I have to go with the opinion that there aren't a whole lot of positives that Bush can run on right now, so his campaign is dwelling on negativism toward Kerry.
Case in point: Bush's position on outsourcing, although it is popular with major corporate leaders, does not play as well to middle class, hourly workers. Now THE DAILY MIS-LEAD comes up with this story:
Bush Outsourced Fundraising & Voter OperationsQUOTE
According to the report, the Republican National Committee shipped the India operation its voter database for 125 local staff to use to "solicit political contributions ranging between $5 and $3,000 from thousands of registered Republican voters." While the contract for running the campaigns was originally awarded to Washington-based Capital Communications Group, "for cost and efficiencies gains, the company outsourced the work to HCL Technologies that in turn sent it offshore."
Public pressure has forced President Bush has to downplay his support for outsourcing. But this new story is consistent with his Administration's actions in support of shipping American jobs overseas. Late last year, the New York Times reported that the Bush Commerce Department co-sponsored a conference at the lavish Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York that was designed to "encourage American companies to put operations and jobs in China"2. Then, this year, the President's top economic adviser said outsourcing was "a plus for the economy"3.
Whether that plays well in Peoria or not largely depends on how many people there are unemployed. If the economy, specifically jobs, weren't an issue it wouldn't be a big deal.
If Karl Rove is wise, he is going to focus on a wholesome George and Laura Bush: Main Street U.S.A. image. The negativity being aired to discredit Kerry could well backfire when a large portion of Bush's supporters like to think of themselves as decent people who would rather not get down and dirty with the opposition in this election. Plus--there are plenty of people in the Kerry campaign, still smarting from the years of Clinton-bashing, who are all too willing to respond in kind.
And I for one would rather not see the negatives. I am not as dispassionate as some posters here when I see unfair campaign ads.
Edited to add:In a Friday, May 14 article in The Washington Post (you have to register to get on, so I'll quote parts of it instead) entitled
Bad Signs For Bush in History, Numbers:
QUOTE(Dan Balz)
Frank Newport of the Gallup Organization pointed out that, in Gallup's surveys, no president since World War II has won reelection after falling below 50 percent approval at this point in an election year. "Looking at it in context, Bush is following the trajectory of the three incumbents who ended up losing rather than the trajectory of the five incumbents who won," he said.
<snip>
This president's problems are linked directly to deteriorating perceptions of how he is dealing with Iraq and the economy. A solid majority of Americans now disapprove of his handling of both. As a result, his overall approval rating has declined. But Bush's advisers said his standing in October, not May, is what counts.
<snip>
At this point in the race, strategists in both parties said, a president's approval rating may be a clearer and more reliable measure of where the contest stands than head-to-head matchups with the other party's candidate. They say the public first makes a judgment about the incumbent and then looks more seriously at the challenger.