QUOTE(lordhelmet @ May 5 2005, 07:46 PM)
Why do you insist on attributing ideas to me that I did not post. Where did I "claim that the Iraqis love us"??? You are inventing points that were not made in order to knock them down. You do know what that is called, don't you?
Garsh darnit, feller, I shore can't think of what it might be called. I'm jus' too dumb, ya know?
Seriously, I erred in making that claim. You have painted overly rosy pictures of Iraqi gratitude for American magnanimity, but you have never claimed that they love us. For that mistake, I apologize.
QUOTE(lordhelmet @ May 5 2005, 07:46 PM)
So Japan and Germany post WWII are "much more complex" than Iraq? So lets just assume that you're correct on that point. If we were able to institute democracy in a situation that was "far more complex" in those two countries, then it should be relatively simple in Iraq, right?
Oh, dear. After the first long history lesson I wanted to avoid another long lecture. I'll try to keep it brief. Germany has a tradition conducive to democracy traceable all the way back to the Roman era. The Roman historian Tacitus described their social arrangements in his description of Germany, "Germania". It wasn't anything like a modern formal democracy, but neither was it anything at all like monarchy or aristocracy. The political system was highly decentralized, with various leaders at various levels, but even then there was a strong sense of a man's rights and the need for leaders to obtain popular assent for actions. The Swiss direct democracy is a direct descendent of some of these ancient customs.
We can see the historical consequences of this in English history and its long tradition toward democratic restraints on centralized power. In Germany, this manifested itself in an inability to coalesce any kind of strong authority right up until 1860. Moreover, German society was broken up by all manner of local democratic power centers; the guilds, the burgers, the hansa, and so on. A local prince might oversee the whole show but his powers were greatly limited by the various rights of all the different groups.
You might find this hard to believe, but for most of the last thousand years the Germans were seen as hopelessly unmilitary because nobody could force anybody to serve in their armies. It wasn't until Freddie the G that they had any kind of decent army, and they didn't start to lionize the military until the wars of unification in the latter 19th century.
Anyway, this basically democratic stance was fundamental to German politics. Even with unification under the Hohenzollerns, local rights were demanded and respected. Bismarck created the first pension system in the world largely as a way of gaining crucial popular support. Even his most outrageous ploy, the Ems telegram, was largely directed towards gaining popular support for a war that he just couldn't get public support for otherwise (nothing ever changes, does it?)
When Kaiser Wilhelm abdicated in 1918, there was a period of anarchy, but the Germans quickly settled onto a republic. Note that this happened without outside support -- they did it all by themselves. There was lots of political instability during the 20s, including violent attempts to overthrow the republic, none of which succeeded. The Weimar republic held together until it was subverted by Hitler -- but only after he had won a democratic election.
Thus, when the Americans overran Germany in 1945, they did not bestow democracy upon the Germans -- they restored democracy that had been steadily strengthening for a thousand years. Indeed, the East Berlin rebellion of 1953 demonstrates how seriously the Germans took democracy. That story is complex, too, but basically it was not an attempt to throw out the Russians, it was an attempt to hold the new East German government to promises it had made for democratic participation in various actions (although the specific trigger was a labor dispute).
Japan is a fascinating story. Unlike the Germans, they had absolutely no democratic tradition, but they did have an extremely strong tradition of obedience to authority. MacArthur dictated a constitution, the Emperor told the Japanese people to embrace it, and they embraced it. The early years of the Japanese democracy were a bit of a farce -- they really didn't know how to go about the business, and so they, in essence, asked how they were supposed to vote on various issues and they voted as they were told.
It took about twenty years to get some actual debate going on, and Japanese democracy continued to operate under the consensual style that is the hallmark of Japanese society rather than the adversarial model that is the hallmark of our own. This made for very boring politics and a sense that elections were mere formalities. Only in the last ten or twenty years, especially since Koizumi, have we seen anything like democracy as we know it. All in all, I'd say it took about 40 or 50 years for Japan to learn democracy. And that is with a homogeneous, highly cooperative society.
Iraq, by contrast, has none of the democratic tradition that Germany had and none of the social cohesion or respect for authority that made Japanese democratization possible. It's a completely different -- and much worse -- candidate for democracy. If they're very lucky, they might have a functioning democracy in 50 years, but they'll have to go through a lot of ugly turmoil to achieve that. The most likely scenarios have strongmen running the show for at least a few decades -- some of which might be worse than Saddam.
But what the hey -- we can always invade all over again, can't we?