The administration's insistence on sticking to the January 30th deadline for elections in Iraq, and Bush's statement that its time for Iraqi's voices to be heard made me think about the nature of Democracy in Iraq. In the west, we think of elections as a choice between candidates & parties that represent different ideas and philosophies, and we may switch between them at different times, in fact thats what makes the whole thing work.

In Iraq, the parties are forming strictly down ethnic and tribal lines, and its difficult to see voters doing anything but voting for their own ethnic party. Its tough to envision a bunch of Shia saying "I think I'll vote Sunni this time". The end result of this seems to me to be just domination by the majority tribe, you may as well just take a census and decide that way. In any event, it seems unlikely that the Sunnis and Kurds will be happy living under permanant Shia rule.


Is what is happening in Iraq really Democracy?

Even if it meets the technical criteria, is it a good solution for Iraq or just a recipe for Civil war?

Force feeding democracy is UN-DEMOCRATIC, no matter what your leader says about it. Question authority.

In each city-state, political authority rested in a political assembly that practiced a primitive democracy.

In Iraq, the parties are forming strictly down ethnic and tribal lines, and its difficult to see voters doing anything but voting for their own ethnic party. Its tough to envision a bunch of Shia saying "I think I'll vote Sunni this time". The end result of this seems to me to be just domination by the majority tribe, you may as well just take a census and decide that way. In any event, it seems unlikely that the Sunnis and Kurds will be happy living under permanant Shia rule.

Article 52.

The design of the federal system in Iraq shall be established in such a way as to prevent the concentration of power in the federal government that allowed the continuation of decades of tyranny and oppression under the previous regime. This system shall encourage the exercise of local authority by local officials in every region and governorate, thereby creating a united Iraq in which every citizen actively participates in governmental affairs, secure in his rights and free of domination.

Article 53.

(A) The Kurdistan Regional Government is recognized as the official government of the territories that were administered by the that government on 19 March 2003 in the governorates of Dohuk, Arbil, Sulaimaniya, Kirkuk, Diyala and Neneveh. The term “Kurdistan Regional Government” shall refer to the Kurdistan National Assembly, the Kurdistan Council of Ministers, and the regional judicial authority in the Kurdistan region.

*snip*

c) Any group of no more than three governorates outside the Kurdistan region, with the exception of Baghdad and Kirkuk, shall have the right to form regions from amongst themselves. The mechanisms for forming such regions may be proposed by the Iraqi Interim Government, and shall be presented and considered by the elected National Assembly for enactment into law. In addition to being approved by the National Assembly, any legislation proposing the formation of a particular region must be approved in a referendum of the people of the relevant governorates.

(D) This Law shall guarantee the administrative, cultural, and political rights of the Turcomans, ChaldoAssyrians, and all other citizens.

Any group of no more than three governorates outside the Kurdistan region, with the exception of Baghdad and Kirkuk, shall have the right to form regions from amongst themselves. The mechanisms for forming such regions may be proposed by the Iraqi Interim Government, and shall be presented and considered by the elected National Assembly for enactment into law. In addition to being approved by the National Assembly, any legislation proposing the formation of a particular region must be approved in a referendum of the people of the relevant governorates.

The judicial branch of government is as set out in the Transitional Administrative Law (TAL). It includes a Federal Supreme Court, the highest court of the land, which has the authority to resolve constitutional disputes.
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The Transitional Administrative Law (TAL) is the supreme law of the land. The Iraqi Interim Government operates under the rule of law according to the TAL.
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The term “transitional period” shall refer to the period beginning on 30 June 2004 and lasting until the formation of an elected Iraqi government pursuant to a permanent constitution as set forth in this Law, which in any case shall be no later than 31 December 2005, unless the provisions of Article 61 are applied.

Article 3

This Law is the Supreme Law of the land and shall be binding in all parts of Iraq without exception. No amendment to this Law may be made except by a three-fourths majority of the members of the National Assembly and the unanimous approval of the Presidency Council.

For several reasons, including expediencey, inclusiveness, and simplicity, the UN and the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI) decided to make all of Iraq a single electoral district. This means that, unlike in the US where each state is guaranteed representation in Congress based on population, there is no guarantee that each of the Iraqi provinces will have representation. The ballot is the same in Basra (far south) as it is in Mosul (far north) and the Iraqis will have a choice of at least 156 political "entities."

Most of the political "entities" are political parties but some individuals have registered as political entities on their own. The parties have submitted lists of their "candidates" and the number of seats each party gets is based on a "threshhold" number of votes. If, for instance, all of the estimated 15 million eligible voters cast ballots, then the threshhold number is 54,454 votes (15 million dividied by the 275 seats in the National Assembly). If a party garners that many votes then the first candidate on their list wins a seat in the National Assembly.

Well things are moving along nicely right now. I keep seeing all these articles on CNN or in the earlybird saying the Iraqi elections are going to be postponed but, so far, we've seen nothing to that effect. We're still looking forward and preparing for 30 January. It is a very confusing process and that's becoming more apparent as the registration for candidates has proceeded. The whole process is different than what the Iraqis are used to but, despite some of the drawbacks, I think it is the best system they could hope for in such a short time. It took three years to prepare for the elections in Afghanistan and Iraq is doing it in about 20 months.

BAGHDAD, Iraq — Iraq's president, an influential Sunni Muslim (search), threw his support Wednesday behind holding the Jan. 30 election on time despite insurgent threats he said have paralyzed voter registration voter registration in some Sunni areas of the country.
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However, President Ghazi al-Yawer, who wields considerable influence among Sunni tribal figures, told reporters in Baghdad he opposed any delay.

"I personally think that there is a legal and a moral obligation to hold elections on the set date," he said. "Legally and morally, we have to abide by the date set for the elections in the country's administrative law" which mandates a ballot by the end of January.

"I won't say I am happy, but I am satisfied with the process," Carlos Valenzuela (search) told The Associated Press in an interview. "People tend to have these very unrealistic expectations about elections. ... They are not a panacea, but they seem to me at least at this moment the one way to go that would help the transitional process" in Iraq.

In Iraq, the parties are forming strictly down ethnic and tribal lines, and its difficult to see voters doing anything but voting for their own ethnic party. 

A rift has developed among the major Shiite political groups here, raising the prospect of fierce competition for votes among rival Shiite factions in the coming elections and possibly altering the religious and political alignment of the country's new national assembly.[...]
Ayatollah Sistani was reportedly trying to repair the rift through intermediaries as late as Monday evening. But the divisions over power sharing and other issues appeared to be so deep that it was "almost impossible" to reconcile the two sides, officials with the Shiite Council said.