Greetings, all. Thought it might be a good time to take a break from all the political chat, and get to something non-controversial, like sports! .

The NBA draft is coming up, and, as in the last few years, there seems to be a premium on drafting high school players. This has also recently become an issue in the NFL. To me, the fact that so many high school players are being drafted, and drafted so high, is sheer lunacy. How many high school players ever manage a successful career in the NBA? Not that many--for every player drafted in high school playing productive minutes, there's 5 or 6 that never made it all. Not a good track record on which to waste a high draft pick. Those that support drafting these players point to people such as Kobe, T-Mac, and KG, and say its worth it because of their potential. They're ignoring another glaring fact--how many high players drafted out of high school, that become successful NBA players, do so for the team that originally drafted them? Looking at current NBA players, this is a list of 1--Kevin Garnett (we'll see about LeBron in a couple of years). So, basically anyone who drafts a high school player is betting on not just one fantasy, but two (first that they'll be successful at all, second that they'll be successful for them). This seems to me to be sheer folly, especially when there are, as is the case with Okafor this year, proven commodities who are a much better bet. So, this poses the following questions for debate:

Are executives who draft high school players wasting their draft pick?

Why are teams so anxious to pick unproven talent, who if they ever do pan out will likely be superstars somewhere else, over much safer picks such as Okafor?

Will this trend carry over to the NFL, leaving baseball and hockey as the only sane sports in this regard?

What do these tendencies say about us as a society (ie, tendency to pick potential over proven commodity, fantasy over reality, media splash vs solid player, etc)?

I don't pay much attention to the NBA and a part of that may be this very reason. If I want to watch a bunch of high school kids play basketball, I can go to the local high school and watch them. I know there are a couple of rare talents that can make it into the NBA like LeBron and Kevin Garnett, but not many. I think that what has happened over the years to the NBA is the level of basic human maturity has suffered to the point where we have a bunch of spoiled baby-giants out on the court playing strictly for themselves - witness the Lakers this season.

It won't happen in the NFL though, they've fought the idea of drafting players out of high school successfully thus far and I think they'll continue to do that. As few high school players as there are who can make it in the NBA, I think there are even fewer who can do it in the NFL.

As a resident of Atlanta, the city with an NBA team with no players and no coach...

Are executives who draft high school players wasting their draft pick?

Nope. Executives who draft players with insufficient talent are wasting their draft pick. The executives who drafted Kobe and Kevin were not wasting their draft picks.

Why are teams so anxious to pick unproven talent, who if they ever do pan out will likely be superstars somewhere else, over much safer picks such as Okafor?

All rookies are unproven talent. The real question is why would they pick a kid who hasn't reached his full body weight and size and quickness? Because they're already talented and haven't reached their full body weight, size, quickness!

Will this trend carry over to the NFL, leaving baseball and hockey as the only sane sports in this regard?

Some college students are trying, but I really don't think that a high school kid has any chance against a pro player and I think the NFL executives are less likely to chase that kind of unproven talent, simply because they don't have more than a year or so to wait for talent to develop.

Really, this question is all about the structure of contracts. In the NBA, all contracts are guaranteed until the end. In the NFL, when you're cut, your contract ends. Until the NBA adopts a different contract strategy (which is hard when you only have 12 players on a team), the ability to develop a player for up to 3 years will be important.

What do these tendencies say about us as a society (ie, tendency to pick potential over proven commodity, fantasy over reality, media splash vs solid player, etc)?

Society? What does society have to do with NBA executives? The number of people reading "People" magazine is more indicative of our society than how NBA executives draft rookies.

No, I don't think so. Why should a kid who is unprepared for the rigors of college life be forced to go that route? What should happen is that any draft pick that hasn't attended college automatically be sent to the NBA's developmental league. Yes, fans would have been denied a chance to see LeBron James this year, but for every one phenom like him there are other high school players that were drafted high and were glued to the bench all season because they weren't ready to contribute.

Teams aren't anxious to gamble on "unproven picks" but what is their option? So few players are staying for the whole four years in college and leaving early or bypassing college ball entirely that NBA general managers have no choice but to roll the dice. Emeke Okafor (I work with his cousin) is the tallest dwarf in this year diminished draft, but he's hardly a "safer pick." Okafor has a history of back problems and in the grueling endurance test that is the 82-game NBA regular season can he hold up over the whole year?

Eventually the NFL will lose to someone who has a better case than Maurice Clarett. It's not a matter of "if" but when. Baseball's problem is that it is falling in popularity with young black athletes who opt instead for baseball and hockey. To some extent the influx of Latino and Asian ballplayers have helped broaded baseball's base of fan support and talent, but will it continue to draw black and white athletes. Hockey? If the NHL goes on strike next season as seems likely it will be deader than disco.

I think what this trend shows is that two cliches are true: youth must be served and standards fall.

Agree with the overall sentiment, and with KG as an example, but don't forget that Kobe was drafted by.....Charlotte. His was a bit of a different case (traded shortly after the draft)--but so many of these picks don't end up playing for the team that picked 'em. So, even if you guess right and get that one kid that has all the talent, basically all you're doing is developing him for someone else. No payoff in that. I think it's all a big case of executive hubris--first they think they know for sure who the right pick is, then they assume they can beat all the odds and keep that person on their team--and we're not even going into the whole question of the attitude problems some of these high school stars have.

NT:


True--the rise in high school picks definitely coincides with the rash of early entry candidates from the college ranks--leaving slim pickings of 'proven' talent. I also agree with Okafor's injuries--probably not the best example of a can't miss senior. The basic talk doesn't seem to center on that aspect though--most of what you hear is that he is almost certain to be good, while the 'youngsters' have a chance to be great. Personally, you give me a group of good players, and I'll take that up against a team with one or two great players any day (note the recent NBA championships).



Absolutely. For those against the right of these people to be chosen, I always like to present the following scenario--suppose you had a child who was so intellectually or artistically talented that a major firm offered them millions of dollars to come work for them right away. He'd be an idiot to turn it down, right? Should anyone have the right to tell him (or her ) he/she can't take that job? I've never spoken to anyone who thinks that right should be taken away. What's the difference just because someone is athletically gifted? I don't see it....
It's like just because its sports we have to suddenly apply different rules than anywhere else? why?