Full Version: Dream Ticket for 2008?
The title and description are pretty self-explanatory, but I'll elaborate a little. It isn't too soon to think about the 2008 race, not with the length of campaigns we have now, and you can be sure the Dems are doing it. I'm curious what all y'all think.
1) Who are we likely to face on the Democratic ticket? Dick Morris thinks Hillary Clinton is probably going to be the nominee, and he thinks Condi Rice is the Republican most likely to beat her. Worse, he thinks Condi might be the only Republican who could. Hillary may be at heart a hardcore leftist, but she's deliberately building a moderate record in the Senate, so it'll be hard to use that to attack her as a left-liberal like we did with Kerry. Morris' track record at predictions is less than 100%, but he's still maybe the second most astute political consultant out there, right behind Karl Rove, so I wouldn't discount his opinion, though I might still disagree.
2) Who will be trying for the nomination on our side? Sen. Bill Frist maybe, Colorado Gov. Bill Owens, Jeb Bush (but is the country ready for another Bush so soon?). Newt Gingrich says probably not, but he's obviously thinking about it, and I'm sure Rudy Guiliani is. Arnold Schwarzenegger is a possibility if they pass the amendment in time if at all). I know I must be forgetting some people. What other names can you add to the list?
3) Who has personal/ideological appeal to you as the nominee(s)? (Include a Veep pick if you want.) I'd say Gingrich/Rice. I'm been a fan of the Newtster since before he was Speaker, and I've read some of his books. I think he's one of the smartest people in politics, and not only smart, but a big picture guy who thinks very long term about policy implications. His background as a historian and futurist definitely helps there. He "thinks outside the box" (yeah, it's a cliche, but he really does) and his instincts are libertarian. He didn't always win when tangling with the Clintons as Speaker, but he learns from his mistakes. I'm not sure about his electability but I am sure he'd be an excellent President. I like Condi enough to see her on the top of the ticket too, but it's pretty hard to run for President without ever having held elective office. Veep first, then maybe next time.
4) Personal and ideological appeal aside, who do you think would be the strongest ticket, i.e., the ticket most likely to win against the best the Dems can put up? As much as I love the Newtster, I don't think he's the best we can do on this count. Like Hillary, he's very polarizing, and like Jack Kemp (another old favorite of mine), he tends to talk over the heads of ordinary folk. Considered purely from the standpoint of winning the general election, I think Schwarzenegger/Rice would be the strongest. Ahnold is showing very strong decisive and effective leadership in California, and on that basis would make a good President. And because of that, and even Dems and Independentts can see it, he has enormous popularity in California and likely could deliver the state for us. It's hard to imagine not winning with CA's electoral votes. Against that, he needs an amendment to be legal to run, which might not happen in time, and probably is too socially liberal to be nominated.
You might not think Gingrich/Rice or Schwarzenegger/Rice are realistic, and I've given some reasons why I have my doubts too. But if not them, who? Give me some names and some scenarios.
1) Who are we likely to face on the Democratic ticket? Dick Morris thinks Hillary Clinton is probably going to be the nominee, and he thinks Condi Rice is the Republican most likely to beat her. Worse, he thinks Condi might be the only Republican who could. Hillary may be at heart a hardcore leftist, but she's deliberately building a moderate record in the Senate, so it'll be hard to use that to attack her as a left-liberal like we did with Kerry. Morris' track record at predictions is less than 100%, but he's still maybe the second most astute political consultant out there, right behind Karl Rove, so I wouldn't discount his opinion, though I might still disagree.
2) Who will be trying for the nomination on our side? Sen. Bill Frist maybe, Colorado Gov. Bill Owens, Jeb Bush (but is the country ready for another Bush so soon?). Newt Gingrich says probably not, but he's obviously thinking about it, and I'm sure Rudy Guiliani is. Arnold Schwarzenegger is a possibility if they pass the amendment in time if at all). I know I must be forgetting some people. What other names can you add to the list?
3) Who has personal/ideological appeal to you as the nominee(s)? (Include a Veep pick if you want.) I'd say Gingrich/Rice. I'm been a fan of the Newtster since before he was Speaker, and I've read some of his books. I think he's one of the smartest people in politics, and not only smart, but a big picture guy who thinks very long term about policy implications. His background as a historian and futurist definitely helps there. He "thinks outside the box" (yeah, it's a cliche, but he really does) and his instincts are libertarian. He didn't always win when tangling with the Clintons as Speaker, but he learns from his mistakes. I'm not sure about his electability but I am sure he'd be an excellent President. I like Condi enough to see her on the top of the ticket too, but it's pretty hard to run for President without ever having held elective office. Veep first, then maybe next time.
4) Personal and ideological appeal aside, who do you think would be the strongest ticket, i.e., the ticket most likely to win against the best the Dems can put up? As much as I love the Newtster, I don't think he's the best we can do on this count. Like Hillary, he's very polarizing, and like Jack Kemp (another old favorite of mine), he tends to talk over the heads of ordinary folk. Considered purely from the standpoint of winning the general election, I think Schwarzenegger/Rice would be the strongest. Ahnold is showing very strong decisive and effective leadership in California, and on that basis would make a good President. And because of that, and even Dems and Independentts can see it, he has enormous popularity in California and likely could deliver the state for us. It's hard to imagine not winning with CA's electoral votes. Against that, he needs an amendment to be legal to run, which might not happen in time, and probably is too socially liberal to be nominated.
You might not think Gingrich/Rice or Schwarzenegger/Rice are realistic, and I've given some reasons why I have my doubts too. But if not them, who? Give me some names and some scenarios.
I'm betting on Condi myself. It seems that the administration is preparing her for a run. National Security to learn how politics works, State to get some international experience, then VP. If I'm right, expect Cheney to resign (for health reasons, probably) during 2005 or 2006 and Rice to replace him. If that happens, it's a sure bet that Bush is preparing her to be his replacement.
Can't see Jeb Bush myself. He says no, and too many people would think this was becoming a "family affair". That didn't work with the Kennedys and I don't think it'll work with the Bushes.
All predictions must be assumed to have a low probability right now, though. In March of 2008 we'll have a much clearer idea, but it still might not be all over.
Can't see Jeb Bush myself. He says no, and too many people would think this was becoming a "family affair". That didn't work with the Kennedys and I don't think it'll work with the Bushes.
All predictions must be assumed to have a low probability right now, though. In March of 2008 we'll have a much clearer idea, but it still might not be all over.
Who are we most likely to face on the Democratic ticket?
Hillary has the most name recognition, but might be considered unelectable because of her gender and notoriety. They're going to be careful on whom they choose, because it's impossible to win the nation without taking some states that won't be inclined to vote for someone who uses Dean's "I hate Republicans and all they stand for" rhetoric, which is almost everybody. (Interestingly enough, did you know that Hillary switched parties? She was actually YR leader as an undergrad.)
Who will be trying for the nomination on our side?
Condi would send a clear message of "equal rights, equal justice, and equal opportunity," and be fairly likely to take states such as Pensylvannia and New Hampshire. However, she could lose Ohio. Rudy seems to be prepping for it, and I wouldn't count out McCain, Cheney, or Powell, regardless of what they say. If Romney loses up here, he might give it a go.
Who has personal/ideological appeal to you as the nominee(s)?
I'm hoping for McCain. Barring him, I'll vote for anyone who isn't downright nasty to the other side (eg, Godwin rhetoric).
Personal and ideological appeal aside, who do you think would be the strongest ticket, i.e., the ticket most likely to win against the best the Dems can put up?
Again, a lot of Democrats might vote for a black woman over a white man, even from their own party, especially in the bluer swing states. At this point, only a candidate perceived as a moderate is really electable. Cheney, for exaple, couldn't win unless the Democrats pick a complete loser (for example, John Kerry, who did appalingly even here).
Hillary has the most name recognition, but might be considered unelectable because of her gender and notoriety. They're going to be careful on whom they choose, because it's impossible to win the nation without taking some states that won't be inclined to vote for someone who uses Dean's "I hate Republicans and all they stand for" rhetoric, which is almost everybody. (Interestingly enough, did you know that Hillary switched parties? She was actually YR leader as an undergrad.)
Who will be trying for the nomination on our side?
Condi would send a clear message of "equal rights, equal justice, and equal opportunity," and be fairly likely to take states such as Pensylvannia and New Hampshire. However, she could lose Ohio. Rudy seems to be prepping for it, and I wouldn't count out McCain, Cheney, or Powell, regardless of what they say. If Romney loses up here, he might give it a go.
Who has personal/ideological appeal to you as the nominee(s)?
I'm hoping for McCain. Barring him, I'll vote for anyone who isn't downright nasty to the other side (eg, Godwin rhetoric).
Personal and ideological appeal aside, who do you think would be the strongest ticket, i.e., the ticket most likely to win against the best the Dems can put up?
Again, a lot of Democrats might vote for a black woman over a white man, even from their own party, especially in the bluer swing states. At this point, only a candidate perceived as a moderate is really electable. Cheney, for exaple, couldn't win unless the Democrats pick a complete loser (for example, John Kerry, who did appalingly even here).
I like Condoleeza Rice a lot, but I don't see her as a strong enough candidate for the 2008 race. I'm not sure who exactly, but I'd prefer not to see McCain or Giuliani in the nomination.
Hillary, may very well be the next Democratic Nominee, but I also don't believe her to be too strong of a force. She's tainted goods, and her sudden lurch to the center will definitely draw suspicion. My fear for the 2008 election however would be a Clinton/McCain ticket, as McCain will be able to drag in enough fence sitters for Hillary.
Hillary, may very well be the next Democratic Nominee, but I also don't believe her to be too strong of a force. She's tainted goods, and her sudden lurch to the center will definitely draw suspicion. My fear for the 2008 election however would be a Clinton/McCain ticket, as McCain will be able to drag in enough fence sitters for Hillary.
I think that the Democratic ticket is Hillary's to lose. There isn't much strength in the Democratic Party other than her so she is the likely nominee. A VP will be harder to find unless Edwards wants to give it another go.
Condaleeza Rice will be an excellent candidate...for 2012 or beyond. But in '08...she is the ideal vice presidential candidate. The problem is just that she doesnt have a domestic policy and until we know what it is...we can't run her for president. She has dealt with only foreign policy as NSA and Sec of State. She needs more time...thats all.
The Repub presidential nominee should be interesting. Mccain is an obvious choice because of his charisma and respect by both sides of the isle. He is one of those Senators like Lieberman who seem like they are truly looking out for the American people instead of playing partisan politics. However, he is getting quite old and it might be tough for him.
Guiliani is a guy i def like being from NY and all. But his liberal social views will destroy him with the christian right.
Jeb Bush has made clear he does not want to be president in 2008 and i dont think that the Repubs would give him the nominee because the American people dont want a Bush Monarchy so to speak.
What the Republicans need is a leader. A strong, charismatic and articulate kind of guy (or girl). The people will follow a leader as will i. Some of the governors may be pretty good politicians, (Pataki, exc...)...but i dont see leadership. Newt Gingrich strikes me with strength...but he is also unlikely to win.
I honestly dont know who the Repubs should run. Someone has to step up.
Condaleeza Rice will be an excellent candidate...for 2012 or beyond. But in '08...she is the ideal vice presidential candidate. The problem is just that she doesnt have a domestic policy and until we know what it is...we can't run her for president. She has dealt with only foreign policy as NSA and Sec of State. She needs more time...thats all.
The Repub presidential nominee should be interesting. Mccain is an obvious choice because of his charisma and respect by both sides of the isle. He is one of those Senators like Lieberman who seem like they are truly looking out for the American people instead of playing partisan politics. However, he is getting quite old and it might be tough for him.
Guiliani is a guy i def like being from NY and all. But his liberal social views will destroy him with the christian right.
Jeb Bush has made clear he does not want to be president in 2008 and i dont think that the Repubs would give him the nominee because the American people dont want a Bush Monarchy so to speak.
What the Republicans need is a leader. A strong, charismatic and articulate kind of guy (or girl). The people will follow a leader as will i. Some of the governors may be pretty good politicians, (Pataki, exc...)...but i dont see leadership. Newt Gingrich strikes me with strength...but he is also unlikely to win.
I honestly dont know who the Repubs should run. Someone has to step up.
1) Well, the question as to the ticket that the Democrats will field in 2008 is an interesting one, but unfortunately is easily answered. Senator Hillary Clinton is a shoe-in for the presidential nomination. You might be tempted to scoff because many believe that the Democrats will sensibly move to the political center. Well, if the failures of past left-wing candidates like Hubert Humphrey, George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, George Dukakis, and Al Gore didn't teach the Democrats sensibility than the spectacular loss of John Kerry isn't going to teach them either. The liberal wing of the party has been in control since the 1968, and it's going to take a couple more defeats to get centrists in the party to the helm. However, that's not to say they won't try to appear middle-of-the-road. It's likely that a moderate will be chosen as her running mate. Many point to Senator Evan Bayh as a clear choice, but only one presidential ticket with two senators has been successful...the Kennedy/Johnson ticket in 1960. So, it will more likely be a showdown between Nevada Governor Janet Nepolitano or New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. Both of these are common sense politicians that know how to survive in the so called "red states." It's likely that Americans aren't ready for a ticket with two women on it because let's face it chauvinism is alive and well in many parts of the country. So, I think Governor Richardson will squeak by on that.
2) There is a plethora of candidates to step up. There will likely be candidates to represent the different wings of the party. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist represents the conservative wing that has ruled the party for so long now. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the posterboy for the northeastern establishment that controlled the party before the election of 1968. Senator John McCain has developed his own following and attracts members of the party from across the spectrum. Both Senator McCain and Mr. Giuliani are both spokesmen for the left-wing of the party that's been itching to get back at the helm. I'm sure Condoleeza Rice will throw her name in the race because of her growing popularity in the party, and Republicans are looking for an anti-Hillary. This isn't the time for Governor Jeb Bush. No one wants another Bush right now. The analogy between the Kennedys and the Bushes is a good one. Dynasties tend to spring up every now and then...the Adamses, the Harrisons, and the Roosevelts, but they don't last. I doubt that we're going to have twelve straight years of the Bushes.
3) For me the ticket with the most appeal would be McCain/Rice. John McCain would be a good center-right candidate for the office. He's strong on defence, and he has a pragmatic view of economic issues. He doesn't make decisions based on what's conservative or what's liberal. He appears to make decisions on issues as they manifest themselves, and I like that. Many believe that he would lose the vital support of conservatives, but this way if the Democrats are foolish enough to nominate Senator Clinton or another liberal for the presidential race he'll offset any loss by attracting independents and moderate Democrats tired of liberal ideologism. If they nominate a candidate more in the mean than the Arizona Senator's centrism will only balance the equation. A more conservative candidate would be open to attack from a moderate Democrat like President Bush the elder was when President Clinton first ran in 1992. Condoleeza Rice to me is a whim. She seems like the perfect candidate to fight Hillary except she has no experience when it comes to domestic politics. That's why I'd like to see her Vice President for eight years to get her some experience in the area. This way she'll be primed for 2016. (Sorry, I'm way ahead of myself.) She's conservative and can appeal to the religious right. That's important in a running mate for McCain that needs to be able to drum up support from the party's base. On top of that I'd like to see woman that's not Senator Clinton and an African-American that's not Senator Barak Obama get into the White House. Senator Obama is another factor to consider. If he's going to run in say 2012 or 2016 depending on how things go the Republican Party needs to have a black candidate on the ticket.
4) The strongest ticket for the 2008 race will probably be...Actually I've no clue. None of the candidates are perfect. Senator Frist has the perfect politics, but he's not exactly inspiring. Senator McCain and Rudy Giuliani are not in the mainstream of the party, and Condoleeza Rice and Newt Gingrich aren't in the best of spots. Probably the person with the best politics and track record is Jeb Bush. The Bush factor is there, but it can be overcome if Governor Bush has the personality. He certainly is more personable than his brother President Bush. It's really too early to call.
2) There is a plethora of candidates to step up. There will likely be candidates to represent the different wings of the party. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist represents the conservative wing that has ruled the party for so long now. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the posterboy for the northeastern establishment that controlled the party before the election of 1968. Senator John McCain has developed his own following and attracts members of the party from across the spectrum. Both Senator McCain and Mr. Giuliani are both spokesmen for the left-wing of the party that's been itching to get back at the helm. I'm sure Condoleeza Rice will throw her name in the race because of her growing popularity in the party, and Republicans are looking for an anti-Hillary. This isn't the time for Governor Jeb Bush. No one wants another Bush right now. The analogy between the Kennedys and the Bushes is a good one. Dynasties tend to spring up every now and then...the Adamses, the Harrisons, and the Roosevelts, but they don't last. I doubt that we're going to have twelve straight years of the Bushes.
3) For me the ticket with the most appeal would be McCain/Rice. John McCain would be a good center-right candidate for the office. He's strong on defence, and he has a pragmatic view of economic issues. He doesn't make decisions based on what's conservative or what's liberal. He appears to make decisions on issues as they manifest themselves, and I like that. Many believe that he would lose the vital support of conservatives, but this way if the Democrats are foolish enough to nominate Senator Clinton or another liberal for the presidential race he'll offset any loss by attracting independents and moderate Democrats tired of liberal ideologism. If they nominate a candidate more in the mean than the Arizona Senator's centrism will only balance the equation. A more conservative candidate would be open to attack from a moderate Democrat like President Bush the elder was when President Clinton first ran in 1992. Condoleeza Rice to me is a whim. She seems like the perfect candidate to fight Hillary except she has no experience when it comes to domestic politics. That's why I'd like to see her Vice President for eight years to get her some experience in the area. This way she'll be primed for 2016. (Sorry, I'm way ahead of myself.) She's conservative and can appeal to the religious right. That's important in a running mate for McCain that needs to be able to drum up support from the party's base. On top of that I'd like to see woman that's not Senator Clinton and an African-American that's not Senator Barak Obama get into the White House. Senator Obama is another factor to consider. If he's going to run in say 2012 or 2016 depending on how things go the Republican Party needs to have a black candidate on the ticket.
4) The strongest ticket for the 2008 race will probably be...Actually I've no clue. None of the candidates are perfect. Senator Frist has the perfect politics, but he's not exactly inspiring. Senator McCain and Rudy Giuliani are not in the mainstream of the party, and Condoleeza Rice and Newt Gingrich aren't in the best of spots. Probably the person with the best politics and track record is Jeb Bush. The Bush factor is there, but it can be overcome if Governor Bush has the personality. He certainly is more personable than his brother President Bush. It's really too early to call.
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