole-heartedly for OBL and his pals. Firstly, because he can bolster his resources for this mission and secondly, because his security forces therefore have more weapons and men to beat down any dissent to his dictatorship.

The HIGH VALUE person is the deputy, Ayman alZawahri. Do you think Osama is in the area?

Nope. I think he's in Saudi. I'm very skeptical that even al Zawahari is there.

What importance do you think alZawahri's capture or demise plays in the al Qaeda organization?

It'll be a blow but not fatal. After all, the "organisation" is just a lot of independent cells coming up with its own plans, mainly.

If Osama is trapped in this attack, is it important that he be captured rather than killed?

If he's killed he'll be a martyr. He wants to be a martyr. I'll be utterly stunned if he's captured alive.

What significance will Osama's capture or death play in the WOT?

Martyr. A recruiting tool. Which is why the WOT is not conventionally winnable. Which is why we have to look at the recruiting points these people use. Such as Israel/Palestine.

Schooly

That's an expensive campaign ad!


The HIGH VALUE person is the deputy, Ayman alZawahri. Do you think Osama is in the area?
He's probably somewhere in Pakistan - though the House of Saud may well have welcomed him back. The again, he could be in Miami...

What importance do you think alZawahri's capture or demise plays in the al Qaeda organization?
Virtually none. It would be of some importance to the Bush campaign, though.

If Osama is trapped in this attack, is it important that he be captured rather than killed?
For whom? God knows, the Saudis don't want him talking - and I doubt the Bush administration does either. Besides, killing him would avoid the whole sticky issue of where and how he should be tried.

What significance will Osama's capture or death play in the WOT?
It would have some impact as bin Laden was largely a money-man. Again, though, bin Laden dead would be far more important to the Bush campaign than bin Laden alive is to al-Qaeda's campaign.


Look for the capture or death of bin Laden (or the "discovery" of his body) sometime around October. If he's caught or killed before then, look for another terrorist attack on US soil sometime around October...

Why would the Saudis want him back? He's killed many people in Saudi Arabia witht he 2 bombings in the capital and he has also screamed for the deaths of the Royals. That and the Saudis don't want to handle him because he is a hot potato and they are trying to clean up their image

The Saudis have alot to lose in either direction with OBL- they have a fundamentalist goverment- but thier corruption is very thourough, and OBL is very non-corrupt in thier minds IMO. So if he dies- he's a martyr, if he returns to Saudi, the enemies of the Faud goverment may get some traction with OBL there- the Saudis have been playing a dangerous game for a long time.

Just found out who's hiding in that mud fotress: Article

A radical Uzbek mullah who is one of Osama bin Laden's most important lieutenants is believed to be the senior al-Qa'eda figure leading the resistance to a ferocious five-day Pakistani offensive in Waziristan, the Telegraph has learned.

Thanks GoAmerica! Very interesting although the latest news reports don't sound too encouraging. IMO, the fact that Pakistanis have never been allowed in this area because tribals haven't permitted outsiders until Musharaf demanded access, is a hint the region would be an ideal hiding place for al Qaeda forces protecting their "high value" leaders. Due to the terrain and unfamiliarity of the region which prevented the Pakistani forces from moving at night, I think some valuable time may have been lost waiting for daybreak in their search.

At first I thought because of the intense fighting and duration of the stand off, that maybe at least one "high value" was surrounded with their forces. But, I am beginning to think that maybe this intense fighting is two-fold: they want to preserve their "hideout" from being overtaken by Pakistani forces and while the royal battle is going on....a group of al Qaeda and possible "high values" are on the trail to another safe haven. Their number of options for "safe havens" is diminishing slowly but surely.

Ayman alZawahri would be a "whale" of a find because he is the brains behind the organization and unlike Saddam/Iraq, if either alZawahri or Osama are captured or killed, it won't bring the al Qaeda network down...they have plenty in line ready to take over. But, the more "high value" members that go down is a plus on our side and just one of the events that makes their world of operation grow smaller and smaller.

Not OSAMA....but here is more updated and possible HIGH VALUE news:

Prediction on this story: it's a PR story and not real. Just like the original story "We think we have Osama or his deputy". Pakistan is looking for a win and a PR win is good enough for them.

I am and always have been skeptical of any news coming out of Pakistan. I believe the country is only playing the U S for aid and anything else they can obtain.

Their army seems to be very inept or just plain lying. I have little or no confidence in the truthfulness of this regime.

Any country that has allowed their nuclear scentists to sell nuclear material or the blueprints for making one, and then kiss and forgive does not help me to sleep at night.

Was there a high-value person pinned up in that region? Only heaven knows!!!

They did kiss and make-up with the scientist who leaked the secret but even worse, WE DIDNT SAY ANYTHING ABOUT IT!

That amazes me. I guess we'll let Musharef get away with anything so long as hes our thug.

I'll go with inept because they couldn't take the compound early enough. US forces would have taken it on the first day.


I have more confidence in this regime then i do the Saudi regime

Yep, welcome to the real world, Santasdad. This is the sad reality of our alliances. You sometimes have to team up with an enemy to beat another one.