Full Version: Ukraine is on the threshold of a civil conflict
Ukranians are a currently divided people. Since the presidential elections last weekend, the country has seen many demonstrations being held. The country is on the verge of a major crisis.
Here is a helpful link to give you insight to the problem : Kuchma Calls for Talks on Ukraine's Crisis
Questions :
1. Is there an actual risk of open civil war?
2. What is at stake in the opposition between Russia and the US and/or Russia and the EU?
3. How do you see the future of this region in ten years?
4. How is this going to affect the democratization of the whole region?
Here is a helpful link to give you insight to the problem : Kuchma Calls for Talks on Ukraine's Crisis
Questions :
1. Is there an actual risk of open civil war?
2. What is at stake in the opposition between Russia and the US and/or Russia and the EU?
3. How do you see the future of this region in ten years?
4. How is this going to affect the democratization of the whole region?
QUOTE
2. What is at stake in the opposition between Russia and the US and/or Russia and the EU?
The only portion that interested me was the following statement from the US:
QUOTE
The startling development in the three-day standoff came as the Bush administration urged the Ukrainian government not to certify results of Sunday's runoff election results that showed Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, backed by Kuchma, defeating the Western-leaning Viktor Yushchenko.
"The United States is deeply concerned by extensive and credible indications of fraud committed in the Ukrainian presidential election," White House spokeswoman Claire Buchan said.
And also this statement:
QUOTE
The election commission's announcement that Yanukovych was ahead of Yushchenko has galvanized anger among many of Ukraine's 48 million people. Official results, with more than 99.48 percent of precincts counted, showed Yanukovych leading with 49.39 percent to his challenger's 46.71 percent. But several exit polls had found Yushchenko to be the winner.
So the US is saying that fraud may have been committed by the party in POWER.
Bush Adminstration is backing the challenger,Yuschenko.
One of the major seasons that the people of Ukraine are so incensed is because of the following from the website quoted in the original post: BUT SEVERAL EXIT POLLS HAD FOUND YUSHCHENKO TO BE THE WINNER.
Holy Toledo where have I seen that before..
Oh that was in the United States of Americas Presidental election of 2004. Gosh that couldn't be anything to that could there??
I bet thos Exit Polls in Ukraine are wrong too.
Popeye, this thread is not about the U.S. elections and Haryok has given us some very specific questions to debate:
1. Is there an actual risk of open civil war?
2. What is at stake in the opposition between Russia and the US and/or Russia and the EU?
3. How do you see the future of this region in ten years?
4. How is this going to affect the democratization of the whole region?
Please do not derail this thread
1. Is there an actual risk of open civil war?
2. What is at stake in the opposition between Russia and the US and/or Russia and the EU?
3. How do you see the future of this region in ten years?
4. How is this going to affect the democratization of the whole region?
Please do not derail this thread
This is something I am going to follow very closely! THe EU, regardless of its faults, promotes liberal democracy and human rights - and is one of the major forces in the world that promotes these values and actively persuades countries to adopt them. I would much rather see Ukraine moving towards EU membership than I would see it be a satellite of Russia - which is clearly moving away from democracy and back towards Cold War style power politics.
1. Is there an actual risk of open civil war?
The recent 'rose revolution' in Georgia (the East European republic) suggests that it can be avoided simply by using common sense. Neither Russia or the West want to see a civil war, (obviously the Ukrainians do not). The EU will do nothing to promote a civil war, whereas Vladimir Putin might, if he felt that it would increase Russia's sway over the Ukraine. (The only way Russia is ever going to be a credible world power again is by controlling the Ukraine).
2. What is at stake in the opposition between Russia and the US and/or Russia and the EU?
I have no idea .... whilst Russia continues along it's current path (i.e removing democratic rights and dominating its neighbours) - life is going to be very miserable for a large number of people.
However, should the Ukraine join the EU, then that would show the people of Russia the gains that a liberal democracy can bring. (I am very much an EU expansionist. I believe it could work very well as a widespread union of democracies with freedom of movement and trade across all the borders). Then one day we might even persuade Russia to join (if Turkey can join, then I don't see why Russia couldn't - one day).
3. How do you see the future of this region in ten years?
Probably all within the EU, with Russia either a democracy, or moving back towards it. Democratic liberal governments are stabler and richer than all the alternatives, so I think sooner or later most countries will end up that way. I just hope it is sooner.
4. How is this going to affect the democratization of the whole region?
If the challenger Yushchenko wins, then Ukraine will move towards joining the EU - which means implementing democractic and economic reforms, which for all the other countries to have joined, has generally greatly raised living standards (after an initial slump). If Yanukovych wins then Ukraine will intensify its links with Russia and carry on with a very statist economy (and Putin will in effect control the Ukrainian government). That would set back democratization, as it would encourage Russia to be more domineering towards the 'satellite' countries around it.
I am painting a very black and white picture here, but I think that given a choice between being part of the EU or being a junior partner in a Russian hegemony, the EU wins hands-down.
1. Is there an actual risk of open civil war?
The recent 'rose revolution' in Georgia (the East European republic) suggests that it can be avoided simply by using common sense. Neither Russia or the West want to see a civil war, (obviously the Ukrainians do not). The EU will do nothing to promote a civil war, whereas Vladimir Putin might, if he felt that it would increase Russia's sway over the Ukraine. (The only way Russia is ever going to be a credible world power again is by controlling the Ukraine).
2. What is at stake in the opposition between Russia and the US and/or Russia and the EU?
I have no idea .... whilst Russia continues along it's current path (i.e removing democratic rights and dominating its neighbours) - life is going to be very miserable for a large number of people.
However, should the Ukraine join the EU, then that would show the people of Russia the gains that a liberal democracy can bring. (I am very much an EU expansionist. I believe it could work very well as a widespread union of democracies with freedom of movement and trade across all the borders). Then one day we might even persuade Russia to join (if Turkey can join, then I don't see why Russia couldn't - one day).
3. How do you see the future of this region in ten years?
Probably all within the EU, with Russia either a democracy, or moving back towards it. Democratic liberal governments are stabler and richer than all the alternatives, so I think sooner or later most countries will end up that way. I just hope it is sooner.
4. How is this going to affect the democratization of the whole region?
If the challenger Yushchenko wins, then Ukraine will move towards joining the EU - which means implementing democractic and economic reforms, which for all the other countries to have joined, has generally greatly raised living standards (after an initial slump). If Yanukovych wins then Ukraine will intensify its links with Russia and carry on with a very statist economy (and Putin will in effect control the Ukrainian government). That would set back democratization, as it would encourage Russia to be more domineering towards the 'satellite' countries around it.
I am painting a very black and white picture here, but I think that given a choice between being part of the EU or being a junior partner in a Russian hegemony, the EU wins hands-down.
QUOTE(Ptarmigan @ Nov 24 2004, 10:42 AM)
I am painting a very black and white picture here, but I think that given a choice between being part of the EU or being a junior partner in a Russian hegemony, the EU wins hands-down.
When you look at the location of Ukraine, you understand better the nature of the "rivalry" between the EU and Russia as the country is right on the borderline! And it explains a lot about what's going on too. Therefore, I don't think your vision is black-an-white at all, Ptarmigan.
The representative of the EU foreign policy, Javier Solana, came today with the president of Poland to help the different factions to come to a truce. The result was effective, as an actual meeting took place and negociations have begun. In return, Russia's foreign minister declared than messing with Ukraine internal affairs was unbearable. Maybe he meant to say... Russia?
This brings me to further reflections.
1. Poland and Lettonia used to be behind the Iron curtain until the early 90's. The regimes were slaves to Russia's will. Now that they are part of the EU, they don't fear Russia anymore and they're more than happy to help their neighbor Ukraine. That's a good turn of the tables, if you ask me!
2. The EU will grow bigger in 2007, with the addition of Bulgaria and Romania into its fold. Later, the possibility of including Turkey will only make us closer to Russia and its "satellite" republics.
Do you foresee a long term rivalry between Russia and the EU for influence over the "satellite" republics?
Is it sensible to think that this rivalry can be turned into an efficient partnership?
Could Russia ever become part of the EU?
Horyok - you may want to start a new debate for those questions. We should stick to the originals for this thread.
1. Is there an actual risk of open civil war?
2. What is at stake in the opposition between Russia and the US and/or Russia and the EU?
3. How do you see the future of this region in ten years?
4. How is this going to affect the democratization of the whole region?
1. Is there an actual risk of open civil war?
2. What is at stake in the opposition between Russia and the US and/or Russia and the EU?
3. How do you see the future of this region in ten years?
4. How is this going to affect the democratization of the whole region?
1. Is there an actual risk of open civil war?
Yes. This has consistently been the case with all the ex Soviet satellite states. They've all had problems adjusting to democracy and there has been the risk of civil war in every single example, though some more than others of course. With luck, the Ukrainians will be able to avoid a war though. I don't think even the Russians will risk a war in the Ukraine since it would benefit no one.
...mind you, thats never stopped any one before.
2. What is at stake in the opposition between Russia and the US and/or Russia and the EU?
I'm not sure if I understand this question. With regards to the US and EU I'd say nothing much really unless it be counter to our willingess to curb the appetite of Russian ambition.
As Ptarmigan points out, the Russians might lose a lot of influence if the Ukraine turns to the EU, but even so, I don't think this will mean an end to Russia's international ambitions either. They'll probably keep meddling regardless of what happens in the next few weeks.
I think the only people who will really lose out are the Ukrainians themselves. Whats really at stake is their national unity and what they risk (other than a lot of people getting killed) is their nation simply stalling due to their lack of political stablility and social equilibrium.
3. How do you see the future of this region in ten years?
Hmm... A bit like where East Germany is now. On the way to prosperity perhaps, but miserably complaining that they still have far to go.
4. How is this going to affect the democratization of the whole region?
Unless war actually breaks out, then I don't think it will make any difference to any one else... well maybe the Russians.. they might or might not take note of what happens in Ukrania... though I'm not holding my breath for that.
Yes. This has consistently been the case with all the ex Soviet satellite states. They've all had problems adjusting to democracy and there has been the risk of civil war in every single example, though some more than others of course. With luck, the Ukrainians will be able to avoid a war though. I don't think even the Russians will risk a war in the Ukraine since it would benefit no one.
...mind you, thats never stopped any one before.
2. What is at stake in the opposition between Russia and the US and/or Russia and the EU?
I'm not sure if I understand this question. With regards to the US and EU I'd say nothing much really unless it be counter to our willingess to curb the appetite of Russian ambition.
As Ptarmigan points out, the Russians might lose a lot of influence if the Ukraine turns to the EU, but even so, I don't think this will mean an end to Russia's international ambitions either. They'll probably keep meddling regardless of what happens in the next few weeks.
I think the only people who will really lose out are the Ukrainians themselves. Whats really at stake is their national unity and what they risk (other than a lot of people getting killed) is their nation simply stalling due to their lack of political stablility and social equilibrium.
3. How do you see the future of this region in ten years?
Hmm... A bit like where East Germany is now. On the way to prosperity perhaps, but miserably complaining that they still have far to go.
4. How is this going to affect the democratization of the whole region?
Unless war actually breaks out, then I don't think it will make any difference to any one else... well maybe the Russians.. they might or might not take note of what happens in Ukrania... though I'm not holding my breath for that.
1. Is there an actual risk of open civil war?
Yes, very much so- I think this part is obvious.
2. What is at stake in the opposition between Russia and the US and/or Russia and the EU?
This one is hard to call- the Russians see American business is kind of a rich patsy (I know, I have heard and seen this first hand, I let my Russian family do the talking when I am there doing business) - whereas the EU thier "real" markets- I really think they don't care too much of what the US says, and feel they we can be easily manipulated by oil and such in that region- whereas, once again, they are much more cautious in dealing with the EU.
3. How do you see the future of this region in ten years?
WEll, this is a tough one- there is a definate war of culture going on in that whole region of security vs freedom. The basic mind set of that culture is that security is paramount and freedom secondary. You can see this in Putin's uncontested power grab, and the Ukraine is culturally almost the same, and in fact, Russia started in Kiev, not Moscow! So this will have to play itself out- my gut feeling is that the security will win over the freedom for the short term. Most folks are doing much worse since "the wall fell" and are not too generous towards western values and ways of doing things, at least in the short term.
4. How is this going to affect the democratization of the whole region?
Another tough one to call- in the last 5 years I have seen a pull AWAY from the "democratization" and BACK to authoritarianism- only time will tell if the pendulum swings back again.
Yes, very much so- I think this part is obvious.
2. What is at stake in the opposition between Russia and the US and/or Russia and the EU?
This one is hard to call- the Russians see American business is kind of a rich patsy (I know, I have heard and seen this first hand, I let my Russian family do the talking when I am there doing business) - whereas the EU thier "real" markets- I really think they don't care too much of what the US says, and feel they we can be easily manipulated by oil and such in that region- whereas, once again, they are much more cautious in dealing with the EU.
3. How do you see the future of this region in ten years?
WEll, this is a tough one- there is a definate war of culture going on in that whole region of security vs freedom. The basic mind set of that culture is that security is paramount and freedom secondary. You can see this in Putin's uncontested power grab, and the Ukraine is culturally almost the same, and in fact, Russia started in Kiev, not Moscow! So this will have to play itself out- my gut feeling is that the security will win over the freedom for the short term. Most folks are doing much worse since "the wall fell" and are not too generous towards western values and ways of doing things, at least in the short term.
4. How is this going to affect the democratization of the whole region?
Another tough one to call- in the last 5 years I have seen a pull AWAY from the "democratization" and BACK to authoritarianism- only time will tell if the pendulum swings back again.
Response to add information :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml.../28/wukra28.xml
Of course this is from a EU media outlet so naturally it's slanted to favor Yushchenko. He's also picked up an "unknown" condition.
http://cnn.worldnews.printthis.clickabilit...&partnerID=2006
http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2004/WORLD/europe/1...chenko.afp..jpg
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml.../28/wukra28.xml
QUOTE
"They started to beat voters and election officials, trying to push through towards the ballot boxes," he told The Telegraph.
"People's faces were cut from blows to the head. There was blood all over."
The thugs - believed to be loyal to the pro-Russian presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovich from his stronghold, Donetsk - were repulsed only when locals pushed them back and a policeman fired warning shots.
...
"The officials were taking them out of the box and they couldn't understand why they were wet," she said.
"Then I saw they started to blacken and disintegrate as if they were burning. Two ballots were wrapped up into a tube with a yellow liquid inside. After a few moments they were completely eaten up."
In her polling station, 26 ballots were destroyed and had to be invalidated. Six other cases were recorded of ballots destroyed by acid.
The most common trick was "carousel" voting, in which busloads of Yanukovich supporters simply drove from one polling station to another casting multiple false absentee ballots.
In another brazen fraud recorded by observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, voters were given pens filled with ink that disappeared, leaving ballots unmarked and invalid.
...
Diana Dutsyk, a member of Mr Yushchenko's campaign team, claimed that "dead souls" - late citizens' ballots used by imposters - were also used to augment his opponent's share of the vote.
And late last week Mr Yushchenko's headquarters released an audio recording in which senior members of Mr Yanukovich's campaign team were allegedly caught red-handed discussing how to fix the election result.
"People's faces were cut from blows to the head. There was blood all over."
The thugs - believed to be loyal to the pro-Russian presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovich from his stronghold, Donetsk - were repulsed only when locals pushed them back and a policeman fired warning shots.
...
"The officials were taking them out of the box and they couldn't understand why they were wet," she said.
"Then I saw they started to blacken and disintegrate as if they were burning. Two ballots were wrapped up into a tube with a yellow liquid inside. After a few moments they were completely eaten up."
In her polling station, 26 ballots were destroyed and had to be invalidated. Six other cases were recorded of ballots destroyed by acid.
The most common trick was "carousel" voting, in which busloads of Yanukovich supporters simply drove from one polling station to another casting multiple false absentee ballots.
In another brazen fraud recorded by observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, voters were given pens filled with ink that disappeared, leaving ballots unmarked and invalid.
...
Diana Dutsyk, a member of Mr Yushchenko's campaign team, claimed that "dead souls" - late citizens' ballots used by imposters - were also used to augment his opponent's share of the vote.
And late last week Mr Yushchenko's headquarters released an audio recording in which senior members of Mr Yanukovich's campaign team were allegedly caught red-handed discussing how to fix the election result.
Of course this is from a EU media outlet so naturally it's slanted to favor Yushchenko. He's also picked up an "unknown" condition.
http://cnn.worldnews.printthis.clickabilit...&partnerID=2006
http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2004/WORLD/europe/1...chenko.afp..jpg
QUOTE
Yushchenko accused the Ukrainian authorities of poisoning him. His detractors suggested he'd eaten some bad sushi.
It now appears to be solidifying into a western Ukraine (for the goverment) vs eastern Ukraine (for the opposition) line being drawn, with equal crowds of protestors and officials claiming fraud on the other side. As of today, on Russian television, both sides have stated that they will not accept an election where thier candidate does not win.
Could be civil war, too bad.
Could be civil war, too bad.
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