QUOTE(Hobbes @ Oct 8 2004, 08:34 AM)
QUOTE(logophage @ Oct 8 2004, 12:41 AM)
I think most of us agree that Saddam out of power is a good thing. The question remains: were the benefits worth the costs? Ultimately, this is what it boils down to. Clearly, he was a bad guy and had the intention of rebuilding a WMD program. He also gave money to the families of suicide bombers. He ordered the mass murder if not genocide of probably 1000s of his people. He was not associated with 9/11. He had neither WMD nor a WMD program. He was not an imminent threat. The insurgency in post-Saddam Iraq is growing and US support is shrinking. This is how it is. Weigh and judge accordingly.
Ahh, but he was
associated with 9-11, in a variety of ways. All indirect, but associated nonetheless. Because of this, he was indeed an imminent threat.
Umm...how? The only evidence I've ever read on this is tenuously circumstantial. As with any circumstantial evidence, it can be interpreted in many ways. Given the US intelligence community's poor performance with predicting Saddam's WMD program, I'd have to say I consider those interpretations highly suspect. Unless you can show me direct, unambiguous evidence, then I humbly suggest you're being entirely too credulous. If association with 9/11 is how you judge the imminence of threat, then I'd suggest you look to other nations for that dubious title, in particular Saudi Arabia where most of the 9/11 terrorists originated for which there does seem to be direct, unambiguous evidence. All I ask is you follow the evidence and not the ideology.
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QUOTE(logophage @ Oct 8 2004, 12:41 AM)
So, your impatience with the UN weapons inspectors does not carry over to your patience with the process of "democratizing" Iraq. I also find the "honey pot" theory of terrorism in Iraq to be, how shall I say it, unfounded. Just because there is an insurgency in Iraq and just because some of those insurgents are terrorists does not mean that terrorists are not actively working elsewhere in the world. To believe otherwise is surely naive. It's like waving your left hand with a "look over here" only to be knocked out with a right hook.
No, my impatience with weapons inspectors is due to the fact that all they offered was a delay to a solution to the real problem--Saddam's regime. As to the 'honey-pot' theory, I don't put a lot of stock into it either---but it is a solid response to the oft-offered criticism that the invasion has sprung up all these terrorists in Iraq.
Weapons inspectors were never going to "solve' Saddam's regime. They were there to prevent WMD and to verify 1441 compliance. Again, I can sympathize with your position. You wanted Saddam out of there and believed that it was justified no matter what. In that light, WMD and association with 9/11 must be immaterial to your position. If that is so, I suppose I don't understand why you use those points as part of your justification for invasion. Whether or not they were true, you would have advocated invasion. As such, I would suggest you remove them from your list of justifications. How do your sums work then?
As for the "terrorists have sprung up in Iraq" theory, in another thread this was discussed at great length. From what I've read, most the insurgency is composed of resistance fighters and/or opportunists and not terrorists. But, even if they were mostly terrorists, isn't it conceivable that new terrorists have been created? Or are you promulgating a "conservation of terrorists" theory, that there are a fixed number of terrorists in the world so one cropping up Iraq means one fewer elsewhere?
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Again, justification vs. actual reasons.
I have absolutely no idea what you mean here. What's the difference between justification and "actual reason"? If you believe there is a difference , then please re-read all my posts and mentally replace the term "justification" with "actual reason".
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QUOTE(logophage @ Oct 8 2004, 12:41 AM)
The "real" situation according to the report was the Saddam neither had WMD nor a WMD program. He may have desired to have one. Desire != real. What you want to debate is the perception of what was real at the time. Well, the conventional wisdom was that he had WMD, but there was never any direct, corroborative evidence. It was circumstantial and ambiguous. The UN weapons inspectors offered a mechanism to determine this with some high level of probability. They just couldn't do so in three months; they needed something like a year. Instead, the US entered an expensive and controversial war by invading and occupying Iraq. It was unnecessary. Impatience won over prudence.
In the post 9-11 world, perception and threat is really all that is necessary to provoke action. Proof would likely come some months after the radiation cloud had dissipated, or the mass graves had been covered. That is not an allowable situation.
Eh? This is a
red herring as well as an
appeal to fear fallacy. What we're debating is that the weapons inspectors were right. They were being successful. The implications of invading Iraq when there were no WMD will have repercussions in the coming years. One thing is for sure. Any country which is contemplating WMD will likely accelerate their program since they know they'll get invaded just because they are "thinking about it". WMD is the only real mechanism to prevent such an attack. I can think of two countries right now.
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QUOTE(logophage)
Other means of resolving the issues did exist. In particular, the weapons inspections were working. If now you're saying the primary reason to invade Iraq was to rid Iraq of Saddam, then why is the US still there? That mission was accomplished last year. I'm not going to convince you that your position on Iraq is wrong and you're not going to convince me. However, all I'm asking is for you to consider that the WMD argument for invasion is, if not unjustified, at least unpersuasive. If the WMD argument were removed from the cumulative sum, does the sum still add up to something "almost irrefutable" in your mind.
No, inspections were
not working, nor could they ever hope to. The problem was Saddam's regime, not WMD. Consider the following scenario. We allow inspections, and they come back and report nothing found. What then? Do we lift the sanctions and remove the troop containment? This report clearly states this was what Saddam desired, and that he had everything in place to start up his nuclear WMD program then. So, nothing was solved, just delayed. Or, knowing this would be the case, we continue with the sanctions. Again, nothing solved. So, as I have said, inspectors offered no hope at all of resolving the problem--only delaying the resolution.
The first thing to consider is that 1441 would have remained in force regardless. Weapons inspectors would have still canvassed Iraq for WMD program with or without sanctions. They would not have been removed. Weapons inspections are an ongoing, unending process. The second thing to consider is that even if sanctions were lifted, the US would have still "contained" Iraq with overflights and so on.
Again, you are arguing that Saddam is bad and should be taken out whether or not he had WMD. Just admit that and then we can have a debate

. Weapons inspectors could not "solve" Saddam's despotism. They could "solve" the WMD issue.
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As to the WMD argument, yes, I will agree it has its issues. None of the post-action reports change the fact that the threat existed, however. I would rather the administration had laid out all its reasons from the outset. Personally, I think 12 years of non-compliance and non-cooperation with UN resolutions was sufficient, with the WMD issue then just providing the final impetus. But this is a discussion about how to justify the action--I have always been more concerned with what the real reasons were, and whether there were other methods of resolving them.
First, I think you're being a bit disingenuous about the usage of "threat". Only in abstract terms at some point in the hypothetical future would an unfettered Saddam have ever become a "threat". Well, Saddam would not have been unfettered. The report shows that the 12 years of containment and inspections had actually produced the most desire result: no WMD, no WMD program. There is no reason to believe that continued containment and weapons inspections would not have maintained this fact. To suggest otherwise is to blatantly ignore the evidence.
Second, I am confused over your differentiation between "justification" and "real reason". What does this mean? To justify a position is to use evidence and logical argument to make a case. I feel like we've entered a Monty Python sketch.