Here's the story:

Blast, Mushroom Cloud Reported in N. Korea

To be debated:

1. Do you think this was the test of a nuclear weapon?

I tend to think so. The timing makes me suspicious:





2. How does this change things in that part of the world?

I don't really know, but it scares me.

1)
Lord, I hope not...
2)
Get ready for war Boys! Though maybe not before re-election. Should it prove to be a nuclear test I doubt that it will go over without major coverage. North Korea huh... thats a big army.

I think an anniversary nuclear test in North Korea is a distinct possibility, given Kim Jong Il's personality. If that proves to be true then it may become a turning point in the pre-election buildup. Bush will no doubt use this to show the credibility of his concerns over national security. Indeed, given most people's attitude towards nuclear weapons, this may be the most important single event prior to the election. Though the thought of a North Korean nuclear test is by no means a joyful one, a second term of George Bush makes it seem quite harmless.

1. Do you think this was the test of a nuclear weapon?



Somehow, I don't think so. As crazy as jammy man Kim is, I don't think he's wacked off enough to do an above ground test in his own country. It doesn't require a nuclear explosion to set off a mushroom cloud, a large conventional explosion will do that as well and given the information in the article cited, I'd tend to think it was more along the lines of some sort of an accident at a missle base that caused the whole thing.




Oh please......

to do an above ground test in his own country.

Where else can he test them? He has no other place that I know of.
GWB and/or Kerry know that sending troops into North Korea would be a terrible mistake.
If their troops cross the border into South Korea, it would be a blood bath of the type not seen since WW1, or our own Civil War.
If we have to fight them, it would be cruise missiles and bombs from stealth bombers taking out as much of their military infrastructure as possible.
Then follow that up with food drops? In a country where mass starvation is a recent memory, it might be just the thing to pacify the peasantry.

If it was nuclear, it most definitely changes things in that part of the world. We will know soon enough as atmospheric samples will be taken by Kim's neighbors to determine just what it was.

I think it could be an accident. Here's what Reuters has to say

It may be a ploy to raise the stakes by using conventional explosives to create the illusion of a nuclear capability. How else is North Korea going to be taken seriously unless they demonstrate a nuclear capability?

If they do not have such a capability then their best bet is to try to convince the USA that they do have.

Though, I agree that it is more likely to be another accident.

1. Do you think this was the test of a nuclear weapon?

I'll take Colin Powell's word for it:

2. How does this change things in that part of the world?

It doesn't.

1. Do you think this was the test of a nuclear weapon?

The USG obviously doesn't have all the facts yet or they would have come out with a more confident, and official, statement. I think it makes sense to wait for an official statement from the White House before we make judgements on whether or not is was a nuclear weapon. However, as I mentioned before, I think it's very possible that North Korea would conduct above-ground testing, especially on an important anniversary.

2. How does this change things in that part of the world?

With the exception of China, no one in that part of the world has the means to directly react to a nuclear test. I don't think that part of the world would change at all. The only possible forceful reaction would be from the US. Not even Bush wants to get into a nuclear standoff with Kim Jong Il, so I think the repurcussions will be purely political.

Apparently it was neither an accident nor a nuclear test - they have now said that it was the planned demolition of a mountain as part of a hydro-electric project. link

The British government minister who managed to wheedle this admission out of them remains sceptical, having asked for access to go and inspect the site.

I doubt he'll get access. Kim Jong will claim that all the inspectors are spys and call it an act of war. They don't call it the "Secret State" for nothing.

I hope not. I don't think it was a nuke. Just because a mushroom cloud formed doesn't mean that there was a nuke.
http://www.fact-index.com/m/mu/mushroom_cloud.html

I do find it quite interesting though that according to top US officials, we don't really know. I mean come on, we have satillites that can read license plate numbers, and we can't tell if a nuke was tested, we're just, not quite sure?

I don't really think it is going to change things that much. I mean sure they will have nucleur capability, but how much? The US has so many nukes its scary. No one not even Kim Jong is that stupid. He might try and use it as leverage, but its kind of like the difference in trying to pry a manhole of with a butter knife, compared to a crobar. We also have defense systems that are capable of shooting down missles. We need to remember that they have a long way to fly all the way from North Korea, and we don't even know wheter or not the bombs exist, let alone long range ones.

1. Do you think this was the test of a nuclear weapon?

I'd say no, but I'm still waiting for more confirmation.

2. How does this change things in that part of the world?

It doesn't really change anything. Whether or not this was a nuclear weapon test, we must accept that it will happen at some point. Being a part of the nuclear club gets you a key to the executive washroom.

Do you think this was the test of a nuclear weapon?

I don’t know, but I am suspicious of what it really was, because since when has North Korea felt compelled to explain any of their actions (truthfully, anyway)? The fact that the North Korean government has issued an official story troubles me. Il’s government is so secretive, the fact that they are so adamant about this not being a nuclear test and that anyone suggesting otherwise is a liar…well, it makes me wonder what they’re up to.


And when the current administration comes up with all kinds of alternative explanations for the explosion (anything but nuclear), my suspicion level ratchets that much higher. At one point, Rice said it was possibly a “forest fire” . Colin Powell explained it this way:


How does this change things in that part of the world?

This is only my opinion, but I don’t believe it changes anything; North Korea is just as dangerous as it has always been, possibly more so since Bush’s invasion of Iraq. I have always believed that North Korea, with its whack job leader is the most dangerous threat in the world today.

As for the citizens of North Korea, they have never been of great importance to Il except as a means to an end.

Edited to remove redundant redundancy

I'm inclined to think it's not a nuclear weapons test for the simple reason that North Korea hasn't claimed it to be. Kim's government survives on blackmail (i.e. getting 500,000 tons of oil annually in return for ceasing their nuclear weapons program, a pledge they've since broken, and 250,000 tons of food and $10 million in medical supplies for the return of kidnapped Japanese nationals.) There's no way the hermit kingdom would keep a threat like this secret.

I'm also inclined not to believe this is a nuclear test for two reasons:

(1) it was close to the Chinese border. That's one backyard you don't want to wizz in, y'know? If they were trying to make a statement, they would do it off the coast of South Korea underwater.

(2) I also doubt that it was a planned explosion, just because they bothered to explain anything at all. Even if you had to drag an answer out of them, the first answer wouldn't necessarily be the right one.

I'm more inclined to think that it was yet another accident with their underground missle bunkers. Of course, like the rest of us, I may be wrong.

What annoys me, though, is that -- with all our technology and "eyes in the sky" -- that the US government hasn't come up with a decent explanation. That's the only part that scares me here, since the lack of a good explanation is open to lots of spin.

This was not a nuclear test.

Firstly, it was a ground detonation, or at best only slightly sub-surface, leaving a clear shock crater on the surface. Nobody tests ground detonations since China and Russia stopped them decades ago, they give the least accurate measurement results and give of the most radioactive materiels. If NK ever DOERS test a nuke, it will be either underwater (Israel, France and South Africa) Or in the bottom of some mineshaft (India and pakistan)

Secondly, it was a test near semi-fertile ground, right near the Chinese border, as amf said, possibly one of the most retarded places to test a weapon.

Thirdly, and most importantly, if it were a surface or near sub-surface test, the US would knoe about it instantly. Their sattelites detect launch flashes and explosions, but also gamma bursts created by a nuke. If it were nuclear, the Us would know about it pretty much instantly.

Lastly, if NK held a test, in particular in such an obvious manner and location, then they would be the first to claim it. Given there seems to have been no particular attempt at secrecy or concealment, it was obviously not meant as a 'secret' test of anything. If it were meant as a public test, then they would have gone public.

I agree because China is the last country that wants to see a nuclear active North Korea and Kim Jong doesn't want to tick off China by test-firing a nuke

I'm going to go out on a limb here....

The explosion was tied to North Korea's nuclear weapons program.

North Korea no longer has a nuclear weapons program.

North Korea is not about to admit it no longer has the program.

North Korea is not about to admit why they no longer have the program.

Powell knows nothing about why NK no longer has a program, 'cause he had no need to know.

quite correct. anyone that watched the opening bombins in iraq would have seen multiple mushroom shaped clouds. one such cloud can be seen here./URL]

QUOTE

no, I do not. I have a few reasons for this. first and foremost colin powell has said it was not a nuke. as little as I trust the government, I don't get the impression they would lie about it NOT being a nuke. second, from what I've read, there is no report of the distinctive double flash of light that comes only from a nuke. third, if it WERE a nuke, the radiation could and would be detected on the wind.



I don't think it does, as this was most likely a major accident.



how about below ground, like the us did for several decades? it is much much harder to detect an underground nuke test then an open air one.

1. Do you think this was the test of a nuclear weapon?

I would like to know what it was. When I started college 40 years ago, I was told that the radioactive signature of a nuclear explosion was well known, and easily detected. Towards the end of my education, I was told that the U.S. now knows that Japanese scientists in 1945 were able to analyze the aftermath of the bombs at Hiroshima and Nagasaki and determine that one was Uranium based and the other was Plutonium based.

2. How does this change things in that part of the world?

It gives me the impression that this White House is so secretive that they no longer care if deniability is plausible. One "explanation" I heard on the telly was, "It may have been a forest fire."

Whether we will hear the truth of what happened in North Korea by November 1 or only after November 2 will likely depend on "W"s standing in the polls. If "W" thinks that we need to attack N. Korea in order to get elected, we will likely be told that scientists have confirmed it was a nuclear device. After all, Secretary of State Colin Powell was willing to lose all credibility to help lead us to war in Iraq, so why should we believe him when he tells us:

If elected, George W. Bush has already decided that his legacy is that of a "war president," so why would he avoid putting together a case to declare war again on North Korea?