http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...raine_elections

This topic is an offspring of “Ukraine is on the threshold of a civil conflict”, where you can find earlier references of the discussion.

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When you look at the location of Ukraine, you understand better the nature of the "rivalry" between the EU and Russia as the country is right on the borderline! And it explains a lot about what's going on too. Therefore, I don't think your vision is black-an-white at all, Ptarmigan.

The representative of the EU foreign policy, Javier Solana, came today with the president of Poland to help the different factions to come to a truce. The result was effective, as an actual meeting took place and negociations have begun. In return, Russia's foreign minister declared than messing with Ukraine internal affairs was unbearable. Maybe he meant to say... Russia?

This brings me to further reflections.

- Poland and Lettonia used to be behind the Iron curtain until the early 90's. The regimes were slaves to Russia's will. Now that they are part of the EU, they don't fear Russia anymore and they're more than happy to help their neighbor Ukraine. That's a good turn of the tables, if you ask me!

- The EU will grow bigger in 2007, with the addition of Bulgaria and Romania into its fold. Later, the possibility of including Turkey will only make us closer to Russia and its "satellite" republics.

1. Do you foresee a long term rivalry between Russia and the EU for influence over the "satellite" republics?

2. Is it realistic to think that this rivalry can be turned into an efficient partnership?

3. Could Russia ever become part of the EU someday?

1. Do you foresee a long term rivalry between Russia and the EU for influence over the "satellite" republics?

No. Not really. What does Russia have to offer them?


2. Is it realistic to think that this rivalry can be turned into an efficient partnership?

Not for as long as the Russians maintain the illusion of strength they've held dear for so long. If the Russians ever grow out of their flawed 'might is right' mentality then I have no doubt they'll also join the union.

Some how I doubt they ever will though. I can't see the Russians ever getting their act together. They've been maudling about in political chaos and tyranny ever since the Rus settled there and Russia's history is one long catalogue of failure and cruelty. Just the last one hundred years alone illustrates how badly the Russians have managed their affairs.

It will take more than Vladimir Putin's Iron fist to extend the hand of true friendship to western European nations who remember well the expense and irritation of the Soviet menace that was centred in Moscow.


3. Could Russia ever become part of the EU someday?

Yes. But if Russia did join the EU, then it would tip the balance of power far more than any other event in the entire history of the union. The wealth and potential power of the Russian federation is immense and would need to be balanced by strong democratic forces within Russia.

I will never vote for any politician who advocates Russia, as that nation is today, joins the EU.
They're good people and they make fine writers, engineers and scientists, but they need to learn a few things about leadership, responsibility and respect for other people first.

1. Do you foresee a long term rivalry between Russia and the EU for influence over the "satellite" republics?

No, I see manuevers for economic gain and position- Russia very much wants to join the EU someday, or be it's senior trading partner at the least, IMO.

You have more of internal conflict right now of what the former Eastern bloc nations want to become rather than what the outside world wants them to become. It will probably be until all the old line generals are dead in Russia before we really start a European style economy there- and there are some reasons for that outside just power. There are a great many aging Russians that can not live on thier pensions, and this effects their young relatives as well. So without some societal support for those folks, the "Europeanization" (my word) of Russia will be slowed- but not stopped. Everytime I visit there it seems more German than Russian everytime LOL- though American music dominates, the French and German dominate in business items and practise. Every item in our flat there is German- from our coffee pot to our car!

2. Is it realistic to think that this rivalry can be turned into an efficient partnership?

Yes, see above. BTW Horyok- France is probably the most admired culture in Russia- they definately have no bad feelings for Germany or France, despite thier past wars LOL The easiest countrymen to get Visas to Russia are Germany and France. There are daily, twice a day and more flights of Lufstanza to "inner" large cities in Russia such as Kazan and Sammara. not exactly the stuff of rivalry, more of trade!

3. Could Russia ever become part of the EU someday?

I would say no- they will be thier own entity- thier cultural glue is the strongest I have ever seen in any country, ever. They, much like the US, have an idea of what "Russia" is, and will be trading partners, perhaps even business rivals, with the former Satellite Countries (which, BTW, with some historical arguments over borders, was a stalin thing with the imperialism, really, after Stalin, they were not very enthusiastic about growing thier country further, only pride made them hold what Stalin had seized. Russia is NOT an imperialistic society- in fact, a little xenophobic) but NOT part of another union.

on a side note about imperialism under stalin, he basically had to spread socialism to those countries because if he did not, he correctly assumed that the U.S. would make them satellite countries. it would have been foolish for him not to make them satellite countries because if not, the U.S. would have become even more popular.

to answer the questions,
1) I don't think there can be much competition. As said, the EU will only increase in power while I don't think the same can be said for Russia. There is very little semblance of democracy there and most democracies do not seem to trust them.
2) Some type of a partnership can exist between them, but I don't think the EU wants to get too close to Russia.
3) There would have to be a serious shift to democracy and human rights (i.e. standards of living) in Russia for it to join, at least IMO. I can't say how the EU feels, obviously Russia is a big territory with a lot of natural resources. If the EU needs that it is possible they will accept them. Otherwise I don't really know.