QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Feb 17 2003, 06:03 PM)
Who is doing this predicting and why are they expecting a loss?
Bar and restaurant owners mostly. There were a few articles about it in the
Orlando Sentinel shortly after the referendum was passed last November. I'll see if I can find anything further on it. I should think the "why" was obvious. I'm just one person, but I dine out three or four times per week and go to a bar or club maybe once a week. I
only patronize establishments in which I can smoke. Once the full ban is in force, I can't imagine dining out more than once or twice a month (if that) - and I can't imagine having a drink without a cigarette
at all. Consequently, these establishments will be losing better than 90% of my patronage.
While I'd thought this might be more appropriate to a new thread, enough people have been bringing it up as an argument in favor of anti-smoking legislation that I should at least mention one
FACT. Almost all arguments regarding the dangers of second-hand smoke trace their "evidence" back to a 1993 study done by the EPA. This study was a meta-analysis of previous research, which can a be a very valuable way to statistically assess data. However, in the case of the EPA, the analysis has since been thoroughly discredited - in fact, the first six chapters of the study were ruled either non-truthful or sensationalized in their findings and methods
by a Federal Court - which ruled that, in essence, the EPA had deliberately skewed their results to match their hypothesis and eliminated all the evidence which contradicted their presumptions. Nevertheless, the anti-smoking lobby has continued to cite this fraudulent study as their primary source for the effects of environmental tobacco smoke.
A more recent study by the World Health Organization, which conducted its own research, found that the effects of second-hand smoke are negligible and, in some cases, may even be protective. The WHO itself initially refused to release their findings and when, after much lobbying by the British press, they
did release the results, there was a virtual media blackout of their findings. There's a lot of information on both studies
here and lots of information on the health impact to both smokers and non-smokers
here. Another study published by the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, which found that health risks due to second-hand smoke in the workplace and the home was not statistically significant among adults and that there was
no increased risk due to childhood exposure can be found
here (if you've got Acrobat Reader).
Argue that you don't like the smell of smoke, if you will (and join my campaign to outlaw the wearing of excessive perfume and cologne in public), but
please don't argue junk science. If there's to be further discussion of the
evidence - make that
lack of evidence - related to the harmful effects of environmental smoke, though, it should probably be relegated to a new thread...