Full Version: Iraq's New Leadership
The top post in the new elected Iraqi government is looking pretty clear.
Shiites Name Jafari as PM Candidate
Shia alliance names PM candidate
Questions for Debate:
Is Ibrahim Jafari a good choice for the post of Iraqi Prime Minister?
Do you believe the current political situation will work to improve the lives of the Iraqi people?
What does this mean for the "puppet government" theory on America's involvement in Iraq?
QUOTE(Washington Post)
Iraq's majority Shiite coalition has chosen Ibrahim Jafari, Iraq's interim vice president, to be its candidate for the powerful post of prime minister of Iraq.
The coalition's decision, while not the last word, is crucially important. The United Iraqi Alliance holds 140 of the new assembly's 275 seats following the country's Jan. 30 election and has the tacit support of the country's most influential religious leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. [...]
His party has long advocated a religious government. But in a recent interview with The Washington Post, he said Dawa had tempered that desire to accommodate secular and non-Muslim Iraqis. Jafari said Dawa did not "aim to establish an Islamic state to apply the Islamic sharia," or law. Instead, it would establish a government "respecting human rights and applying justice and respecting the rights of women."
Jafari also said that his new government would include all ethnic parties, including Sunnis who boycotted the election.
"Every country has its own character," he said. "Not all Iraqis are Muslims. Not all Muslims are Shia. Not all Shia are Islamic. We have to have a system that is open to all components of society."
The coalition's decision, while not the last word, is crucially important. The United Iraqi Alliance holds 140 of the new assembly's 275 seats following the country's Jan. 30 election and has the tacit support of the country's most influential religious leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. [...]
His party has long advocated a religious government. But in a recent interview with The Washington Post, he said Dawa had tempered that desire to accommodate secular and non-Muslim Iraqis. Jafari said Dawa did not "aim to establish an Islamic state to apply the Islamic sharia," or law. Instead, it would establish a government "respecting human rights and applying justice and respecting the rights of women."
Jafari also said that his new government would include all ethnic parties, including Sunnis who boycotted the election.
"Every country has its own character," he said. "Not all Iraqis are Muslims. Not all Muslims are Shia. Not all Shia are Islamic. We have to have a system that is open to all components of society."
Shiites Name Jafari as PM Candidate
QUOTE(BBC)
Correspondents say Mr Jaafari would be a popular choice, as he is seen as less corrupt and as having a good relationship with Iran but not as close to the Iranian government as some other Shia politicians.
Opinion polls indicate Mr Jaafari - a moderate Shia Muslim - is the most trusted politician in the country.
Opinion polls indicate Mr Jaafari - a moderate Shia Muslim - is the most trusted politician in the country.
Shia alliance names PM candidate
Questions for Debate:
Is Ibrahim Jafari a good choice for the post of Iraqi Prime Minister?
Do you believe the current political situation will work to improve the lives of the Iraqi people?
What does this mean for the "puppet government" theory on America's involvement in Iraq?
Is Ibrahim Jafari a good choice for the post of Iraqi Prime Minister?
It looks like he is. He's probably the best that we could hope for. He's not Chalabi, that much we know...
Do you believe the current political situation will work to improve the lives of the Iraqi people?
It's too early to tell. First and foremost, they must draft a Constitution and get it passed. If any three provinces reject it, it's back to the drawing board. Right now, it's wheel and deal time, and we won't know what it really looks like until a Constitution is drafted, and accepted. The Sunni's can, and probably will vote on the Constitution, so they still have some power, even if they have no representation. If they can turn provinces, they can block a Constitution indefinitely. Interestingly, that clause was added by the Kurds, most likely to block Islamic Law in the Constitution.
What does this mean for the "puppet government" theory on America's involvement in Iraq?
The fact that Allawi's Coalition didn't rake in the votes is a good thing for getting away from the "puppet government" motif. We'll see how much the US can actually stay out of it as to what the verdict is.
It looks like he is. He's probably the best that we could hope for. He's not Chalabi, that much we know...
Do you believe the current political situation will work to improve the lives of the Iraqi people?
It's too early to tell. First and foremost, they must draft a Constitution and get it passed. If any three provinces reject it, it's back to the drawing board. Right now, it's wheel and deal time, and we won't know what it really looks like until a Constitution is drafted, and accepted. The Sunni's can, and probably will vote on the Constitution, so they still have some power, even if they have no representation. If they can turn provinces, they can block a Constitution indefinitely. Interestingly, that clause was added by the Kurds, most likely to block Islamic Law in the Constitution.
What does this mean for the "puppet government" theory on America's involvement in Iraq?
The fact that Allawi's Coalition didn't rake in the votes is a good thing for getting away from the "puppet government" motif. We'll see how much the US can actually stay out of it as to what the verdict is.
QUOTE(Antny @ Feb 22 2005, 05:33 PM)
It looks like he is. He's probably the best that we could hope for. He's not Chalabi, that much we know...
Anyone watching the situation would have know it could never have been Chalabi. I found it a little amusing to watch the press paint this as some sort of actual contest. In my blog, I posted that Jafaari was the choice in no uncertain terms a week ago.
QUOTE(Antny)
It's too early to tell. First and foremost, they must draft a Constitution and get it passed. If any three provinces reject it, it's back to the drawing board. Right now, it's wheel and deal time, and we won't know what it really looks like until a Constitution is drafted, and accepted. The Sunni's can, and probably will vote on the Constitution, so they still have some power, even if they have no representation. If they can turn provinces, they can block a Constitution indefinitely. Interestingly, that clause was added by the Kurds, most likely to block Islamic Law in the Constitution.
Yes, but there is no real reason for the Sunnis to vote it down. They have absolutely nothing to gain and little to lose by support. The glory day of unequal power are over and I think most Sunnis know it.
...and I think the provision will result in a more liberal democracy in Iraq. Even the UIA is saying they don't want a theocracy and won't insist on Sharia as the basis of law.
QUOTE(Antny)
The fact that Allawi's Coalition didn't rake in the votes is a good thing for getting away from the "puppet government" motif. We'll see how much the US can actually stay out of it as to what the verdict is.
I suspect it will be almost totally, it will be good to see an end to the conspiracy theories.
Though I'm sure new ones will pop up immediately.
QUOTE
The fact that Allawi's Coalition didn't rake in the votes is a good thing for getting away from the "puppet government" motif. We'll see how much the US can actually stay out of it as to what the verdict is.
Allawi aint done yet--he wants to try and challenge and is trying to work up the support.
Is Ibrahim Jafari a good choice for the post of Iraqi Prime Minister? Yeah I think he could be--but I don't envy him the task. trying to create unity in Iraq will require some clever negotiating.
Do you believe the current political situation will work to improve the lives of the Iraqi people? Again it depends on many factors. The kurds for example will not give up on the idea of independence easily--or the oil under Kirkuk. Add that they want the Arabs that Saddam moved there to try and establish arab control of Kirkuk OUT. I dont think this point is negotiable.
I think the threat of the Iran mullah angle is overrated. There seems to be plenty of factionalism inside the Sunnis that should prevent Iran from gaining undue influence.
There is even a strong secular showing represented in Iraq's population.
My suggestion would be to remove foreign business interests and allow the Iraqis to rebuild their economy and produce the most necessary Iraqi need--Jobs.
Want to tamp down the violence--get them employed and making money and democracy will survive and thrive. Maintain the unemployment levels and I would predict enough unrest and discontent to lead only to civil war.
QUOTE
Yes, but there is no real reason for the Sunnis to vote it down. They have absolutely nothing to gain and little to lose by support. The glory day of unequal power are over and I think most Sunnis know it.
I would think that the Sunnis would probably use the vote to block anything they didn't like. They don't have much to "gain" but they've got an aweful lot to "lose". If the tides turn against them completely, they will "pay" for their oppressive control dearly. They will use whatever little power they have remaining to their full advantage. They know they have to, or they will become the "victims"
themselves.It's not gonna be easy to draft a Constitution that will pass in all the necessary provinces. Unless they don't address some of the real difficult "demands" from either side. Mostly, like Christopher said, the difficult cases points will be the ones of transplanted peoples, and territory disputes within Iraq.
I just found this link: http://www.cpa-iraq.org/government/TAL.html
It looks like a good start, but I haven't really read it all, just a quick glance. Things may be going in the right direction. Let's cross our fingers
QUOTE(christopher @ Feb 23 2005, 03:05 PM)
Allawi aint done yet--he wants to try and challenge and is trying to work up the support.
...and his run will end just like Chalabi's. As long as Jafari keeps his tone as moderate as it is know and doesn't worry the Kurds with Sharia law he's got the job. Barring any violent end, you can bank on it.
QUOTE(christopher)
Again it depends on many factors. The kurds for example will not give up on the idea of independence easily--or the oil under Kirkuk. Add that they want the Arabs that Saddam moved there to try and establish arab control of Kirkuk OUT. I dont think this point is negotiable.
It will be soon...
No one said working out a stable country would be easy, but at least now real negotiations can begin. My guess, the Kurds ain't getting Kirkuk. They'll have a semi-autonomous region to themselves with federal representation and one of the strongest economies in the country. My guess: They'll take the deal and leave Kirkuk as something for future politicians to offer to the populace.
Gotta have something to run on...
QUOTE(christopher)
I think the threat of the Iran mullah angle is overrated. There seems to be plenty of factionalism inside the Sunnis that should prevent Iran from gaining undue influence.
There is even a strong secular showing represented in Iraq's population.
My suggestion would be to remove foreign business interests and allow the Iraqis to rebuild their economy and produce the most necessary Iraqi need--Jobs.
Want to tamp down the violence--get them employed and making money and democracy will survive and thrive. Maintain the unemployment levels and I would predict enough unrest and discontent to lead only to civil war.
There is even a strong secular showing represented in Iraq's population.
My suggestion would be to remove foreign business interests and allow the Iraqis to rebuild their economy and produce the most necessary Iraqi need--Jobs.
Want to tamp down the violence--get them employed and making money and democracy will survive and thrive. Maintain the unemployment levels and I would predict enough unrest and discontent to lead only to civil war.
Agreed, I think foreign investment in important, but the new Iraqi government would benefit from some measure of protectionism.
QUOTE(Antny @ Feb 23 2005, 03:29 PM)
I would think that the Sunnis would probably use the vote to block anything they didn't like. They don't have much to "gain" but they've got an aweful lot to "lose". If the tides turn against them completely, they will "pay" for their oppressive control dearly. They will use whatever little power they have remaining to their full advantage. They know they have to, or they will become the "victims" themselves.
themselves.As long as the constitution has provisions for limits to the government's use of force and allows for a robust judicial system the Sunnis will be fine.
Very, few Shia are pushing for revenge. They got control of the country, that'll be enough.
QUOTE(Antny)
It's not gonna be easy to draft a Constitution that will pass in all the necessary provinces. Unless they don't address some of the real difficult "demands" from either side. Mostly, like Christopher said, the difficult cases points will be the ones of transplanted peoples, and territory disputes within Iraq.
I just found this link: http://www.cpa-iraq.org/government/TAL.html
It looks like a good start, but I haven't really read it all, just a quick glance. Things may be going in the right direction. Let's cross our fingers
I just found this link: http://www.cpa-iraq.org/government/TAL.html
It looks like a good start, but I haven't really read it all, just a quick glance. Things may be going in the right direction. Let's cross our fingers
Oh, that's the old transitional law that applied to the interim period, it's been in place for about a year now.The new assembly will work on a permanent constitution, written directly by Iraqis.
This is a simplified version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.