Full Version: The Big Bounce
QUOTE(Sleeper @ Sep 30 2004, 02:59 PM)
Would you like to revise this statement?:
QUOTE
the polls out this week so far are put the race back where it should be - nearly a statistical dead heat and very close.
Nope, I'm perfectly fine with my statement Sleeper. All you have done is cite more national polls which don't really tell you anything.
If you want to believe the polls and think this race is going to be a blow out, that is perfectly fine with me - in fact why don't you not bother voting if you are so sure
Play the poll game all you want instead of actually worrying about the issues, doesn't bother me a bit. But when the election results come in and your candidate doesn't win you can expect a reminder of your overconfidence.
This race will likely be as close or closer than the one in 2000, to suggest otherwise is being intellectually dishonest about the situation.
Maybe we should look at what happened prior to the 2000 presidental election
http://www.ajc.com/opinion/content/opinion...\UcTYWYWZV
At one extreme, the prestigious Gallup Poll has Bush leading Kerry by 55 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. At the other extreme, a Democracy Corps Poll, released just a few days later, shows the two candidates tied at 49 percent. Which poll should voters believe?
On Oct. 25, 2000, less than two weeks before the presidential election, Democracy Corps released a national poll showing Al Gore leading George W. Bush by 2 percentage points. On the same day, Gallup's national tracking poll showed Bush leading Gore by 7 percentage points. One day later, the Gallup tracking poll had Bush up by an incredible 13 percentage points.
Score one for Democracy Corps. OK, you're probably thinking, maybe Gallup just had a bad day (or two or three). But six days later, on Oct. 31, Democracy Corps released its final pre-election poll showing a tie in the presidential race.
In its final pre-election poll, Gallup did have Bush's lead down to only 2 points — still not as good as the Democracy Corps poll released almost a week earlier
So on Oct 26, Gallup poll has Bush by an incredible 13 percentage points and then a week or so later it was down to 2 points. Did Bush improve that much or was Gallup out of the loop?
I for one don't have that much confidence in Gallup.
http://www.ajc.com/opinion/content/opinion...\UcTYWYWZV
QUOTE
At one extreme, the prestigious Gallup Poll has Bush leading Kerry by 55 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. At the other extreme, a Democracy Corps Poll, released just a few days later, shows the two candidates tied at 49 percent. Which poll should voters believe?
On Oct. 25, 2000, less than two weeks before the presidential election, Democracy Corps released a national poll showing Al Gore leading George W. Bush by 2 percentage points. On the same day, Gallup's national tracking poll showed Bush leading Gore by 7 percentage points. One day later, the Gallup tracking poll had Bush up by an incredible 13 percentage points.
Score one for Democracy Corps. OK, you're probably thinking, maybe Gallup just had a bad day (or two or three). But six days later, on Oct. 31, Democracy Corps released its final pre-election poll showing a tie in the presidential race.
In its final pre-election poll, Gallup did have Bush's lead down to only 2 points — still not as good as the Democracy Corps poll released almost a week earlier
So on Oct 26, Gallup poll has Bush by an incredible 13 percentage points and then a week or so later it was down to 2 points. Did Bush improve that much or was Gallup out of the loop?
I for one don't have that much confidence in Gallup.
QUOTE(popeye47 @ Sep 30 2004, 05:59 PM)
I for one don't have that much confidence in Gallup.
That is why I listed 5 other polls besides Gallup.
Would you care to comment on them as well?
QUOTE(Sleeper @ Sep 30 2004, 07:13 PM)
QUOTE(popeye47 @ Sep 30 2004, 05:59 PM)
I for one don't have that much confidence in Gallup.
That is why I listed 5 other polls besides Gallup.
Would you care to comment on them as well?
No, but I will put my confidence and money on the Democracy Corps Poll.
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