Thank you, gentlemen, for your responses. I did my best to avoid bias when I opened this thread. I guess now is good to assert an actual opinion.
I agree with Gray Seal & Nebraska29 that the qualification of sufficient polling data is a problem. There is ample evidence that polls are not always right, and even when they are right, they are constantly in flux.
Examples of the vacillating and sometimes inaccurate polls and subsequent explanations for this abound.
QUOTE(Andrew Kohut @ Jan/Feb 2001)
This year, CNN/USA Today started their tracking on September 4, and freshened each day's reporting with 300 new interviews that replaced 300 taken three days earlier. The polling -- conducted by Gallup, which does high quality interviewing, sampling, and turnout screening -- nonetheless produced loopy results that defied credibility. In one five-day stretch in mid-September, for example, when very little was happening in the campaign, the horse race ranged from a ten point Gore lead to a three point Bush lead. And so it went for much of their two-month daily reporting.
Low Marks for Polls, Media, Columbia Journalism ReviewQUOTE(Gerald S. Wasserman @ 1996)
These week-to week changes are much larger than the random[2] sampling errors associated with such polls. Why then is there so much fluctuation? Conventional wisdom usually attributes such changes to genuine campaign developments and much newspaper space has been taken up by the interpretation of poll changes in this way. As a result, readers interested in politics are regularly treated to stories explaining the advance or retreat of one or the other candidate because of one or another news event. The conventions are particularly supposed to have great power to modify opinion, albeit only temporarily.
Why Do Campaign Polls Zigzag So Much? Department of Psychology Perdue University Another problem with relying on polling indicators as a debate eligibility requirement is the fact that many agencies leave off third party candidates when conducting their polls.
CNN/USAToday/Gallup did this in this
1996 Election Poll Currently, two of the major polling companies are failing to include some third parties in their polling questions also.
Zogby’s
2004 Presidential Election Battleground States Tracking Poll currently asks voters:
QUOTE
* If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote -Republican George W. Bush or Democrat John Kerry?
* If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote - Republican George W. Bush, Democrat John Kerry, or Independent Ralph Nader?
* Overall opinion - George W Bush
* Overall opinion - John Kerry
* Overall opinion - Ralph Nader
* Overall, how would you rate President Bush's performance on the job?
* Do you think President Bush deserves to be re-elected, or do you think it is time for someone new?
* US Direction
* What are the two most important issues facing the country today? If there were another major terrorist attack in the United States, who would you prefer to have as president - George Bush or John Kerry?
CNN/USAToday/Gallup are also guilty of this as evidenced by their
recent poll questions:
QUOTE
1. If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?
2. Now suppose Ralph Nader runs as an independent candidate, who would you be most likely to vote for?
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
4. What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
5. How would you rate economic conditions in this country today — as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
6. Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse? 7. How do you think Ronald Reagan will go down in history -- as an outstanding president, above average, average, below average, or poor? 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling:
A. The economy
B. Foreign affairs
C. The situation in Iraq
D. Terrorism
E. Energy Policy
I am baffled as to why the Libertarian candidate,
Michael Badnarik was left off. He is on the ballot in
49 states and the official candidate of the
Libertarian party. How is he ever to register his 15% if he is not even listed on these polls by name?
With all due respect to Nader, I am not sure why these major polling companies are including him and not Badnarik. If these major polling companies are going to be allowed to directly influence our presidential elections, they need to start acting more responsibly with their poll questions.
To further evidence the Commission on Presidential Debates’ bias toward the two party-only debates, we can look to the candidates themselves. Both Bush and Kerry have stated that they and the American public do not care about the polls.
QUOTE(Senator John Kerry @ January 18, 2004)
You know, George, I don't care about what those polls say today. I don't care about what polls say in a month or five months. What's important is what you're fighting for and what you want to do for Americans. Americans don't care about polls.
ABC This Week with George StephanopoulosQUOTE(President George W. Bush @ June 15, 2001)
I don't even know what polls you're talking about, nor do I care…
Christian Science MonitorQUOTE(President George W. Bush @ November 12 2003, Interview with UK press)
Q But it is striking, isn't it, that opinion poll after opinion poll --
THE PRESIDENT: I don't know, I don't read them.
White House Transcript Here we have evidence that the major political candidates and the American public do not care about polls – why should the CPD?
If the CPD is truly interested in providing “the best possible information to viewers and listeners” then they ought to start acting like it. As it stands now they appear to only be a cog in the wheel of the two-party machine.
The polling portion of the eligibility requirements needs to be abolished. I agree with Nebraska29 that the requirement of being on the ballot in all 50 states would make a good addition. The balloting process is expensive, confusing and arduous. If a candidate can get past all 50 checkpoints on their way to the presidency, the CPD should be willing to accept them into the debates.