Questions for debate:

1. Do they want to goad the Bush regime into attacking now, while American forces are over-extended?


2. Is Russia and/or China influencing North Korea's actions in hopes of avoiding an attack on Iran or Venezuela by distracting the Bush regime, or are North Korea's leaders playing this game on their own?


3. Why won't China agree to impose sanctions on North Korea?


4. What will the Bush regime do about this, if anything?


5. What would you do in this situation if you ruled America? Would you attack?


6. What would you do in this situation if you ruled North Korea? Would you keep trying to create nukes, or keep telling everyone you had done so? What would you do if you ruled China?

1) I think North Korea's resumption of its nuclear weapon program was probably brought about by Bush's 'Axis of Evil' speech. Same thing with Iran....they fear an American invasion within the next decade or so, so want to deter this by getting nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons remain the grand equaliser - however large your army is, if your enemy has nuclear weaponry, then they can destory your cities and there is nothing you can do.
So I don't think they are trying to goad America into attacking - for one thing, any American attack, even if ultimately unsuccesful in regime change, could easily destabilise the country enough for the regime to collapse on its own.

2) I am not sure why you mention Venezuala. Attacking Venezuala (a nuclear free country governed by someone who, albeit not a great leader, was still democratically elected). But no, China and Russia want less American presence in Asia, not more. The more agressively North Korea behaves, the greater America's presence in Asia will be (and the higher the chances of Japan scrapping its current constitutional barriers on defence policy and having greater involvement in military affairs).

3) Cause sanctions never achieve very much (look at Cuba) and China wants a stable, quiet North Korea. Sanctions may tip the country into famine, which would lead to a huge refugee problem for China.

4) I think the Bush regime will probably try to get more help from China on this issue. China would be the obvious place to try and impose leverage, as they supply power to the country.

5) Attacking North Korea would be risking military confrontation with China. There is also a distinct possibility that Americans (and its allies) would lose against North Koreans on North Korean soil, as the NK army is quite large.

6) If I ruled North Korea I would scrap the nuclear program, adopt wide-ranging economic reforms, start up the democractic process and possibly even consult South Korea on the possibility of re-unification, 20 or 30 years down the line (which is an optimistic appraisal of how long it would take North Korean living standrads to match South Korea if reforms were adopted today). If I ruled China I would start up the democratic process and do everything in my power to remove Kim Jon Il. I would also stop trying to force Taiwan to reunify......

Okay, answer no. 6 was a little tounge in cheek, but that is what I would do if in charge!

Your number 6 answer, tongue in cheek or not, does make me wonder something:

Why is China willing to irritate the US over Taiwan, and butt heads with other nations over it, too? Is this some kind of pride issue, or a deliberate attempt to annoy and worry other nations, or does China really care about one sliver of a manufacturing island, considering the mainland's thriving industrial base?

Don't answer that. It's off topic. I'm going to throw it down in the international debate forum and see if it floats!




Oh yeah, I do have one question that is on topic: How likely would North Korea's government be to survive if you were suddenly in Kim Jon Il's shoes? (Assume you are wearing thick protective socks, of course!)